Shortage of food on supermarket shelves due to Iran war ‘could be weeks away’
A food policy expert has warned the UK could be a few weeks away from certain foods becoming harder to find, getting more expensive – or even running out entirely.
Professor Tim Lang is the founder of the Centre for Food Policy at City St George’s University and author of a major report on UK food security published in February last year.
Speaking to Metro, he highlighted fresh fruit and frozen food as two of the supermarket basics that could be under threat from a carbon dioxide shortage resulting from the war in Iran.
His warning came after it was reported that the government has made contingency plans for shops running low on products such as meat and beer.
According to the Times, senior officials have rehearsed a scenario codenamed Exercise Turnstone, in which the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened and no peace deal between the US and Iran has been reached by June this year.
One of the most alarming potential consequences of the conflict in the Middle East is a lack of carbon dioxide, which is critical to the mass production of food.
The CO2 used by the industry is a byproduct of manufacturing gas-based fertiliser – which is itself under pressure from the rising price of gas.
This risk was previously highlighted by Professor Lang in his February 2025 report Just In Case, written for the National Preparedness Commission.
He told Metro: ‘If this carries on for a few weeks, you’ll find some foods beginning to get harder to get and more expensive, and some will stop.’
The report raises the use of carbon dioxide in extending the life of perishable food, stunning animals for the slaughter, fumigating spices, and putting the ‘fizz’ in soda drinks and beer.
However, Professor Lang said the ‘number one risk to British food security right now’ is the skyrocketing price of oil.
He said: ‘The food system runs on oil. There is no storage. Food moves all the time.
‘So if you’re not going to have fuel, or if the fuel that moves the food doubles in price, well, the food prices go up.’
The expert said any worries about panic buying could be overegged: ‘Endlessly, people I interviewed inside government said: “We don’t want to frighten consumers”.
‘I said, by doing nothing, you are then, when a crisis hits, you are going to frighten them.
‘We’ve got this situation right now, where the dangers are there. People who know, like me, know those dangers are there, and we haven’t been preparing.’
Retailers have said there are currently no signs of impending shortages due to the war in Iran, and rising prices for customers are a much bigger concern in the meantime.
Andrew Opie, Director of Food & Sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, said there is ‘no suggestion of any risk to food availability for consumers’ and the government’s contingency planning is a ‘normal part of ensuring the UK’s resilience’.
He added: ‘However, the situation in the Middle East continues to add inflationary pressures at a time when retailers already face significant new costs from domestic policies.
‘Government should consider what domestic policy levers it can use to reduce these costs, particularly those non-commodity charges that push up the cost of businesses’ energy bills.’
Asked what advice he would give to customers in the UK just now, while the supply of food is still strong, he said: ‘Rule number one, stop thinking “me, me, me”, think “us ourselves”.
‘What is my street? What are my neighbors? How can we can we support each other? Do we know our neighbors?’
He continued: ‘They can buy some extra food, if they can, but don’t do it in a panicky way. And make sure your neighbors know you’ve got food.’
A government spokesperson said ‘The UK has a resilient food system. At present, we do not expect any impact on food availability for consumers, and we do not expect any short-term disruption.
‘We will continue to monitor the situation and take all necessary steps to maintain supplies.’
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