Kheiriddin: Liberal win in Terrebonne could push more Conservative MPs to flee

Lots of ink has already been spilled on the impact of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s historic majority: the implications for the Liberal agenda, for House of Commons committees, and for the country. But one byelection matters more than the others: the riding of Terrebonne, which saw Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste score a victory in traditional Bloc Québécois territory with a 731-vote margin, and which could reshape politics in both Quebec and Ottawa.  

Auguste’s win was a bad sign not just for the Bloc, but for the Parti Québécois. According to sources in Quebec, the PQ sent lots of ground troops into Terrebonne to bolster the Bloc campaign — and their candidate still came up short. The result mirrors provincial polls that show the PQ neck and neck with the provincial Liberal party, and its new leader, Charles Milliard. While the two Liberal parties are distinct entities, the loss still stings — and the timing is bad.  

In six months, Quebecers will go to the polls in a provincial election. Until this year, the PQ was leading the field, but now, with new leadership in both the Liberal party and the Coalition Avenir Quebec, voters have shifted. The PQ senses trouble, and is seeking out new markets, notably on the right. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon recently gave an interview to Rebel News where he played to the provincial Conservative party crowd — a party that currently counts between 10-15 per cent support, and whose voters could make the difference in rural and exurban ridings. 

This is music to Carney’s ears: a Liberal win would mean he wouldn’t have to deal with the spectre of another PQ referendum. But the fly in the ointment could be newly minted CAQ leader Christine Fréchette. Should she retain 18 per cent support, as her party currently polls, she could deny the Liberal party victory by splitting the federalist / centrist vote, to the benefit of the PQ. 

Then there are the federal Conservatives. Rumours are flying in Quebec about the possibility of local MPs either defecting to the Liberals or simply leaving caucus and sitting as independents. Four names are circulating among Conservative insiders and media in Quebec: Joël Godin, Richard Martel, Eric Lefebvre and Dominique Vien.   

Vien has shut the door on floor crossing, but that’s not the only way out. She would be a great get for Milliard in the provincial election — she served as a Liberal minister in the governments of Jean Charest and Philippe Couillard from 2010 to 2018, and at 59 might still relish some time on the government benches, which she won’t get in Ottawa. Her departure would mean one less Conservative MP — and another shot for the Liberals at padding their majority. 

Godin was absent from the Conservative convention in January, on a trade mission to the Balkans, which set tongues wagging. But sources say he fears too much backlash to change parties. As for Lefebvre and Martel, speculation is not that they would join Carney, but that they might leave caucus to sit as independents. The reason? To force caucus to oust Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, after which they could return under new management.  

The biggest loser of the night may well be Pierre Poilievre.

The biggest loser of the night may well be Poilievre. In the words of one source, “If those four go, it’s the end of Pierre.” Some Quebec Conservatives are also puzzled as to why their party chose to run a candidate in Terrebonne at all, rather than help the Bloc defeat the Liberals. Had the Liberals lost there, at least it wouldn’t look like Carney is a draw in Quebec. Now, it’s clear he is. 

According to Rudy Husny, a former Conservative adviser based in Montreal, “With a Liberal majority until 2029, snap-election fears are gone, and so is the argument that the Conservative leader can’t be replaced due to urgency or timing.” In other words, Poilievre’s days could be numbered.

Cue the violins, or perhaps, the violons.

Tasha Kheiriddin is Postmedia’s national politics columnist.

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