Trumpian Geoeconomics and Indo-Pacific Geopolitics
Perhaps the most important consequence of the Iran War — other than degrading the military capabilities of the Iranian regime and depriving that regime of nuclear weapons — is the deterrent effect it will likely have on China’s geopolitical ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. For not only has Trump demonstrated to China’s leaders America’s immense military capabilities by destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure and conventional military assets (including their warships), but also America’s capacity to wage economic warfare by controlling strategic waterways and chokepoints through which China obtains much of its energy supplies. Trumpian geoeconomics may give the United States the edge in Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
An important predicate to all of this is Trump’s moves to make the United States energy independent by unleashing the full might of America’s domestic energy productivity and consolidating U.S. geopolitical command of the western hemisphere. That is one reason why the Venezuelan operation was so important. Trump has demonstrated to China’s leaders that not only can the United States do without energy supplies from the Middle East, but it can also deny those resources to China. The Center for Global Energy Policy notes that half of China’s oil imports and a third of its liquified natural gas imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz.
But the Strait of Hormuz is only one vulnerability that China faces. Even more important is what former Chinese President Hu Jintao called the “Malacca Dilemma.” The Strait of Malacca is perhaps the most important geoeconomic chokepoint in the world. “All of China’s energy sea lines of communication (SLOCs) converge through” the Strait of Malacca. Two-thirds of its trade passes through this strait. That is one reason why Trump insists on maintaining access to Diego Garcia in the center of the Indian Ocean, and why the U.S. should reconcentrate naval and air resources in the Philippines. The U.S. Navy is demonstrating in the current war against Iran that it can also close this strait in a conflict with China.
Trump’s blockade or quarantine of the Strait of Hormuz is, therefore, both a potential stranglehold on Iran’s economy should it violate the ceasefire, and a message to China’s leaders that we can shut off much of their energy supplies and global trade if they attempt to forcibly seize or blockade Taiwan. In this way, Trump’s success in the Iran War may help stabilize geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific.
Chinese leaders for all of their bluster likely realize that their armed forces are untested in battle. China’s last war was with Vietnam in the late 1970s, and they didn’t fare so well in that conflict. Since then, China has massively increased its military power and would undoubtedly be a tough opponent if a war were to break out in the western Pacific. That is why the best policy for the United States is to take measures to deter China from launching such a war. President Trump has already improved our deterrent posture by consolidating our position in the western hemisphere, building up our military power, and actually — as opposed to rhetorically — pivoting to Asia. As noted above, the war in Iran in both its military and geoeconomic aspects has strengthened our deterrent posture in the Indo-Pacific.
More needs to be done. Our shipbuilding capacity must be exponentially increased. We must not cede our current nuclear superiority vis-à-vis China. We should further shift our military and political resources from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. The war against Iran has revealed that NATO allies who refuse to help us in the Middle East are unlikely to help us in the Indo-Pacific. The money we spend and the resources we devote to what is essentially a protectorate instead of an alliance, would be better spent in, and devoted to, the Indo-Pacific region.
Far from being a debacle or a quagmire, the war against Iran may reshape global politics in America’s favor in the Middle East and beyond.
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