Before kick-off: How the FIFA World Cup 2026 field narrows to true contenders

The 2026 World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada will be the most expansive international football tournament ever staged.

It will be the first time three nations have hosted the event and the first to feature 48 teams. However, likely winners can be narrowed down to a handful of nations.

Read on as we look at how the cream generally rises to the top in the World Cup and why that trend is expected to continue this summer.

Big guns generally dominate the World Cup

Previous World Cup finals paint an intriguing picture, with just eight nations lifting the trophy in the previous 22 editions of the tournament.

1930	Uruguay	4-2	Argentina
1934	Italy	2-1 (aet)	Czechoslovakia
1938	Italy	4-2	Hungary
1950	Uruguay	2-1	Brazil
1954	West Germany	3-2	Hungary
1958	Brazil	5-2	Sweden
1962	Brazil	3-1	Czechoslovakia
1966	England	4-2 (aet)	West Germany
1970	Brazil	4-1	Italy
1974	West Germany	2-1	Netherlands
1978	Argentina	3-1 (aet)	Netherlands
1982	Italy	3-1	West Germany
1986	Argentina	3-2	West Germany
1990	West Germany	1-0	Argentina
1994	Brazil	0-0 (aet) (3-2 pen)	Italy
1998	France	3-0	Brazil
2002	Brazil	2-0	Germany
2006	Italy	1-1 (aet) (5-3 pen)	France
2010	Spain	1-0 (aet)	Netherlands
2014	Germany	1-0 (aet)	Argentina
2018	France	4-2	Croatia
2022	Argentina	3-3 (aet) (4-2 pen)	France

Surprise finalists tend to be thin on the ground, further highlighting that it pays to focus on the top teams when predicting who will emerge victorious this summer.

Top teams fancied to shine this summer

A quick assessment of the latest FIFA World Cup futures betting markets shows why only a handful of teams can be considered as true contenders this summer.

Spain, France, England, Argentina and Brazil are the only teams currently listed at single figure odds in the outright market at the time of writing. All of them are previous winners.

Former winners Germany and Uruguay have also qualified for the tournament, but four-time winners Italy missed out on qualification after losing in the play-offs.

While this is the third consecutive time they have failed to qualify for the World Cup, the absence of big nations from the tournament tends to be an anomaly.

As the list of previous winners shows, it pays to concentrate on an elite group of teams when trying to predict who will lift the trophy on July 19.

Spain are worthy favourites having showcased their credentials with a series of impressive performances on their way to winning the 2024 European Championship.

They qualified for this summer’s tournament without any problems and their deep squad is capable of winning the World Cup for the second time this century.

France are also expected to make a deep run. Their squad is packed with hugely talented players who will be eager to impress in North America.

Didier Deschamps is set to leave his role as national team manager at the end of the tournament and will be keen to leave on a high note.

England are also prominent in the outright market despite their penchant for falling short at major tournaments. They are a risky betting proposition.

The Three Lions’ only previous success in the World Cup was in 1966 on home soil and everything points to them coming up short this summer.

South American giants Brazil and Argentina will be popular picks with sports bettors and it would be no surprise if at least one of them reached the final.

Five-time winners Brazil have not lifted the trophy since 2002 and will be desperate to show that are still a major force in international football.

Argentina deservedly won the World Cup in 2022 by beating France in the final and will be a tough nut to crack as they bid to retain the title.

The defending champions are one of the most likely winners this summer alongside Spain, France and Brazil based on historical patterns and current indicators.

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