Trump’s Pakistan Card and Iran’s ‘Paranoid Inertia’
As predicted by The American Spectator, IRGC hardliners are blocking a deal with the U.S. to end the Iran standoff, which otherwise has the backing of all other regional powers, including, possibly, China.
As President Trump announced last week that a “deal” had been reached with Iranian negotiators following talks in Pakistan, the Pentagon has kept deploying warships, military aviation, and more troops to the Persian Gulf, in anticipation of a final takedown that seems increasingly inevitable.
Despite an agreement by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X, saying that Iran would concede to Trump’s main demands of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and handing over its enriched uranium, the fugitive terrorist heading Iran’s ruling cabal, IRGC chief Ahmed Vahidi, appears to have had the final word: enriched uranium will not be given up and Iran’s sea “blockade” — enforced with some mines, drones, and fast attack boats — would remain in place, according to subsequent official statements issued by speaker of parliament and IRGC officer, Mohammad Ghalibaf, who was a chief negotiator in the direct talks with Vice President JD Vance. (RELATED: Ahmad Vahidi Is Now Calling the Regime’s Shots)
Despite a creeping realization that its situation is hopeless, the terrorist group heading the siege keeps a pretense of negotiating from a position of strength…
The situation could be approaching the endgame of a hostage standoff. Despite a creeping realization that its situation is hopeless, the terrorist group heading the siege keeps a pretense of negotiating from a position of strength even as infinitely better armed, prepared, increasingly well-informed, positioned, supported, organized, and reinforced counterterrorist forces close in. (RELATED: Hormuz in the Crosshairs)
What could be described as a state of “paranoid inertia” sets in, by which the gun-toting cadre, knowing that their political survival diminishes with any concessions, double down on their demands, issue new ones, and resort to violent shows of strength and “armed propaganda.” Seasoned hostage negotiators use the conflicting emotions of helplessness and rage to generate divisions amongst besieged terrorists in last-minute efforts to convince them to stand down and weaken their ability to react to an armed intervention.
A combination of fatalism, revulsion, and cold calculation is discernible in some intercepted messages between IRGC commanders following Araghchi’s posted peace statement. Some, clearly worn down from weeks of incessant U.S. and Israeli air strikes, actually called it “good news,” while others said they felt “humiliated.”
“I wish I could die right now,” said one. “They want to martyr our entire leadership along with the blood of those already martyred.” Another seemingly senior figure, said Araghchi “should face imprisonment,” insisting that the group cannot turn over its enriched uranium. “Libya gave theirs up only to be attacked later,” said the note, drawing comparisons with Muammar Gaddafi, toppled by an internal uprising following weeks of Western airstrikes that ended in his death.
The U.S. has been clearing sea corridors along western entrances to the Hormuz Strait in waters off Oman, using destroyer-escorted lightly armed Littoral Combat ships equipped with mine detecting sonar and acoustic detonation systems, undersea drones, and helicopters. About 30 ships have crossed safely carrying oil and other cargoes from Iraqi, UAE, Qatari, and Saudi ports since last week’s ceasefire, and more U.S. minesweepers are on their way from bases in Japan.
But on Saturday, the IRGC attacked Indian, French, and British tankers with drones and machine gun fire from small speedboats. The U.S. scrambled Apache helicopters to hunt down the Taregh boats, apparently launched by an IRGC navy commander who had called Araghchi an “idiot,” declaring that he would not follow his orders.
It was a belated IRGC response to the U.S. Navy’s highly effective blockade implemented over the past week, which has stopped virtually all oil traffic from Iranian ports, costing the regime some $400 million per day in revenues and most severely affecting energy supplies to China, Iran’s main customer.
In a Pentagon-released audio tape, the watch officer of an American destroyer warns an Iranian tanker: “This is U.S. Navy warship 115 requesting you to return to port.” The captain of the intercepted vessel instantly acknowledges the order and turns back. At the time of writing, U.S. Marines were reported to have boarded a sanctioned Iranian ship after a destroyer stopped it by “blowing a hole in the engine room,” according to a Trump post on Truth Social.
Iran has so far fired no missiles in response to the draconian U.S. blockade. None of the dozen or so midget submarines armed with torpedoes, which, according to intelligence reports, remain concealed in underwater caves in Qeshm, Larak, or other islands on Iranian waters along the straits, has challenged U.S. warships.
Besides American naval power, another player is entering the standoff drama: Pakistan, the nuclear-armed Islamic power, which is hosting the peace talks and actively promoting a diplomatic settlement involving Iranian concessions. Pakistan’s armed forces chief and virtual ruler, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is a good friend of Trump and indebted to the U.S. president for helping stop a war with India last year. (RELATED: India and Pakistan: No Solution, Just Damage Control)
He has moved military assets into the Gulf region, deploying some 13,000 troops and a squadron of F-16s to Saudi Arabia since last week’s ceasefire. Pakistan has a mutual defense agreement with the Saudi kingdom, which is believed to have partially financed its nuclear program. Over recent days, Pakistani fighter jets have also been flown to Kuwait, the country hardest hit by Iranian missile strikes and hosting the largest number of U.S. bases.
Pakistan, which also has military ties with China, could be signaling a willingness to shield Arab Gulf states from the IRGC’s thousand or so remaining missiles, which the group is threatening to unleash against desalination plants and other vital infrastructure if Trump resumes air strikes to knock out all of Iran’s bridges and electric grid. Pakistan could potentially open a new front that the IRGC is in no position to handle. Pakistani warplanes have recently launched air strikes against the IRGC’s Taliban allies in Afghanistan.
The geopolitical picture is becoming increasingly complex in ways highly detrimental to the IRGC, but which may also complicate matters for Trump. It’s unknown what tradeoffs there may have been between the U.S. president and Pakistan’s strongman. Pressures on Israel’s Netanyahu to halt his offensive against Hezbollah and agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon, which was an Iranian condition to proceed with talks last week, could be one of them. (RELATED: No, You Morons, Iran Has Not ‘Won.’)
Munir may also want a say on the U.S. target menu if bombings on Iran resume. He might be interested in protecting certain regime politicians whom he is clearly trying to form into a faction that can eventually force a settlement on IRGC hardliners and survive to give him leverage in a postwar Iran. He may even have intelligence agents on the ground protecting Araghchi and others from Vahidi.
But mediators, however powerful, often fail in hostage negotiations whose success or failure ultimately depends on the extent of derangement in the violent minds of paranoid terrorists who, in Iran’s case, are particularly fanatical and indoctrinated in suicidal religious delusions.
Trump may have sent JD Vance, Witkoff, and Co. back to Islamabad on Monday, even as Iran said that they would not be showing up, as a gesture to Munir to keep him sweet. But following the hostage standoff script, plans are simultaneously underway for the SWAT team to take charge.
The IRGC is bracing for what they believe are imminent U.S. ground incursions. Some videos show buses and other obstacles placed on airport runways to prevent Tactical Airborne Landings Operations by U.S. paratroopers and special forces.
According to a former U.S. Air Force special operations officer, the intricate TALO near Isfahan to mount the rescue of a downed F-15 pilot last Easter weekend, which involved setting up a temporary helicopter base deep in Iranian territory, could serve as a dress rehearsal for operations that may include securing the enriched uranium sites.
READ MORE from Martin Arostegui:
Ahmad Vahidi Is Now Calling the Regime’s Shots
Putin, Iran, and Europe in a Post-NATO World
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