Luxon Vows to Stay On as National Hits Lowest Point Under His Leadership

Parliament returned today with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon addressing his caucus in the face of the worst poll of his leadership, as the government confronted growing questions about whether it can close a seven-point gap to Labour before the November election.

The 1News Verian poll, conducted between April 11 and 15, put National at 30 percent, down four points from February, while Labour climbed five points to 37 percent. Under those numbers, a Labour-led bloc including the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would command 66 parliamentary seats against 58 for the National-ACT-New Zealand First coalition, giving Labour’s Chris Hipkins a pathway to the Beehive without National winning a single extra vote.

It is the lowest result for National since Luxon became leader in late 2021. More painfully, Luxon’s preferred prime minister rating dropped four points to 16 percent, placing him behind Hipkins for the first time. Hipkins registered 19 percent. Winston Peters came in at 12 percent. No potential National successor registered above three percent among voters surveyed.

Luxon met with his caucus ahead of the first parliamentary sitting of the post-Easter term, and was direct when asked whether he would step aside. “That’s not going to happen,” he told RNZ. He acknowledged the party “needs to do better” and said he had the full backing of his caucus. He described internal discontent as a “small handful” of critics, estimating “probably five people” who are “moaning and frustrated,” and suggested they were MPs disappointed at missing out on ministerial positions.

The prime minister had already put himself in an awkward position earlier in the week by claiming, three times in a single press conference, that “if we had an election today, this government would be reinstated.” The Verian poll was released hours later and directly contradicted that claim. Luxon subsequently shifted ground, telling reporters: “We’re not where we want to be. We need to do better.”

Hipkins sharpened his attack after the poll result. “Christopher Luxon is fighting to keep his own job when he should be fighting for the jobs of New Zealanders,” he said. After more than two years in opposition, Labour under Hipkins is ahead in preferred prime minister rankings for the first time since the 2023 election defeat. The party’s numbers have strengthened in part on the fuel crisis response, an issue where the government has struggled to land a consistent message with voters.

ACT leader and Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour dismissed the leadership speculation as “mindless media speculation” and described the coalition as united. National’s campaign chair Simeon Brown, who took the role following April’s cabinet reshuffle, called on his colleagues to “come together and work as a team.” Chris Bishop, frequently named in leadership discussions, appeared on Q+A last Sunday to publicly back Luxon and dismiss any suggestion of a challenge.

Peters was characteristically defiant. “We’re going to turn your polls into confetti,” he told reporters. New Zealand First’s numbers have been more resilient, with a separate Taxpayers Union-Curia survey conducted on April 1 and 2 placing the party at 13.6 percent, its highest result since 2021, as conservative voters who might once have backed National park their support with Peters.

The internal pressure was compounded last week when New Zealand First deputy leader Shane Jones described the government’s India free trade agreement as a risk of “unfettered immigration” and warned of what he called a “butter chicken tsunami.” Luxon called the remarks “alarmist” and said the language was “unhelpful,” but stopped short of saying whether he considered them racist. The deal, which Trade Minister Todd McClay has confirmed will be formally signed on April 27, has been one of the government’s most promoted economic achievements, and Jones’s characterisation created a public rift within the coalition at the worst possible moment for National.

The structural problem for Luxon is that the voters National needs back are scattered across the political spectrum. Some have moved to Labour on cost of living and fuel crisis grounds. Others have drifted to New Zealand First, which is presenting itself as the true conservative anchor of the government. That fragmentation makes it harder to find a single campaign pitch that wins both groups back simultaneously. The government’s response to the fuel crisis so far, including a boost to the in-work tax credit and lifted mileage rates for home support workers, has been broadly welcomed but widely criticised as falling short of what ordinary households need.

National has until October, when parliament is due to dissolve ahead of the November 7 election, to reverse a polling deficit that would currently see it lose around twelve seats compared to 2023. Luxon’s public message is that the government has important work to do and the time remaining to do it. Whether his caucus gives him that time without further turbulence will become clearer as the week unfolds.

What do you make of National’s position going into the second half of this parliamentary term — is there enough time to turn things around, or is the November election already decided? Share your thoughts in the comments below.