How many points do Liverpool need for guaranteed Champions League place after Man United favour?

Liverpool were given a helping hand in their efforts to secure Champions League qualification as Manchester United defeated nearest pursuers Chelsea on Saturday night.

The Reds currently occupy the fifth and final berth reserved for English teams in the 2026/27 edition of Europe’s primary club competition, going into today’s Merseyside derby on 52 points, four clear of Liam Rosenior’s side.

A win away to Everton this afternoon would put Arne Slot’s team in a commanding position to clinch a top-five finish, but the opposite result would risk seeing them getting pulled back into an increasingly populous chasing pack behind them in the Premier League table.

How many points would guarantee top-five finish for Liverpool?

With Liverpool four points ahead of Chelsea, who have five more matches remaining, it’d appear on first glance that 12 points for the Reds in their final six games would guarantee Champions League football at Anfield for next season.

However, it isn’t quite that simple. With Everton and Sunderland playing today, both have the opportunity to close the gap on the Reds, who at present need a minimum of 66 points to be certain of a top-five finish (i.e. 14 more from their remaining fixtures).

Of course, a draw in the Merseyside derby (which’d correspond with Paul Merson’s prediction) would preserve the five-point gap to the Toffees, who’d go level on points with Chelsea, and anything but a win for the Wearsiders would mean they can get no more than 62 points.

Liverpool have a (theoretically) simple formula to aim towards

As David Lynch has maintained, there is one theoretically simple formula for Liverpool to aspire towards in their pursuit of a top-five finish – win their home games and draw on the road.

That’d see the Reds add 12 more points to their tally and finish on 64, but with one of those away matches being the Merseyside derby, a draw would ensure that Everton can’t accrue any more than 63.

Even a point at home to Chelsea on 9 May could be enough to confirm we finish ahead of the west Londoners by the time that fixture comes around, should their poor form continue.

Liverpool very much have Champions League qualification in their own hands, and while that’d remain the case with a draw today, a win in the derby would put them at least six points clear of the chasing pack (seven if Sunderland don’t beat Aston Villa simultaneously).

As horrendous as this season has been, the inconsistencies of other teams are leaving the door wide open for the Reds to ensure that a top-five finish is theirs with a bit to spare. That is, of course, if they can address the inadequacies which have them sweating for Champions League football rather than mounting another title challenge.

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