Iranians, Mediators Study US Proposals With Eye On Possible Second Round Of Talks – Analysis

Iranian officials are set on April 16 to meet with Pakistani mediators to discuss new US proposals and decide on a possible second round of talks a day after US President Donald Trump asserted that the end of the war could come “very soon.”

“After today’s meeting of the Pakistani delegation headed by Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir with Iranian officials, the Iranian team will conduct the necessary review and then a decision will be made about the next round of negotiations between Iran and the US,” the Tasnim state-run news agency reported.

Pakistan’s powerful army chief arrived in Tehran on April 15 and was greeted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Munir, who had mediated a first round of talks, was in Iran “to narrow gaps” between the two sides.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei told a weekly press briefing in Tehran on April 15 that since the talks ended, Iran has been exchanging messages with the United States via Pakistan.

‘Can Be Over Very Soon’

Trump expressed optimism about reaching an eventual peace deal. However, the US president has often asserted that an agreement was near only to later restate threats to devastate Iran’s remaining military assets and leaders, along with its energy and power infrastructure.

“I think it can be over very soon. If they’re smart, it will end soon,” Trump said of Iranian negotiators in an interview with Fox Business News that was recorded on April 14 and broadcast on April 15.

“I think it’s close to over…. I view it as very close to being over,” Trump said.

Earlier that day, he told the New York Post that negotiators, who ended April 11-12 talks in Islamabad without a deal, could meet again in the next couple of days.

Vice President JD Vance, who led the US delegation in the first round, raised the prospect of further talks by saying “a lot of progress” had been made.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters a new round of talks “would very likely” be in the Pakistani capital. “Those discussions are being had [and] we feel good about the prospects of a deal.”

The clock is ticking on a two-week cease-fire agreed by the United States and Iran on April 7, and Trump said he has no plans to extend the truce after it expires on April 22, suggesting it would probably not be necessary.

A major point of contention is over Iran’s ability to enrich uranium. The West has accused Tehran of seeking to build a nuclear weapon, while Iran insists its program is strictly for civilian purposes.

Another contentious issue has been Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments before the war began.

After the Islamabad talks broke up, Trump announced a US blockade targeting ships bound to or from Iran. The strait connects Europe with Asia via the Suez Canal and is considered one of the most important maritime trade routes in the global economy.

The Iranian military adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on April 15 warned that Tehran would sink US ships in the strait if the United States decided to “police” the key shipping bottleneck.

“Mr Trump wants to become the police of the Strait of Hormuz. Is this really your job? Is this the job of a powerful army like the US?” said Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Khamenei himself has not been seen since the outbreak of hostilities amid speculation about his health and potential injuries from air strikes.

US Sets Financial Measures

Meanwhile, along with threats of additional military action, Washington sought to pressure Tehran with a number of financial measures.

The US ⁠Treasury ‌Department said it was slapping further sanctions on Iran’s oil transportation infrastructure by targeting more than two dozen individuals, companies, and vessels.

The sanctions target a network of Iranian oil shipping magnate Mohammad ⁠Hossein Shamkhani, the ‌Treasury Department said. Hossein Shamkhani is the son of Ali Shamkhani, a powerful nuclear and security policymaker who was killed in US-Israeli air strikes ‌on Tehran on February 28.

“Treasury is moving aggressively with Economic Fury by targeting regime elites like the Shamkhani family that attempt to profit at the expense of the Iranian people,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, referring to the US military campaign known as Operation Epic Fury.

Also, Bessent said Washington will not be renewing waivers that had enabled purchases of Iranian and Russian oil exempt from US sanctions.

The 30-day waiver — expiring this week — of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea was similar to a waiver on sanctions on Russian oil.

“We will not be renewing the general license on Russian oil, and we will not be renewing the general license ‌on Iranian oil. That was oil that was on the water prior to March 11. So all that has been used,” Bessent told a briefing.

Washington has bid to use sanctions waivers to free up more oil supplies amid soaring global energy prices.

Amid talks of potential peace negotiations, the Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East as the US administration seeks to pressure Iran into a deal while preparing for possible escalation if the cease-fire collapses, The Washington Post reports.

The buildup is said to include about 6,000 personnel aboard the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier and more than 4,000 Marines with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group, adding to roughly 50,000 US troops who are already in the region

• With reporting by RFE/RL’s Alex Raufoglu