Canada's summer forecast is warmer than average, except for one region
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has revealed its summer forecast, and Canada is predicted to experience “warmer than normal” weather this year.
A publication with a long history in weather forecasting, The Old Farmer’s Almanac is America’s oldest weather forecaster — originally created as a calendar for farmers and gardeners to plan the year ahead — and is widely known for its long-range predictions.
When it comes to Canada’s summer weather, it says : “This summer is expected to trend warmer than normal across much of the country, including southern Quebec, the Prairies, and southern British Columbia. Northern regions — including Yukon and the Northwest Territories — are also likely to see above-average warmth, while parts of southern Ontario are likely to see more mixed temperature patterns.”
Meanwhile, rainfall patterns are expected to be more varied, resulting in a mix of wetter and drier conditions across the country.
“Wetter conditions are expected across Atlantic Canada, southern Ontario, the southern Prairies, and southern British Columbia, while other regions — including parts of the North and interior — may see a mix of above- and below-normal precipitation.”
The Almanac’s regional breakdown focuses largely on southern Canada, with six of seven regions forecast to see warmer-than-average temperatures.
The outlier is Atlantic Canada, which is expected to be cooler than average, while parts of eastern southern Ontario may also trend cooler.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts weather trends by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity, and claims to be 80 per cent accurate.
National Post spoke to Professor Kent Moore, from the University of Toronto’s Department of Chemical and Physical Sciences, who explained what Canadians can expect from this summer — and why Atlantic Canada may not see above-average temperatures.
One of the big drivers, he explained, is El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
“With El Niño, we typically find warmer conditions in Canada during the summer, though it’s mostly in the west. So western Canada tends to have a warmer, drier summer.”
He added: “In eastern Canada, the effects are more muted, but it will probably be a warmer summer overall.”
In more good news for Canadians, El Niño typically results in a milder winter, too.
“If things go as we think they’re going to, we’ll have a mild winter in Ontario next year, which would be great, having just come through a really brutal winter,” Moore says.
Strongest El Niño on record this year?!
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) April 6, 2026
New ECMWF guidance shows a *75% chance of a super El Niño* by October, with some scenarios suggesting the most intense event in more than a century.
It will bring wide-reaching weather impacts that last into 2027 ???? pic.twitter.com/cRZrxGCxAa
This year, forecasters are predicting a “super El Niño,” which could result in extreme weather events and potentially record-breaking global temperatures.
Moore cautioned: “There are concerns, because with dry and warm conditions, the potential for wildfire season to be extreme is quite high.”
Canada has already seen record wildfire damage in recent years, with roughly 32 million hectares of land scorched over the past three years.
However, Moore adds that long-range forecasts such as those offered by the Old Farmer’s Almanac are “challenging” and often “vague.”
“They’ll say it’s cool and dry or warm and rainy, but that’s a bit vague. It’ll always be cool and dry for a bit of the time, so they’re always a bit right.”
But with El Niño on the way, Moore is confident that Canadians can expect the warmer-than-average summer predicted.
“When we have an El Niño, the global average surface temperature tends to go up. So we may have a warmest year on record coming up, either this summer or the next.”
Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.