Cowan: Don’t be shocked if Canadiens pull off upset against battle-tested Lightning
During the Canadiens’ golf tournament last September at Laval-sur-le-Lac, president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton was asked if missing the playoffs this season would be considered a failure.
“I don’t like the word ‘failure,’ ” Gorton said. “We all want that … we all want the playoffs. We all want to keep moving forward. We made the playoffs last year. … I think we’re trying to build something for a long period of time. Again, we’re going day to day. I’m not thinking about failure. We like our group, and let’s see where it takes us. But we’d be disappointed. We want it … the players have been outspoken about that, and I wouldn’t expect anything less.”
Gorton got more than he expected as the Canadiens reached the playoffs for the second straight season with a 48-24-10 record and 106 points. That’s a 15-point improvement from last season, when they had a 40-31-11 record and then lost to the Washington Capitals in the first round of the playoffs.
General manager Kent Hughes said the objective this season was for the Canadiens to make progress. When Hughes was a guest last week on The Sick Podcast with Tony Marinaro, he was asked if the season was mission accomplished.
“Progress can be seen through a lot of different lenses, I guess, from our chair, or my chair and management’s perspective,” Hughes said. “There’s a lot of good things that happened this year. Marty (St. Louis) is the most positive guy in the world. We can play the worst game, and he’s going to find something good about it. And I’m probably the guy that could watch us play the best game and look at something that we could do better. So I feel like as we assess our group all the time — at least I’m always thinking about it, and I know Gorts is the same — what are we going to do better? What do we need to add?
“So I hate to say that anything’s ever accomplished,” Hughes added. “I think we accomplish something when we win the Stanley Cup. But are we heading in a direction that we’re comfortable with? Yes.”
The next step in the team’s progression is a tough playoff series against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Game 1 in Tampa is expected to be Sunday, with the Lightning having home-ice advantage in the best-of-seven series.
The Lightning reached the playoffs for the ninth straight season and the 12th time in the last 13 years — a period during which the team has advanced to the Stanley Cup final four times, winning twice (2020 and ’21). The Lightning also lost twice in the conference final during that span, but also lost in the first round in each of the last three seasons.
“I think that’s great for us to have to go up against a team that’s battle-tested like them, and I think we’ll learn from it and I think we’ll give them a real good run,” Hughes said when he was an intermission guest on TSN’s coverage of the Canadiens’ 4-2 loss to the Flyers in Philadelphia Tuesday night in their final regular-season game.
I agree that the Canadiens can give the Lightning a very good run, but I think Tampa’s playoff experience and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy will be the difference in the series.
Vasilevskiy has a career 16-5-2 regular-season record against the Canadiens and a career .918 save percentage in the playoffs. When the Lightning beat the Canadiens in the 2021 Stanley Cup final, Vasilevskiy had a 4-1 record with a 1.58 goals-against average and a .943 save percentage. This season, he had a 39-15-4 record with a 2.31 GAA and a .912 save percentage.
As much as I’d love to see the Canadiens beat Tampa — it would be great for the city, the fans and the team — I have to pick the Lightning to win the series in six games, possibly seven.
Losing to the Lightning would not be a failure for a Canadiens team with an average age of 26.
The future is looking very bright.
I also wouldn’t be shocked if the Canadiens beat the Lightning because anything can happen in the playoffs and this young team has an incredible fighting spirit. The Canadiens beat the Lightning in their last two regular-season matchups by scores of 4-1 and 2-1. But the loss of defenceman Noah Dobson with a thumb injury is a big blow to the Canadiens and a lot will depend on the play of rookie goalie Jakub Dobes and/or fellow rookie Jacob Fowler.
“Whenever you’re a young team and you’re trying to win your first playoff round, I feel that usually takes you to the next level,” St. Louis told reporters in Philadelphia after Tuesday’s game. “We’re going to have to do it against a very experienced, good Tampa team. What a great opportunity. How far does that propel us if we can get through that?
“Our season, our process, the quality people we have, the quality players … we’re able to adjust and adapt, and I feel there’s not one style of game that we can’t play,” St. Louis added. “I just feel like, let’s go!”
Win or lose, this season has already been a success for the Canadiens.
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