2026 NFL Mock Draft: Caleb Downs Not a Top 15 Pick? Chiefs, Cowboys Double Up on D

As we rapidly approach the 2026 NFL Draft, are the top five picks starting to feel chalky? I certainly think so. In my latest mock draft, my first five picks remain unchanged from my first mock draft. Sure, some might say that's a boring way to approach doing a mock draft. And while I've shifted my position on where a few players will land, some things just make perfect sense. Of course, the Las Vegas Raiders are going to take Fernando Mendoza. But there's also a perfect edge rusher for the New York Jets waiting for them with the No. 2 pick. Don't worry, though, there are plenty of other changes in my mock draft. So, let's take a look at how I've shuffled the deck in my most recent mock draft. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. 1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana Super Bowl Odds: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total) Mendoza is the best quarterback in this class and he will be drafted first overall by the Raiders, who have a chance to build around him. 2. New York Jets: David Bailey, edge rusher, Texas Tech Super Bowl Odds: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total) I don’t think Bailey is the best edge prospect in this draft, but the Jets need a pure pass rusher, so they will opt for him over Arvell Reese. That makes Bailey the best draft pick for the Jets. He’s super twitchy and has elite finishing skills near the quarterback. He also has the potential to be a superstar. 3. Arizona Cardinals: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State Super Bowl Odds: +40000 (bet $10 to win $4,010 total) Arizona will select the best defensive player in the draft and can figure out where to use him once he’s in the building. Reese can play off the ball or rush the passer. I do believe he will follow the path of Micah Parsons and eventually end up as a full-time pass rusher. 4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame Super Bowl Odds: +11000 (bet $10 to win $1,110 total) The Titans will grab the best offensive player in this draft. Love is a dynamic running back with outstanding breakaway ability. He’s a three-down back who will help young QB Cam Ward. Less pressure on Ward, more on the run game. 5. New York Giants: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami Super Bowl Odds: +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total) Tough decision for the Giants at No. 5. Do they draft an offensive tackle who might project as a guard in the NFL, or do they draft an off-the-ball linebacker with the fifth pick? I think the Giants will take the player who can help Jaxson Dart immediately. Mauigoa may end up inside at guard, but he’s going to be excellent wherever he plays. 6. Cleveland Browns: Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia Super Bowl Odds: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total) Freeling needs work, but the Browns will draft him because he's probably the most pure left tackle in this class. He’s got the traits, movement skills and technique base to improve quickly. 7. Washington Commanders: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State Super Bowl Odds: +6500 (bet $10 to win $660 total) Washington needs to improve its defense, which was third-worst in yards per play last season. Styles is an off-the-ball linebacker who Dan Quinn can mold into a franchise player for his defensive unit. 8. New Orleans Saints: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State Super Bowl Odds: +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total) This is a chance for New Orleans to draft another weapon for young quarterback Tyler Shough. The fit is perfect. 9. Kansas City Chiefs: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU Super Bowl Odds: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total) I wish Rueben Bain had longer arms and could be in Kansas City, but I don’t see the Chiefs — who are in need of a pass rusher — drafting Bain with his measurables. They will opt to start replacing their depleted secondary with Delane. 10. Cincinnati Bengals: Rueben Bain Jr., edge rusher, Miami Super Bowl Odds: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total) The Bengals will end up drafting the best pass rusher on the board with the 10th pick. Bain has questions about arm length, but there’s no question about his college film. He's a skilled pass rusher with high effort. 11. Miami Dolphins: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah Super Bowl Odds: +30000 (bet $10 to win $3,010 total) The Outland Trophy winner is an outstanding fit for the Dolphins at No. 11. He can play a variety of positions along the offensive line. He also brings a toughness and physical style of football that’s helpful for a new coach trying to remake his team. 12. Dallas Cowboys: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee Super Bowl Odds: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total) Dallas will address a position of need with McCoy. He’s coming off an ACL injury in 2025, but looked the part in 2024. He's excellent in man coverage with instincts and athleticism. 13. Los Angeles Rams (via Atlanta Falcons): Makai Lemon, WR, USC Super Bowl Odds: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total) The USC receiver will stay in Los Angeles. The Rams have a need for a receiver with Adams aging and Puka Nukua needing to mature to stay on the roster. 14. Baltimore Ravens: Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State Super Bowl Odds: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total) Vega is the most ready offensive lineman in this class. He’s big, thick and plays with a mean streak. He’s improved each season as a pass protector who understands how to use his size and strength to his advantage. He has the potential to be a plus-starter in Year 1 for the Ravens. 15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Akheem Mesidor, edge rusher, Miami Super Bowl Odds: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total) If Mesidor was 22 years old, he’d be a top-10 pick. But his age (25) does give you some worry. He’s going to hit his second contract at almost 30 and that’s historically been the age where we start seeing some decline. However, the Bucs need a pass rusher, and Mesidor is a fit for their scheme. 16. New York Jets (via Indianapolis Colts): Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama Super Bowl Odds: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total) I wouldn’t draft Ty Simpson in the first round, but I’m not the Jets. The long history of NFL failure for players who started only one year in college would concern me. But it appears the Jets seem unbothered by this. They get their franchise quarterback here. 17. Detroit Lions: Kadyn Proctor, OL, Alabama Super Bowl Odds: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total) What a fit for Dan Campbell, a massive human for his offensive line. Proctor is what the Lions need to help replenish an offensive line that’s lost some pieces over the years. He can play tackle or guard, so the Lions can work to get their best five. 18. Minnesota Vikings: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State Super Bowl Odds: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total) Caleb Downs is going to grade as one of the better players in this draft, so the Vikings will hit a home run with their Harrison Smith replacement. I tried to find a place for Downs earlier in this draft, but it just didn’t happen. 19. Carolina Panthers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon Super Bowl Odds: +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total) Carolina continues to add weapons for Bryce Young. Sadiq is a mismatch for anyone guarding him while being a willing blocker in the run game. 20. Dallas Cowboys (via Green Bay Packers): CJ Allen, LB, Georgia Super Bowl Odds: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total) The Cowboys will take a linebacker from a college defense that puts reliable starters in the NFL. He’s smart, instinctive and will be the leader of the Cowboys' defense. 21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana Super Bowl Odds: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total) I have the Steelers drafting an outside receiver with reliable hands and a large catch radius. 22. Los Angeles Chargers: Caleb Banks, DT, Florida Super Bowl Odds: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total) The Chargers have their pick of the best defensive tackle or they can take any of the available defensive ends. They will take Banks with his elite skill set. 23. Philadelphia Eagles: Blake Miller, OT, Clemson Super Bowl Odds: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total) With this pick, the Eagles will find their eventual Lane Johnson replacement. Miller is tough and has an excellent football IQ, but there's still room for growth. 24. Cleveland Browns (via Jacksonville Jaguars): KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M Super Bowl Odds: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total) I wouldn’t put it past the Browns to draft another offensive lineman at 24. Instead, they will take the speedy Concepcion, with his high upside. Feels like an Andrew Berry pick. 25. Chicago Bears: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon Super Bowl Odds: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total) Thieneman's a dual-threat safety who’s willing to play in the box to tackle, which means the Bears can use him in different roles. 26. Buffalo Bills: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State Super Bowl Odds: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total) The Bills will select the receiver with the highest potential to be special in this draft. Tyson has elite catching ability, but injuries push him down the board. 27. San Francisco 49ers: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah Super Bowl Odds: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total) When I first watched Utah’s film, Lomu stood out immediately with his size and movement skills. He will need a redshirt year to get stronger before replacing Trent Williams. 28. Houston Texans: Chase Bisontis, OG, Texas A&M Super Bowl Odds: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total) Draft experts are hinting that a second offensive guard will be taken in the first round, and this feels like the logical spot for a team that needs long-term answers for their offensive line. 29. Kansas City Chiefs (via Los Angeles Rams): Keldric Faulk, edge rusher, Auburn Super Bowl Odds: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total) The Chiefs have tended to favor bigger defensive ends early in the draft and there's no one bigger in this draft than Faulk. Faulk is young and needs to work on his entire game, but the necessary traits are there. 30. Miami Dolphins (via Denver Broncos): T.J. Parker, edge rusher, Clemson Super Bowl Odds: +30000 (bet $10 to win $3,010 total) The Dolphins will get another trench player in Parker as they continue their rebuild of the roster. 31. New England Patriots: Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State Super Bowl Odds: +1900 (bet $10 to win $200 total) There is huge upside with Iheanachor. He's new to the position but has incredible physical gifts. He will sit behind Morgan Moses before taking over at right tackle in 2027 in this scenario. 32. Seattle Seahawks: Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson Super Bowl Odds: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total) His versatility and playmaking (eight forced fumbles) are a fit for this Seattle defense.