Hickey: Four reasons why Canadiens will pull off playoff upset against Lightning
It’s fearless prediction time, and we’re here to say the Canadiens’ dream season will continue with a first-round playoff victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Here are four reasons why the Canadiens will prevail:
The Canadiens owned the Lightning in the regular season. That’s a bit of an exaggeration, but the Canadiens did have a 2-1-1 record in the season series. More importantly, the Canadiens have some momentum with 4-1 and 2-1 victories over Tampa Bay during the past month, when both teams were fighting to earn post-season berths. The Lightning did have a one-sided 6-1 victory at the Bell Centre in the first meeting between these teams on Dec. 9, but the Canadiens played them to a standstill before losing 5-4 in a Dec. 28 shootout in Tampa.
The Canadiens have the away-ice advantage. Teams play 82 regular-season games to make the playoffs and, hopefully, secure the home-ice advantage in the best-of-seven playoffs. But the Canadiens earned 56 of their 106 points on the road and tied with Dallas for the second-best road record in the NHL behind Colorado. Montreal split two games in Tampa and has won 24 road games. More than half of them (13) were against teams in the playoffs.
The Canadiens will not be intimidated. The conventional wisdom is the Canadiens aren’t big enough or tough enough to survive in the playoffs. But the Canadiens stepped up when the Lightning tried to turn their final two meetings into goon shows. The Canadiens outhit the Lightning in each game and held their own in the numerous scrums that produced 126 penalty minutes in the April 9 game. The Canadiens finished the season ranked seventh in hits and first in blocked shots.
There are lessons from history. Nikita Kucherov has 30 goals and 62 points in 55 regular season and playoff games against Montreal, but Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis knows there’s a way to frustrate him. In 2019, St. Louis was a consultant to head coach John Tortorella in Columbus when the Blue Jackets swept the heavily favoured Lightning in the first round of the playoffs. Tortorella assigned Pierre-Luc Dubois to shadow Kucherov. After he failed to register a point in the first two games, a frustrated Kucherov took a major penalty for boarding late in Game 2 and was suspended for Game 3. Canadiens winger Alexandre Texier might get a similar shadow role in this year’s playoffs.
Opening for Reinbacher: The Canadiens will be without star defenceman Noah Dobson for at least the start of the playoffs, and that will provide an opening for David Reinbacher to prove the Canadiens didn’t make a mistake when they drafted him fifth overall in 2023.
Reinbacher has played only two NHL games, but he’s not the first Montreal defenceman to be placed in this position. P.K. Subban played in only two NHL games before he was called up to replace the injured Jaroslav Spacek in the opening round of the 2010 playoffs. Subban took on a greater role when Andrei Markov suffered a series-ending knee injury in Game 1 of the second-round series against Pittsburgh. By the time Philadelphia eliminated Montreal in the Eastern Conference final, Subban had established himself as the team’s top defenceman.
Miller’s odyssey continues: Goaltender Quentin Miller is looking for someplace to play — again.
Miller had a good year in 2022-23 as the backup goaltender for the Memorial Cup-champion Quebec Remparts. While the Montreal native didn’t see action in the playoffs, he posted a 14-4 record in the regular season with a 2.11 goals-against average, and the Canadiens drafted him in the fourth round, No. 128 overall.
He struggled the following season, but rebounded after a midseason trade to Rimouski. He was scheduled to be the starter for the Océanic during the 2024-25 season, but he suffered a shoulder injury in training camp. By the time he returned after surgery, William Lacelle had grabbed the starting job and there was no room for Miller.
The only job he could find was with Chilliwack in the British Columbia Hockey League, which is a prime feeder for U.S. colleges, and that’s where his luck changed. While he appeared at a dead end, the NCAA lifted its longtime ban on major junior hockey players and Miller was recruited by the University of Denver.
He started the season as the Pioneers’ No. 1 goaltender and he had a 12-10-2 record with a 2.39 GAA, but he suffered a leg injury in late January. By the time Miller was ready to return, fellow freshman Johnny Hicks had replaced him. Hicks made 29 saves as Denver edged Wisconsin 2-1 to win the NCAA title. The Kamloops, B.C., native finished the season as the No. 1 goaltender in college hockey with a 15-0-1 record, a 1.20 GAA and a .957 save percentage.
On Tuesday, Miller entered the transfer portal and, once again, he’s looking for a place to play.
Meanwhile, goaltender Alexis Cournoyer, the Canadiens’ fifth-round draft choice, No. 145 overall, in 2025, is leaving Cornell after his freshman season. He had an 18-10 record with a 2.05 GAA.
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