Goalies are under siege as the NHL save percentage dips to its lowest point in three decades
When he was an NHL goaltender, Brian Boucher recalls that he would look up at the shot counter and keep telling himself how many more pucks he would need to stop to make it a good game.
“It was a way to kind of validate what you were doing and how you felt about yourself and kind of a barometer that you used to gauge your game,” Boucher said.
He hopes this generation is not doing that, and with good reason. This season is making history and not in a good way for goalies.
The average save percentage is under .900 for the first time in three decades, and .896 is on track to be the lowest since 1994. Shooters from forwards to offensive defensemen are more skilled and selective and hockey has never been faster. The combination of factors is forcing a recalculation of what success looks like at the sport’s most important position.
“The players evolve and they get better,” said Washington’s Logan Thompson, whose .912 save percentage ranks second among goalies with 50 or more starts and fourth overall through games earlier this week. “Their sticks get better. Their shots get harder. They kind of know sneaky little spots, or they’re not shooting as many pucks as they did back in the day, as well.”
Shots are down across the NHL
Indeed, 27.8 shots a game is the lowest total since the so-called dead puck era of the late ’90s and early 2000s when hooking, holding and obstruction led to rule changes coming out of the 2004-05 lockout designed to create more goals. The changes have worked — and then some.
Teams are combining to score over six goals per game and have been at that clip each of the past four seasons. Players are also looking for the extra pass rather than settling for even a B-level scoring chance.
“It’s insane,” said Dallas’ Jake Oettinger, whose .900 save percentage is by far the lowest of his six-year career. “Guys will have it in the slot and they’re passing it, where I feel like 10 years ago it was just pucks on net. I think guys are way more skilled, so when they get Grade-A chances, they’re that much more talented and everyone can shoot.”
Like Boucher, retired goaltender Martin Biron says the game has changed entirely from when he played. During his prime, the league-average save percentage got as high as .911.
“A lot of it was straight on: a guy coming down the wing, taking a shot,” Biron said. “All I had to worry about was the shooter, my angles and it was a lot easier.”
Sports gambling could also be a factor
It is now more common for a shot total from a game to change after the game or even the following day, which of course changes how many saves a goalie made. Oettinger and Stars backup Casey DeSmith dislike the change.
“They just take shots away that are shots on goal,” Oettinger said. “There are probably three a game. If you multiple that by 50 games, that’s like having five more shutouts that they’re taking away.”
Statistical adjustments are under the microscope since sports gambling became legal in the U.S. and Canada. Because wagers are offered for shots on goal, they are looked at and reviewed meticulously.
“All of that auditing that the league is doing with shots, and honestly it stems from gambling,” Biron said. “People don’t want to lose their bets if there was a shot that was missing the net or whatnot.”
The NHL sees it as a result of puck and player tracking and other technological advancements, which provide more precise data for the league as well as gambling operators. Reviewing the data can lead to changes after the in-game decisions by the official scorekeeper.
Is slimmer equipment taking a toll?
One of the ways the NHL tried to increase offense is by shrinking goaltender equipment over the years. The intent was to reduce the size of shoulder pads and chest protectors and slim down the pants to give skaters more places to aim at while not taking away from netminders’ safety.
Thompson likes his gear smaller and tighter because of how much he moves around. He has noticed a difference when it comes to shots that used to hit a pant leg but now go in.
“Sometimes, there might be a shot that it looks weak but it goes kind of through your knees and there’s really nothing else you can do: There’s just a little hole there and sometimes the puck goes in,” Thompson said. “That’s out of your control.”
Thompson, who is in his second season with the Capitals and played a game for Canada at the Olympics as Jordan Binnington’s backup, thinks hockey is transitioning away from big, blocking goaltenders who were prioritized for their size to those with more agility in the crease.
“I don’t think you can be a blocking-style goalie,” Thompson said. “With how good and skilled all these players are in this league, you’ve got to be able to react and use your hands. … You’ve got to be able to react because the shooters, they make too good of shots and too good of plays now.”
Goalies have some work to do, too
Players and teams in recent years have employed skill coaches to beef up scoring. But goalie-specific coaches have been around for years, too, and may have some adjusting to do.
“Shooters are getting good, and it’s time for goalies to adjust a little bit,” Biron said. “It’s not the north-south game anymore. It’s an east-west game, so goalies have to adjust to that. They have to become much more conscious of the puck moving laterally, and the better goalies are the ones that can move laterally so much better.”
Biron points to Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy, Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Boston’s Jeremy Swayman and the New York Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin as some of the best at moving laterally, and the numbers show it. Vasilevskiy at .912 and Luukkonen at .910 rank third and eighth in the NHL, while Swayman and Sorokin are each at .906.
Where shots are coming from also has to do with coaches being willing to sacrifice some defense to get quality scoring opportunities.
“Now teams are more OK with giving up what they give up,” Oettinger said. “That’s kind of just the style now. It’s less defensive-minded and more try to score as much as you can.”
With all the changes, Boucher said he wonders if the benchmark standard will return to .900 — stopping nine of 10 shots — like he focused on long ago. Thompson was watching a recent Stars game against New Jersey in which Oettinger was pulled after allowing four goals on eight shots. The teams combined for 10 on 51 total shots, an .803 save percentage that night.
“You can say, ‘Oh, the goaltending wasn’t good,'” Thompson said. “But at the same time, I don’t really know many goalies who are going to be making those stops.”
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