Habs Mailbag: Goaltending, defence and jam keys to playoff success for Canadiens
In your opinion, what is it going to take for the Canadiens to knock off Tampa Bay in the first round? Who needs to step up for Montreal?
Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
For starters, it’s going to take great goaltending since the Canadiens are going up against Andrei Vasilevskiy, one of the best in the NHL.
Vasilevskiy has a 16-5-2 career regular-season record against the Canadiens and a career .918 save percentage in the playoffs to go along with two Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. This season, Vasilevskiy had a 39-15-4 record with a 2.31 GAA and a .912 save percentage, and the 31-year-old Russian has a good shot at winning his second Vézina Trophy as the NHL’s top goalie.
That’s a big challenge for Canadiens rookie goalie Jakub Dobes, who has 62 games of NHL experience, including three playoff games last season against the Washington Capitals when he had a 1-2 record with a 2.91 GAA and an .881 save percentage. This season, the 24-year-old had a 29-10-4 record with a 2.78 GAA and a .901 save percentage.
The Canadiens will also have to shut down Nikita Kucherov, who finished second in NHL scoring this season with 44-86-130 totals, eight points behind the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid (48-90-138). Kucherov has 20-29-49 totals in 42 career regular-season games against the Canadiens to go along with his two Stanley Cup rings, three Art Ross Trophies as the NHL’s leading scorer, and a Hart Trophy as the league’s MVP.
The Lightning has the best goalie in this series and the best player, which is a big reason why I have picked them to win in six games. The loss of defenceman Noah Dobson with a thumb injury is also a huge blow to the Canadiens when it comes to shutting down Kucherov.
The Lightning also has an edge in experience with an average age of 30 compared with the Canadiens’ average of 26. The Lightning has an average size of 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, while the Canadiens average 6-foot-1 and 201 pounds.
The goaltending and defence — without Dobson — are going to have to step up big-time for the Canadiens to have any chance of beating the Lightning. The No. 1 line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky will also have to score on Vasilevskiy.
That’s not easy.
What is the big strategy for Tampa? Is it to replicate the rougher play we saw last time they met, or does Marty St. Louis have other adjustments up his sleeve? Gotta keep our big boys healthy to protect our fast little heroes.
canucky67 on X — @canucky675
The Canadiens beat the Lightning the last two times they met during the regular season — 4-1 in Tampa on March 31 and 2-1 at the Bell Centre on April 9. Dobson logged more than 21 minutes of ice time in both of those games.
The Canadiens showed in the last victory over Tampa that the Lightning won’t intimidate them physically in a game that included 126 penalty minutes. But the Canadiens have to stay out of the penalty box against the Lightning and not let Corey Perry get under their skin, which won’t be easy.
St. Louis says he’s more focused on what his team can do than what the Lightning might do.
“I think we can play any kind of game you want to play,” St. Louis said. “I think we’re equipped for anything. You just got to be ready for what’s next in front of you. You have to bring some jam, I feel, to every game. But there’s a lot of free hits out there — you got to be ready to give them. Sometimes you got to respond (to) the dirty stuff. You got to stick together. You want to play a wide-open game, we can do that, too. But I feel you got to be calculated and you got to play the game that’s in front of you and be ready for anything. We can do that.”
Does Brendan Gallagher start Game 1 against the Lightning? What would your defensive pairings look like?
Ty Good on X — @TylerMGoo
Judging by the lines at practice Friday, Gallagher won’t be in the lineup for Game 1 Sunday in Tampa (5:45 p.m., CBC, SN, TVA Sports) and neither will Joe Veleno.
It looks like the fourth line will have Phillip Danault at centre between Jake Evans and Josh Anderson. The other lines Friday were Suzuki between Caufield and Slafkovsky, Alex Newhook between Alexandre Texier and Ivan Demidov, and Oliver Kapanen between Zachary Bolduc and Kirby Dach.
The defence pairings had Kaiden Guhle with Mike Matheson, Lane Hutson with Alexandre Carrier and Jayden Struble with Arber Xhekaj. Adam Engstrom and David Reinbacher were the extra defencemen.
I agree with those defence pairings since the Canadiens are going to need the physicality of Xhekaj and Struble against the Lightning, and having Engstrom and/or Reinbacher make the jump from the AHL’s Laval Rocket to Game 1 of a playoff series against Tampa would be a big one.
Do you think the Habs’ season is a success and the rebuild is moving along if they have a first-round playoff exit? Or do they have to at least win a playoff round this year?
Paul Wong
I wrote a column this week saying this season is definitely a success even if the Canadiens lose to the Lightning in the first round.
The Canadiens finished in third place in the Atlantic Division with a 48-24-10 record for 106 points, which was a 15-point improvement over last season, when they finished 40-31-11 and earned the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference on the last day of the season.
The Canadiens scored 283 goals this season, which was 38 more than last season, and finished with a plus-27 goal differential after being minus-20 last season. They were also much more consistent overall this season. Their longest losing streak was five games and that was back in November. After that, they never lost more than two games in a row.
Last season, the Canadiens had one six-game losing streak, two five-game losing streaks and a four-game losing streak.
How close is this Canadiens team to being a serious Stanley Cup contender?
Colin on Bluesky — @demidovforcalder.bsky.social
I think the Canadiens could be a serious contender as early as next season and definitely the year after that.
If they can get past the Lightning, get great goaltending from Dobes and/or Jacob Fowler and get Dobson back in the lineup sooner rather than later, they could even contend this season.
The Canadiens are the youngest team in the playoffs for the second straight season, and the future looks bright with top prospects like Michael Hage, Alexander Zharovsky and Bryce Pickford on the horizon.
GM Kent Hughes is also in a position — with so many prospects and still holding first- and second-round draft picks for the next three years — to make a big deal this off-season, like he did last summer when he acquired Dobson from the New York Islanders.
Since the Canadiens started their rebuild, there are many other organizations that have praised the way it has been done. The concept of the rebuild itself isn’t new, but it seems that the Canadiens’ brass has definitely got some positive attention from their peers. What makes our rebuild and the way we’ve gone about it something to be envied by the league’s other 31 teams?
Pratik Desai
The Canadiens went from finishing last in the overall NHL standings in 2021-22 with a 22-49-11 record for 55 points to finishing sixth overall this season with a 48-24-10 record for 106 points — almost doubling their points in four years.
That’s remarkable and has definitely caught the attention of other NHL teams. The Canadiens also went from a minus-98 goal differential in 2021-22 to plus-27 this season.
The key to the success of the rebuild starts from the top with owner/president Geoff Molson, who was willing to bite the bullet and fully embrace the rebuilding process. He also hired the right person to lead the rebuild in Jeff Gorton and then stepped out of the way and let him do his job, hiring Hughes as GM and St. Louis as head coach. Hughes and St. Louis had no experience in those positions, but Gorton was willing to think outside the box and not just bring in a recycled GM and head coach.
After the 2020-21 season, New York Rangers owner James Dolan grew impatient with Gorton as GM only three years after sending a letter to fans saying they were starting a rebuild. Dolan fired Gorton, along with team president John Davidson, and named Chris Drury president and GM.
In January, Drury sent another letter to Rangers fans saying they were now starting a strategic “retool” instead of a full rebuild.
Patience is a virtue — especially when trying to rebuild an NHL team.
Another reason why the Canadiens’ rebuild has been a success is that Gorton, Hughes and St. Louis work so well together and, from Day 1, have been honest with fans, players and media about what the rebuilding plan is — to construct a team that won’t just make the playoffs, but also be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender for several years.
Everyone has bought into the plan — most importantly, Molson.
Do you think Ivan Demidov will settle for a less rich contract, like some other players did in Montreal, or will he want the big bucks?
Sylvana 333 on X — @333Sylvana61057
Demidov loves Montreal and I believe he wants to stay here.
“I love Montreal,” the 20-year-old Russian winger said recently. “Everything is hockey. I love being here.”
With that in mind, I can see Demidov agreeing to an offer similar to the eight-year, US$70.8-million contract Lane Hutson signed last October. While Hutson’s contract has an annual salary-cap hit of US$8.85 million, there is a lot of up-front signing-bonus money to sweeten the deal.
Hutson’s contract, which kicks in next season, includes signing bonuses of US$11 million in each of the first two years, US$9.5 million in Year 3, US$6.5 million in Year 4, US$6 million in Years 5 and 6 and US$5 million in Year 7.
I imagine Demidov’s next contract will have a similar structure. He has one more season left on his NHL entry-level contract with a US$940,833 cap hit and US$3 million in potential performance-bonus money.
Another big reason why this rebuild has been successful is that young players now want to stay in Montreal.
Demidov led all NHL rookies in scoring this season with 19-43-62 totals, finishing ahead of Anaheim Ducks forward Beckett Sennecke (23-37-60) and New York Islanders defenceman Matthew Schaefer (23-36-59), who is the favourite to win the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie.
If Nick Suzuki’s contract ended this year, what do you think his new contract would look like?
Rob on X — @CDN_24
That’s a great question.
Suzuki would be in a very strong bargaining position after becoming the first Canadiens player since Mats Naslund in 1985-86 to hit the 100-point mark, with 29-72-101 totals to finish sixth in the NHL in scoring. Suzuki is the first Canadien to finish in the top 10 in NHL scoring since Naslund finished eighth in 1985-86 with 43-67-110 totals. Suzuki was one of only eight players in the NHL to hit the 100-point mark this season.
The Canadiens captain is in the fourth season of an eight-year, US$63-million contract with an annual salary-cap hit of US$7.875 million.
The only player ahead of Suzuki in NHL scoring this season who is earning less is the San Jose Sharks’ Macklin Celebrini and that’s because the 19-year-old is in the second season of his three-year NHL entry-level contract with a US$975,000 cap hit and US$3.5 million in possible performance-bonus money. Celebrini finished fourth in NHL scoring with 45-70-115 totals.
Editor’s Picks
The Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid, who won his sixth Art Ross Trophy after finishing first in NHL scoring with 48-90-138 totals, has a US$12.5 million cap hit this season.
Kucherov, who finished second with 44-86-130 totals, has a US$9.5 million cap hit. The Colorado Avalanche’s Nathan MacKinnon, who finished third with 53-74-127 totals, has a US$12.6 million cap hit. The Winnipeg Jets’ Mark Scheifele, who finished fifth with 36-67-103 totals, has a US$8.5 million cap hit.
If the 26-year-old Suzuki were eligible for a new contract now, he’d probably be looking for at least US$10 million per season on an eight-year contract. As of Sept. 16 this year, the longest contract allowed in the NHL’s new collective agreement will be reduced to seven years.
I see David Reinbacher replacing Alexandre Carrier next season since he impressed me with his size and skating abilities and seemed not to panic when pressured after getting called up from the AHL’s Laval Rocket. Do you think we will see him in this series against Tampa Bay?
Sheri Taylor
Carrier, 29, still has one more season left on his contract with a very reasonable US$3.75 million salary-cap hit. Carrier is one of only three right-shot defencemen the Canadiens have now, along with Dobson and Reinbacher.
I think Reinbacher is more likely to replace Arber Xhekaj or Jayden Struble — who both shoot left — next season than Carrier.
Obviously, the Habs need to get bigger. With all the players and draft picks they have, do you think they could go after Washington’s Tom Wilson? He could be the answer to a lot of problems.
Booonie on X — @BoonieNash
Wilson could definitely help the Canadiens — or any other NHL team — but I don’t see the Capitals having any interest in giving up the 32-year-old at this point.
The 6-foot-4, 225-pound winger continues to produce offence, with 30-32-62 totals this season, while intimidating the opposition with his physicality, picking up 117 penalty minutes. There aren’t many players like Wilson in the NHL, which is why the Capitals signed him to a seven-year, US$45-million contract with a US$6.5 million salary-cap hit that still has five more seasons left on it.
Will Steve Shutt and Jacques Lemaire ever get their jersey numbers retired?
oms1.bsky.social on Bluesky — @oms1.bsky.social
They definitely deserve to have their numbers retired — No. 22 for Shutt and No. 25 for Lemaire.
Cole Caufield switching from No. 22 to No. 13 last season in honour of childhood idol Johnny Gaudreau following his tragic death opened the door for the Canadiens to retire Shutt’s number.
Shutt shares the Canadiens’ record for most goals in a season (60) with Guy Lafleur, ranks fifth on the team’s list of all-time goal-scorers with 408 and also won five Stanley Cups. The four Canadiens ahead of Shutt in career goals all have their numbers retired — No. 9 Maurice Richard (544 goals), No. 10 Lafleur (518 goals), No. 4 Jean Béliveau (507 goals) and No. 12 Yvan Cournoyer (428 goals). Bernie Geoffrion, who ranks sixth behind Shutt with 371 goals, had his No. 5 retired.
Lemaire ranks seventh in career goals with the Canadiens (366) and won eight Stanley Cups.
Toe Blake (No. 6) would be at the top of my list if the Canadiens ever decide to retire more numbers. He won two Stanley Cups during his Hall of Fame playing career as part of the famous Punch Line with Richard and Elmer Lach (No. 12), who have both had their numbers retired. Blake then won eight more Stanley Cups as head coach of the Canadiens.
However, the Canadiens don’t seem to be in any rush to retire more numbers. The last player to have his number retired was Guy Lapointe (No. 5) in 2014.
The Canadiens have retired 15 numbers: 1 (Jacques Plante), 2 (Doug Harvey), 3 (Butch Bouchard), 4 (Béliveau), 5 (Geoffrion and Lapointe), 7 (Howie Morenz), 9 (Richard), 10 (Lafleur), 12 (Dickie Moore and Cournoyer), 16 (Elmer Lach and Henri Richard), 18 (Serge Savard), 19 (Larry Robinson), 23 (Bob Gainey), 29 (Ken Dryden), 33 (Patrick Roy).
If you have a question you’d like to ask for the weekly Habs Mailbag, you can email it to montrealcanadiens@postmedia.com
The post Habs Mailbag: Goaltending, defence and jam keys to playoff success for Canadiens appeared first on Montreal Gazette.