Bears Fans Shouldn’t Ignore Mel Kiper’s Final Prediction — Here’s Why It Carries Weight
The Chicago Bears have been hard to get a read on for some time during this pre-draft process. Part of that comes from them not picking until late in the 1st round. Another part is that they’ve done a pretty good job of masking any intentions they may have. Insiders have tried gauging what they might be thinking, but it’s mostly speculation. Well, Mel Kiper of ESPN released his final mock draft of the season this week. The longtime draft expert has been on a bit of a hot streak regarding the Bears in recent years.
In each of the past four drafts in which the Bears held a 1st-round pick, he correctly predicted the position the team ended up targeting. Sometimes he even nailed the exact player.
- 2025 – TE Tyler Warren (correct position)
- 2024 – QB Caleb Williams (correct position and player)
- 2024 – WR Rome Odunze (correct position and player)
- 2023 – OT Paris Johnson (correct position)
- 2021 – WR Elijah Moore (Bears traded up that year)
- 2018 – OG Quentin Nelson (had Roquan Smith going to Colts at #6)
- 2017 – DL Solomon Thomas (whiff but correct draft slot)
- 2016 – DE Shaq Lawson (correct position)
It seems as if he’s had a finger on the pulse of the Ryan Poles regime in Chicago, usually having a strong sense of which direction they’ll go. His final mock made it seem as if he’s plenty confident that the Bears are locked in on what they want to do.
25. Chicago Bears
Zion Young, DE, Missouri
The Bears’ attempts to give Montez Sweat a running mate off the edge have fallen short, but Young could finally be the answer. He piled up 6.5 sacks, 46 pressures and 18 tackles for loss last season, showing a mix of power and quickness. The Bears are suddenly legit contenders in the NFC, but their 35 sacks last season tied for seventh fewest in the league. I mentioned this in my last mock draft — in which I also had Young to Chicago — but it’s worth repeating: The Bears haven’t used a top-50 pick on an edge rusher since Leonard Floyd went ninth in 2016. It’s time to get a little more aggressive at the position during the draft.
Mel Kiper seems certain the Bears will go for an edge rusher.
Every part of his decision is based on facts. The Bears had one of the worst pass rush win rates in the NFL last season (29%). Montez Sweat remains a good player, but no one else stepped up. Austin Booker missed half of the season with a knee injury and remains an unknown quantity. Their interior pass rush wasn’t any better. Gervon Dexter did have six sacks, but his pressure rate was still relatively low. The fact is, the Bears do not have a pass rusher who can generate the kind of consistent heat they need.
Part of the reason for this is that they haven’t really invested in the defensive line for years. Not from a draft perspective. They haven’t used a 1st round pick on an edge rusher since 2016 and haven’t used one on a defensive tackle since 2004. That is the second-longest drought in the NFL right now at 22 years. Only the Indianapolis Colts have gone longer. People wonder why the Bears’ pass rush has been so inconsistent for years. You can pretty much trace it back to that.
The options at #25 will be fascinating.
Zion Young isn’t the only one who should still be on the board when the Bears pick. Auburn’s Keldric Faulk and Clemson’s T.J. Parker could also be in play. Both have the ideal mix of size and power that defensive coordinator Dennis Allen prefers in his system. You could also potentially include Gabe Jacas of Illinois. That doesn’t include the question about the defensive tackle. Peter Woods is a natural fit for Allen’s system as well, but had production questions at Clemson that leave some questioning his motor. Kayden McDonald was a monster for Ohio State, but he has limited pass-rush upside due to his sheer size.
Mel Kiper is likely correct. If the Bears go defensive line in the 1st round, as many have predicted, it will be an edge rusher. Young is a great scheme fit, but he isn’t the only one. Much will depend on what the Bears discerned about these players during the lengthy scouting process. Head coach Ben Johnson has said he wants good football players. Talent is important, but so is passion for the game. That will be the most telling part of what they do. It worked out for them last year.