Zillow just downgraded its home price forecast across over 400 housing markets—see the map

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Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will shift +0.0% between March 2026 and March 2027.

That’s a mild downward revision from its 12-month forecast published last month (+0.5%).

U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up +0.8% year-over-year. Zillow’s latest 12-month outlook (+0.0%) expects national home prices to remain near that subdued pace. As long as national home price growth remains below U.S. income growth (currently up +3.9%), underlying fundamentals should continue to improve as the Pandemic Housing Boom’s housing demand pull ahead and overheating gets smoothed out. If that trend continues—and mortgage rates don’t spike—national housing affordability should also continue to gradually improve.

While Zillow’s national home price forecast isn’t negative—it isn’t exactly bullish either. They’re calling for a soft national housing market in 2026, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.

What type of regional variation does Zillow anticipate over the next 12 months?

Click here for an interactive version of Zillow’s forecast for over 400 markets

Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow forecast the biggest home price increase between March 2026 and March 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:

1. Syracuse, NY —> +5.0%
2. Rockford, IL —> +4.5%
3. Atlantic City, NJ —> +4.5%
4. Rochester, NY —> +4.0%
5. Utica, NY —> +3.5%
6. Knoxville, TN —> +3.4%
7. Norwich, CT —> +3.3%
8. Binghamton, NY —> +3.3%
9. Morristown, TN —> +3.3%
10. Green Bay, WI —> +3.2%
11. Appleton, WI —> +3.1%
12. Wausau, WI —> +3.1%
13. Pottsville, PA —> +3.1%
14. Hartford, CT —> +3.0%
15. Janesville, WI —> +3.0%

Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow forecast the biggest home price decline between March 2026 and March 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:

1. Houma, LA —> -7.0%
2. Lake Charles, LA —> -5.6%
3. Austin, TX —> -4.6%
4. New Orleans, LA —> -4.4%
5. Shreveport, LA —> -3.6%
6. Beaumont, TX —> -3.4%
7. Alexandria, LA —> -3.4%
8. Lafayette, LA —> -3.2%
9. Vallejo, CA —> -3.2%
10. Chico, CA —> -3.2%
11. Punta Gorda, FL —> -3.1%
12. Denver, CO —> -3.0%
13. Santa Rosa, CA —> -3.0%
14. Corpus Christi, TX —> -2.7%
15. San Antonio, TX —> -2.6%

My quick take: Based on my own analysis, I believe Zillow is too bearish on the New Orleans metro area housing market—which is showing signs of mild tightening (see map below) after passing through a correction—and also too bearish on pockets of the Bay Area—especially San Jose—which has benefited from the AI boom.

Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price change looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sun Belt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market softness over the past year.