Investors are valuing Polymarket $7 billion less than archrival Kalshi—and crypto could be one reason why

The prediction market space is one of the fastest growing in finance. Two years ago, Polymarket reportedly raised funds at a $350 million valuation. Today, the platform is in talks to raise funds at a valuation of $15 billion, The Information reported. But the windfall may be made a little less sweet by the success of Polymarket’s bitter rival, Kalshi, which was most recently valued at $22 billion.

The nearly one-third valuation discount for Polymarket could be explained by Kalshi’s stronger foothold in the U.S., where it currently holds roughly 90% market share, or by its stronger revenue figures, since Polymarket just recently started charging trading fees. But the reason for investors’ discounting of Polymarket could lie with a more idiosyncratic factor—the cryptocurrency token the company plans to launch, which makes it more difficult to gauge the stickiness of Polymarket’s current trading volume.

The recent divergence in how investors value Polymarket and Kalshi is noteworthy given that the two companies’ valuations have moved in lockstep for the past year. Polymarket and Kalshi offer nearly the same product, and if prediction markets turn into a winner-take-most sector, then the horse race between the two startups could have major stakes for investors. 

One key difference between the firms, though, is that Polymarket’s non-U.S. arm is built on blockchain rails, and the project has deep roots in the crypto space: Its 2020 seed round was backed by crypto venture capital firms Polychain, ParaFi, and 1Confirmation. This is in contrast to Kalshi, which runs on traditional financial rails and is generally less ingrained in the crypto world.

What’s a token worth?

Polymarket has teased the idea of releasing a crypto token for years. The company’s chief marketing officer said in an October 2025 podcast appearance: “There will be a token, there will be an airdrop,” referring to a practice where crypto projects will distribute free tokens to power users in a bid to drive activity and reward loyal fans. Since crypto platforms often dole out token airdrops based on user activity, it’s common for customers to employ stunts to overstate their engagement on the platform, a practice known as “airdrop farming.” In some cases, that can include so-called wash trading, where users trade with themselves.

“Polymarket’s volume is being read as pure product demand. Airdrop farming is why that read is misleading,” Eric Chen, cofounder of the blockchain Injective, told Fortune. “Polymarket has real demand, and the honest question is what share of the reported number actually represents it.” 

Polymarket has surpassed $2 billion in weekly trading volume for eight consecutive weeks, according to data from Artemis, approaching but typically lagging just behind Kalshi’s weekly volume. Polymarket did not return a request for comment.

For some industry watchers, it will be difficult to separate Polymarket’s organic usage from users jockeying for an airdrop until after it releases its token.

“None of this takes away from the platform’s innovation or long-term potential, but it does mean that volume and user growth should be viewed with context,” Digital Wealth Partners CEO Max Kahn said. “The key question over time will be whether engagement remains strong once incentives fade, as that’s a better indicator of durable usage and product-market fit.”

Still, speculative activity surrounding a crypto token does not necessarily lead to a falloff in user activity. Hyperliquid was once popular among airdrop farmers, but the crypto derivatives platform has only grown more popular in the time since its HYPE token debuted. Meanwhile, the launch of a Polymarket token could provide a financial windfall and boost the company’s valuation in the longer term.

“Looking back at HYPE, they were very [successful] and continued to be so afterwards,” Nansen research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard said. “So even if a lot of volume is happening due to airdrop farming, it is not cause for concern if the underlying ‘product’ is good enough and will keep people around.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com