The Posting Will Continue Until Morale Improves

On Monday morning, CNN reported that the United States and Iran had been on the verge of striking a deal to end the war when Donald Trump made a series of comments to reporters and on social media that undermined the talks. “The Iranians didn’t appreciate POTUS negotiating through social media and making it appear as if they had signed off on issues they hadn’t yet agreed to, and ones that aren’t popular with their people back home,” complained one source, who apparently pleaded with his boss to stop.

This was Trump’s signal to begin binge-posting about the Iran negotiations. The Iranians may not have appreciated Trump’s stream-of-consciousness messaging, and apparently their American counterparts did not either. But one very important person did.

Trump can’t seem to refrain from touting his genius, especially when the subject is dealmaking, his professed speciality. And so, in a torrent of commentary, the president made the case that he is winning very greatly.

Already, despite the president’s surface bravado, an undercurrent of nervousness had emerged. Trump was favorably comparing his prospective deal with the Obama administration’s in 2015. “The DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA, commonly referred to as ‘The Iran Nuclear Deal,’ penned by Barack Hussein Obama and Sleepy Joe Biden, one of the Worst Deals ever made having to do with the Security of our Country,” he wrote on Monday. Simultaneously touting your prospective deal while comparing it to the worst deal ever is a bit like saying, I’m a fantastic basketball player, much better than my late grandmother, who never played the game.

[Tom Nichols: Maybe Trump should not have given this speech]

In a follow-up post, five minutes later, Trump addressed concerns that the war had gone beyond his promised six-week deadline. His technique, once again, was to reframe expectations. “Despite World War I lasting 4 years, 3 months, and 14 days, World War II lasting 6 years and 1 day, the Korean War lasting 3 years, 1 month, and 2 days, the Vietnam War lasting 19 years, 5 months, and 29 days, and Iraq lasting 8 years, 8 months, and 28 days, they like to say that I promised 6 weeks to defeat Iran, and actually, from the Military standpoint, it was far faster than that, but I’m not going to let them rush the United States into making a Deal that is not as good as it could have been.” (Luckily, he seems unfamiliar with the Hundred Years’ War.)

In the same post, he proceeded to assert, “I read the Fake News saying that I am under ‘pressure’ to make a Deal. THIS IS NOT TRUE! I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly!”

Generally speaking, people who are not under pressure rarely have to (1) issue frantic, all-caps claims that they are not under pressure, or (2) promise that they will quickly deliver a deal that will cause them tremendous embarrassment if it fails.

Thirty-six minutes later, the president posted again. “I’m winning a War, BY A LOT, things are going very well,” he wrote, before attacking the “Fake News” for suggesting otherwise. The president also claimed that the American naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is costing Iran $500 million a day. He would repeat this point three more times over the course of several hours, as if pleading with his counterparties to see fiscal reason. (Religious fanatics, alas, do not always respond to the same incentives as New York developers.)

The next morning, Trump posted, “Iran has Violated the Cease Fire numerous times!” By afternoon, however, all was forgiven: The president announced, non-desperately, that he was extending the cease-fire despite Iran’s repeated violations, “based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured.”

[Read: One of these Trump threats is not like the others]

Iran’s internal fractures, which are very real and deepened by the decapitation strikes by the U.S. and Israel, have indeed made negotiations complex. By yesterday, the administration had decided to give the country through the weekend to resolve its regime schism. “Trump is willing to give another three to five days of ceasefire to allow the Iranians to get their shit together,” a source told Axios.

It is hard to believe that the Iranians could quickly resolve their deep-seated divisions even under optimal conditions. It is even harder to believe that a vague deadline of three to five days would meaningfully accelerate the timeline in which they could do so, given that Trump has relaxed his previous deadline despite Iran flouting the truce terms.

Yesterday, The Washington Post reported that Trump “has authorized U.S. negotiators to consider a bargain that involves many of the same trade-offs one of his predecessors confronted.” Somehow, the great dealmaker, operating under no pressure whatsoever, might end up striking a pact similar to one of history’s worst deals ever. Can the terms be improved with a few more social-media posts?

Trump returned to Truth Social this morning to narrate the war. “Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is!” he wrote. However, he continued, the strait “is ‘Sealed up Tight,’ until such time as Iran is able to make a DEAL!!!”

According to the president, we are holding the world economy hostage until such time as Iran can resolve its internal struggle. Perhaps the problem here is not just Trump’s live commentary about his negotiating strategy, but the strategy itself.