DATA DUMP FRIDAY

Before we get into the normal guts of the blog, I just wanted to highlight this shocking news.

Preserved original voice while refining spelling and grammar

Alex Manninger was a hero of mine as a teenager. He was the rosy-cheeked back-up keeper to David Seaman in the 97-98 season. He kept 6 clean sheets in a row in our title-winning season, and he had an incredibly memorable FA Cup game against West Ham that is seared in my memory. That save where he clawed it out the top corner was WILD. Also easy to forget he was the keeper for the Old Trafford game that Marc Overmars won the title… and Manninger kept a clean sheet.

Alex was a true pro. He could have got the nod for the FA Cup final against Newcastle when Seaman returned, but it wasn’t to be. He left Arsenal, but went on to have a wild career at great clubs, including Fiorentina, Salzburg, Juventus, Liverpool, Torino and Bologna.

RIP. I loved that guy. Best back-up keeper in my lifetime. Taken too young.

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I am quite pleased that there has been a bit of a shift in the conversation from some of the dreadful commentary going on post-Sporting. The radical centre of the Arsenal fan base stepped up and started making its voice heard.

Yes, we finally landed on the consensus that being in the Champions League semi-final for the second time in the last two seasons is, actually, something to be very proud of.

I thought the below context of what the boys have achieved was absolutely excellent and sharp.

TRIGGER WARNING: I AM GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE NUMBER 14, EXIT NOW IF YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH

How many more times can I repeat this… Thierry Henry was only in two Champions League semi-finals for Arsenal. He never won the trophy. He only got to the final at the back end of his career after the Invincibles won the league in the worst Arsenal side he played in.

Arteta, somehow, has managed to be a fraud, a cone boy, and a coward… yet is the only manager unbeaten in the Champions League, is the manager overseeing a team with the best defensive record, and according to my Gradient data source…

There’s only one team in the final four that has spent less time out of possession than Arsenal… that’s Paris and it’s 10 minutes.

We’ve made the fewest positional mistakes of the final four.

We’ve scored the third most goals. 8th for shots taken, 4th for shots on target, 5th for unsaveable shots.

We have the highest number of touches in the box per possession (equal to Madrid).

We are really good.

If you want to be more like Madrid and Bayern stylistically, good for you, but that mode of football would get destroyed in the Premier League every week by lesser teams, hence the reason no one plays that way in England this season.

But what say ye about the English Premier League? Two graphs caught my eye.

Firstly, your annual reminder that teams play deeper against Arsenal. This is Declan, our new captain, speaking up.

‘Every week teams change from a four to a five to defend against us so the spaces ain’t there. That’s the truth.’

Don’t believe me, look at the graph above to give you the details on how prevalent the issue is. They’re not doing that because we’re rubbish in attack, they’re doing that because they know if they played an open game against Arsenal, they’d get destroyed.

The second graph comes from Scott over at the very excellent Cannon Stats.

This graph shows the decline in open-play xG over a season's worth of data.

Isn’t that striking? The only team that has seen an improvement is this side that bought the best forwards last summer. United. Sesko, Cunha, and Mbuemo. Everyone else has regressed, even Liverpool, who spent £400m.

Arsenal would be better positioned if we’d signed someone better than Viktor Gyokeres upfront… and the most important factor. We’d be better if Kai Havertz had recovered earlier. We’d have been better off if our so-called captain had played more than 1000 minutes and our starboy had shown better form. But, it’s very hard to hammer Saka for form when he’s having to partner with Gyokeres.

We’re also well into the ‘oh, we can compare Gyokeres to Kai’ and my word the difference is wild. Beyond the eyetest as well. Being a good finisher in Portugal means f*ck all in the Premier League, apparently. Who knew? Just the guy who bet the house on Fabio Vieira coming good two seasons in a row.

Gyokeres has 17 non-penalty goals and assists in 46 games this season. Kai had 16 in 29 last season in an underpowered squad that was ravaged by injury.

Then there’s this devastating view on the data of Gyokeres for his fan club that wants to insinuate the issue is service or player beef.

Literally in the 99th percentile for progressive passes received.

The biggest issues… the players don’t trust him. He can’t do the basics of the job. He has not carried us this season. He managed one open play shot on target against the top 8 clubs this season, which is catastrophic, and he has managed 2 shots on target in 4 UCL knock out games so far.

Some Gradient stats on how bad he has been…

• 62 of 63 for one-touch passing. Evanilson is number one. Jesus is 10.

• Passing he’s 62 of 63.

• Duels 54th.

• Fifty fifty challenges… 54th.

• Tackling, 37th.

• Dribbling, 54th.

• Ball carrying, 55th.

• Ball control 55th.

Stop me.

All I need to know is this… is Arteta going to play Kai as 9 this Sunday because I can’t watch him anymore.

We have to be honest. The fact we’re where we are with some so limited as a striker is a testament to the other players and the system.

So what can we end on today to give us hope?

The late fitness tests of Odegaard, Timber, and Bukayo Saka. With those three in the squad, we have a chance against City on Sunday. If they decide they can’t make it, the afternoon is going to be a really massive long shot. City are flying. Arsenal have not been.

My eyes are firmly on Saka and Odegaard if I’m honest. Both are fussy players. The expectation with them is that they should be making themselves ready for the biggest game we’ve had in a decade. Odegaard’s skillset is the closest we have to Bernado’s. If City stack up against us like they did in the League Cup final, Odegaard drops deep. If he chooses not to play, but recovers for next week, then we have a very clear narrative about courage. Bukayo also has a big ask on his hands… if he doesn’t play, we have to risk Noni, who is not in good shape. Or… we have to put a title on the shoulders of Max Dowman. I love Max, but it’s so unfair to put this on him.

Big players show up on the big occassions. Do we have those types of players? We’re about to find out. Fitness tests are likely to be today.

Oh, how I wish we had 10 more Declans.

Ok, that wasn’t so toxic positive, was it? But this podcast is, so check it out and I’ll be back with a big one tomorrow. x