What is ‘super El Niño’ and could it hit the UK this summer?
From deadly storms, heavy rain and snow to warm summer temperatures, it’s fair to say the UK has already experienced all types of weather this year.
But a natural phenomenon known as El Niño and La Niña could push up global temperatures later in 2026, with initial warnings suggesting this year could be a particularly ‘super’ event.
El Niño and La Niña form some of the Earth’s most important natural weather systems, affecting temperatures and rainfall around the world.
This year could see a rare super El Niño, which could bring unpredictable weather from heatwaves, heavy downfalls of rain and impactful storms later in the year to the UK.
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What is El Niño and what does it mean?
El Niño refers to the warming of the sea surface temperature and is a phenomenon that occurs every few years, according to the Met Office.
It is declared when the temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean reach 0.5°C above average.
The effects of the phenomenon typically peak towards the end of the year, usually in December.
The phenomenon is believed to have been first observed by Peruvian fishermen in the 1600s, who nicknamed the weather occurrence ‘El Niño de Navidad’.
The name translates to Christ’s Child in Spanish.
With El Niño, which drives up warmer temperatures, La Niña, which translates to ‘the little girl’ in Spanish, also occurs, resulting in the opposite effect, impacting colder temperatures.
Each episode occurs from year to year rather than within a single season as part of a cycle called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
How does El Niño affect the weather?
El Niño can impact the weather in several ways, including temperature, rainfall, tropical storms and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.
The weather occurrence pushes global temperatures higher by releasing heat from the oceans into the atmosphere.
The UK’s hottest year on record in 2024 was boosted by El Niño, and it looks as though this year’s occurrence could bring more heatwaves in the future.
Unpredictable weather is likely too, with an increased risk of unseasonably warm spell to periods of heavy rainfall.
Is a ‘super’ El Niño coming to the UK in 2026?
The effects of a super El Nino could be graver than a regular one.
A super El Niño is typically more intense with ocean temperatures exceeding 2°C above average.
Although rare, the phenomenon can significantly impact global temperatures and, in turn, cause weather extremes.
The likelihood of a super El Niño happening this year is shockingly high, with some forecasters predicting the phenomenon could start in the spring or summer, which could mean we may see a hotter summer in the UK.
There is a 23% chance of a ‘very strong’ El Niño and a 50% chance of a ‘strong’ version of it, according to the latest reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
It predicts that Pacific Ocean temperatures will rise to at least 1.5°C warmer than average.
With El Niño, the UK could experience yet another year of record-breaking temperatures, which is already being driven by climate change.
Storm tracks across the Atlantic could also impact how and where winter storms develop in the UK, following this year’s earlier storms of Dave, Chandra, Ingrid, and Goretti.
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