No load-shedding in sight as Eskom forecasts stable winter supply

South Africa is set for a stable electricity supply this winter. Eskom says load-shedding is unlikely between April and August this year, thanks to improved plant performance and stronger system reliability.

Presenting its winter outlook on Wednesday, the utility attributed the positive trend to fewer unplanned breakdowns across its coal fleet, stronger maintenance execution and a sustained reduction in reliance on emergency diesel-fired generation. 

“Eskom enters the 2026 winter season with a resilient power system, projecting a winter period of continued energy stability,” the utility said, adding that the generation recovery plan had moved the organisation “beyond short-term recovery into a phase of stability and sustained energy security (dependable access to electricity over time)”.

The utility said the improved outlook was reflected in higher energy availability over the past financial year, alongside a marked reduction in unplanned outages, which had historically been a key driver of load-shedding.

“Reduced unplanned losses and strengthened operational buffers support a stable winter outlook, with sufficient capacity to meet expected demand,” Eskom said, noting that the system was operating with a surplus capacity margin (more electricity supply than needed) over the winter period.

In 2025, South Africa saw extended periods without load-shedding. That followed improved generation performance and reduced unplanned outages. However, the system remained sensitive to plant reliability fluctuations.

Eskom group executive for generation Bheki Nxumalo said the operational turnaround had also delivered significant financial savings. “It was very difficult to embed cost savings when our generation fleet was unstable. Today, we have dramatically reduced diesel dependency and saved R26.9 billion compared to FY2023,” he said.

Nxumalo said improved baseload performance — steady output from power plants that ran continuously — had supported key sectors of the economy. 

“Every megawatt we return contributes toward economic growth. The restoration of a consistent baseload electricity supply has enabled Eskom to support industries in distress, particularly the ferrochrome industry and play a meaningful role in preventing job losses,” he said.

Group chief executive Dan Marokane said Eskom was operating from a more stable technical foundation. That enabled more structured long-term planning. “Eskom, and in turn South Africa, now has a stable electricity platform to operate and grow from.” 

Despite the improved outlook, Eskom cautioned that longer-term supply risks remained.The utility flagged possible constraints between 2029 and 2030. Those might arise if new generation capacity was not delivered on schedule, in line with national planning assumptions.

It also noted delays in the rollout of renewable energy projects. Only about half the awarded projects had reached completion, highlighting challenges in expanding generation capacity at the needed pace to match future demand growth.

“The new capacity required by 2030 requires the collective delivery by Eskom and IPPs [independent power producers] of a combined rollout of approximately 10.3GW of solar PV, 7.4GW of wind, 3.7GW of energy storage and 6GW of gas to ensure energy security. 

“Dispatchable capacity, particularly baseload gas‑to‑power available on a continuous 24/7 basis, remains a critical enabler for the large‑scale integration of renewable energy and the preservation of overall system and network reliability.

“As a disciplined and efficient system operator, Eskom will continue to responsibly operate, maintain and safeguard the five coal‑fired power stations until new generation capacity is contractually secured and demonstrably available,” it said.

Eskom was expected to make a decision on additional generation capacity by the second quarter of the 2027 financial year. The decision would be critical in maintaining supply adequacy beyond the current planning horizon, it said.