U.S. Takes Step Closer to Popular Vote for Presidential Elections as Virginia Joins Compact

Momentum is growing behind a push to elect U.S. presidents by the national popular vote after Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger signed the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact into law this week, a step that could move the country closer to sidelining the Electoral College.

Virginia is now the latest state to be part of the compact, formally known as the the Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote, bringing the country closer to a potential shift in how presidents are elected. 

“I think this is a very straightforward, long-term plan to get us to a point where the United States is frankly what most people think it is, which is a place where every person’s vote counts the same as every other person’s vote,” Spanberger said during a virtual press conference on Tuesday, according to the Virginia news station WFXR.

“That is certainly the case in our elections at the state level,” she continued. “It is certainly the case in our elections for federal offices such as House of Representatives or U.S. senator, where every single person’s vote counts the same. Unfortunately, that is not the case when it comes to presidential elections, where by virtue of having the Electoral College, depending on the state you live in, your vote does count differently.”

This brings the total of jurisdictions in the compact to 19, including the District of Columbia. 

All jurisdictions in the compact are led by Democrats, including Connecticut, which joined in 2018, as well as Delaware and Colorado in 2019. 

Joining the compact means states would award their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide, rather than the winner in their state—an approach that would, if adopted by enough states, ensure the Electoral College outcome matches the national popular vote.

Since the turn of the century, the Democratic nominee for President has twice won the popular vote only to lose the Electoral College, and the White House. One of those instances saw President Donald Trump claim the presidency for the first time in 2016.

Virginia’s move follows a string of Democratic victories in recent elections, including Spanberger’s own win in November to become the state’s first female governor in history.

It also comes months ahead of midterm elections across the U.S., in which many more state legislative and gubernatorial seats will be on the ballot, meaning that the partisan balance of power in some parts of the country could potentially shift.

The compact would not take effect unless states representing at least 270 electoral votes—a majority of the 538 total—join. With Virginia’s addition, the total stands at 222. If the compact were to reach 270 electoral votes, experts have said that it would likely face legal challenges.

Neither Spanberger nor the White House immediately responded to TIME’s request for comment.

How does the compact work?

The compact is based on Article II of the Constitution, which grants states broad authority to determine how they allocate their electoral votes, according to the Virginia General Assembly. 

Federal law does not require states to award electoral votes based on their own popular vote results, leaving open the possibility of allocating them based on the national outcome.

Maine and Nebraska already award their votes somewhat differently from other states. While all the others currently follow that winner-takes-all system, the two states distribute some of their electoral votes by congressional district. 

If the compact takes effect, it would see participating states change their systems in order to collectively award the majority of electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, regardless of how their own residents vote. In that way, it could effectively shift the way presidential elections are determined without a change to the Constitution or federal law.

Why was the compact created?

Maryland became the first state to join the compact in 2007. The effort was spearheaded by the National Popular Vote (NPV), a group founded by John Koza in 2006, who developed the legislation. The movement emerged after the 2000 election, in which former President George W. Bush, a Republican, was elected to the White House for the first time, despite losing the popular vote to his opponent, Democratic candidate Al Gore.

NPV argues that the current system’s winner-take-all approach distorts campaign priorities and voter influence. Five U.S. Presidents have taken office without winning the popular vote, most recently when Trump won his first election in 2016.

The electoral college system also concentrates campaign activity in a small number of battleground states. 

“In 2024, 94% of the general-election campaign events took place in just seven states. That is, 43 states and 80% of U.S. voters were mere spectators to the presidential election,” according to NPV, which also claims that voter participation in these “battleground states” is higher than in the rest of the U.S.

When Maine Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, allowed the compact legislation in her state to become law without her signature in 2024, she said in a statement that she believed “the person who wins the most votes should become the president. To do otherwise seemingly runs counter to the democratic foundations of our country.”

At the same time, she acknowledged arguments against the bill, saying, “Opponents have raised legitimate questions about whether presidential candidates would want to visit Maine knowing that, under a winner-take-all system, their chance to win our electoral votes declines and, as a result, their time would be better spent elsewhere.”

Politicians who have voiced their opposition to the compact also argue that it could diminish the influence of smaller states. The Virginia Republican Party condemned Spanberger for signing the legislation into law this week, calling it an “unconstitutional assault on our democracy.”

“Fake Moderate Spanberger just signed a bill to render Virginians’ vote for president NULL AND VOID!” the party said in a post on X.

Public appetite for using the popular vote in presidential elections is strong. In September 2024, ahead of Trump winning reelection, 63% of Americans favored the system over the current electoral college process, according to the Pew Research Center.