3 things the Raptors can do to beat the Cavs
So, you may have read Louis’ mammoth piece about this, and if you haven’t I recommend you do, but I’m going for short and sweet on this one. Here’s 3 things that I think are non-negotiable and of the utmost importance for the Raptors to beat the Cavaliers:
- CREATE TURNOVERS AND SCORE IN TRANSITION
This shouldn’t be particularly surprising as the Raptors are not only a team that played a top 3 transition frequency this season, but the coaches and players constantly extolled the virtue of and necessity of playing fast in the quotes. The really interesting thing about the Raptors matchups with the Cavaliers this season is that across the 3 games, both Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram scored more points in transition than anywhere else. Not in the pick n’ roll, not out of spot ups or post ups, we’re talking transition basketball. That isn’t entirely uncommon for Barnes, but it’s actually extremely uncommon for Ingram.
In the season series, Evan Mobley & Scottie Barnes were tied at the hip. Not only are they important in stopping the other defensively, but given both of their struggles from downtown, they’re also valuable to help off of in order to gum up other actions the opposing team is running. Barnes and Mobley, when guarding the other one, tend to shoot very poorly from the floor. They’re both better defenders than they are offensive players, go figure. When Barnes has scored well against the Cavs, it’s come because of run outs in transition, or cuts off of his primary defender while another player pierces middle. This volume is essential for him so he’s not seeing Mobley in front of him every time he catches the ball.
With Ingram, he’s actually not been a huge part of the Raptors transition offense so far this season. As Darko has told me in the past: “Brandon really helps us when things get slow. When we have to make it work in the half court.” To punch up against the Cavaliers though, you want to maximize everything. Against the Cavaliers this season, Ingram hit nearly a third of all his “transition trailer” triples. Coming up the rear in case the Raptors didn’t find the shot they wanted, finding himself open, and launching. It wouldn’t surprise me if Ingram is not only going to be asked to be more willing to fire away in this series, but also, that the Raptors aren’t drilling down on how they link the pitch back to Ingram into some of their favorite concepts.
From Louis’ piece:
“Cleveland is defined by playing slow. If they minimize the number of possessions in a game, they will likely be able to win the efficiency battle against any team in the league. With Harden on the court, the Cavaliers play almost a full second slower on offence than with him on the bench, which represents the largest gap on the team. (Ingram has a similar impact for Toronto, though to less positive results.)”
It will require a lot of effort and precision on the Raptors side of things to force the Cavs into increased tempo, and increasingly so with Harden now in Cleveland. But, if they manage it they’ll be moving the chains offensively in a way that only speed allows them to. Not just for Barnes & Ingram, but for the roster as a whole.
2. DO NOT LET HARDEN BEAT YOU WITH THE PASS
It’s incredibly clear to me that James Harden is most dangerous as a passer. His scoring is prodigious across his career, yes, but being that in the playoffs whistles get a bit different and pull up 3-point shooting can include a lot of variance? What Harden can do, if you’re over eager to stop his scoring, is deliver a truck load to his teammates, but especially to his uber-efficient big men.
From Louis: “With Harden on the court versus off, Allen’s 2-point percentage jumps from 62.7 to 71.3. Mobley sees a similar boost from 61.9 to 66.1; Mobley also sees his at-rim frequency skyrocket by 16 (!) percentage points from 41.9 percent of his shots to 57.6. Harden turns his bigs from solid weapons to absolutely deadly machines of war. He’s only played 137 minutes alongside both bigs, but they have had a net rating of plus-20. That is fearsome stuff.
In addition to the help that Harden provides to his bigs, he’s also been a significant boon to Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell, who saw the Raptors repeatedly load up against him in the season series. Mitchell, who shot terribly on his pull-up attempts against the Raptors. Mitchell, who didn’t quite have the savvy to unlock his cutting bigs against all that attention. Mitchell has been liberated under the house of Harden.
Prior to The Beard’s arrival, Mitchell was putting up 1.13 points per possession on drives. That puts him in a similar spot as someone like Tre Jones in terms of efficiency. It’s not bad. Since The Beard arrived, Mitchell has soard to almost 1.2 points per possession on drives, which vaults him into the top 3 of the NBA and makes him a contemporary of Luka Doncic. Unburdened by the diversion of attention, Mitchell has been going buck wild as a driver. Even Mitchell’s pick n’ roll efficiency went from roughly top 80 in the league to top 25.
Harden’s arrival to Cleveland has meant truly elite offense. It also meant a meaningful dip in shots and points for Harden. It is the Raptors job, in my opinion, to try and ratchet up Harden’s shot totals in an attempt to cut away at the assists. Harden will no doubt still score regardless of all this, but I suspect that will be less efficient than if he’s dissecting the Raptors with the pass. There’s more play style stuff that goes into this, of course. The Raptors love to pressure and overwhelm at the point of attack. They want to force passes to leap on. They want to force the faster game upon the other team. They have to walk a fine line between speeding the Cavs ball handlers up, and not getting cut to pieces.
3. KILL THE CROSS MATCHES
The Cleveland Cavaliers are, I think, a bad defensive team since Harden arrived. They are by the numbers, at least. When you look at a backcourt of Mitchell & Harden, most teams see a lot of opportunity offensively – perhaps led by one of their lead ball handlers. The Raptors are currently unsure if Immanuel Quickley will start Game 1 of this series. That really changes things for them. I have little doubt that RJ Barrett will find his way into usage and probably average north of 20 points per game in this series. He’ll cut, he’ll run second side pick n’ rolls, he’ll drive the ball. He’ll put pressure on the Cavaliers back court. The good stuff. Will the Raptors turn the offense over to him above the others, though? I doubt it.
It really depends on how the Cavs want to slice this thing up, but if they opt for Dean Wade at the 3 spot, they’d be leaning defense. In fact, the Harden-Mitchell-Wade-Mobley-Allen lineup has played to the tune of an 85 defensive rating, per cleaning the glass. Pretty good! Great, actually! If the Raptors start out games trying to score against that unit, they’ll have to play fast, as previously mentioned, but they’ll have to figure out, more than anything, how to include the Cavs backcourt in as many actions as possible. Whether that’s against the Cavs starting lineup, or otherwise. In doing this, they’ll be partaking in the classic playoff gambit of searching for mismatches.
In the matchups this year, it was only Wade who looked about the right size to guard Ingram. Before he was traded, Hunter looked a bit small. Jaylon Tyson, who I really like, looked quite small. Max Strus, who I also really like, well, I haven’t seen it, but I bet he’s too small. There will probably be a rotating cast of bodies sent Ingram’s way, and it’s his job to dispatch of them and deliver points to the Raptors. Ingram scored the majority of his points in transition against the Cavs, but next up was through post ups – and mismatches.
The Cavaliers didn’t really send help in the regular season. They were happy to see if Ingram could outmatch their smaller defenders. He did! But not through bullying his way to the rim or dissecting doubles – he did it by hitting faders over the top. I suspect the Cavaliers were fine with that outcome in the regular season, playing the numbers and all that, but I do wonder in the pressure cooker of a playoff series if some more help might be sent if shots are dropping in. This is one of the very interesting things about Ingram. Shot quality is always low, he’s not necessarily bending the defense out of shape, but he can hit the shots. If the Raptors get a hot streak from Ingram, then any shot in that area, and the Cavaliers lack of big wing defenders, could spell trouble for Cleveland.
Now, this also applies to Barnes & Barrett. With Barrett, the Raptors are comfortable to run pinch post stuff for him. With Barnes, he was actually, by the numbers, one of the better isolation players in the NBA when you include passes. He really did punish mismatches well. The prospective defensive matchups don’t seem likely to make these two focal points as mismatch killers, though. If Quickley is around for the majority of the series, I expect to see Harden on Barrett, and post defense might be Harden’s only plus defensive too. With Barnes, the Cavaliers want to keep Mobley on him, and are reluctant to switch off. It makes a lot of sense for the Raptors to ask Barnes to crush any mismatch that comes his way, but I don’t know if many will be on offer.
Anyway, should be a fun series. Thanks for reading.
Have a blessed day.
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