The 'Groundhog Day' scenario playing out in markets is exhausting investors

• The push and pull of the Iran war has the same types of days in markets playing out over and over.
• That's made investors numb to new developments, and they've started looking at other catalysts.
• Welcome to the market's "Groundhog Day" era.

My last several Sundays have felt like the movie "Groundhog Day."

When the clock strikes 6 pm ET, I watch oil markets open and inevitably go haywire in one direction or another, because of a new Iran-war announcement or report from over the weekend. Stock futures also go pretty nuts — and almost always in the opposite direction as oil.

Sometimes the development is a threat. Other times it's a deescalation. It keeps happening over and over, to the point where I've lost track of the weeks.

It's started to pervade my non-work life. This past Sunday, as I watched golfer Rory McIlroy wrap up his second straight Masters victory, I found myself wondering if he knew that oil had just surged back above $100 per barrel while he was playing the back nine. "That's not ideal for someone who flies private as often as he does," I muttered to myself.

And it's not just Sundays. There have been rapid policy pivots and subsequent market gyrations during the week, too.

It's tiring! And I don't think I'm the only one who feels that way. The market's response on Monday to President Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade suggests not only a similar level of exhaustion, but also that investors are starting to focus on other catalysts.

The S&P 500 actually finished Monday up 1%, officially recovering its Iran-driven losses, a first since the war began at the end of February. That marked a sharp bounce back after futures traded more than 1% lower overnight.

And sure, oil prices rose Monday, but nowhere near what one might think, considering we're talking about shutting the entire Strait of Hormuz. Despite the pressure, Brent came nowhere close to hitting its wartime high of nearly $120.

The behavior shows investors have gotten numb to the back and forth. They're now treating President Trump's war threats like a "boy who cried wolf" situation. Each time oil prices have spiked, the president has stepped in and catalyzed a sharp reversal. They're now thinking: Why not just stay put and wait it out?

It's also possible that investors were relatively unmoved on Monday because they're buying into some of the positive scenarios being floated by Wall Street.

In new research on Monday, Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson argued that energy prices have already peaked, said the war is largely priced in, and tripled (quadrupled?) down on his bullish equity outlook.

Still, the main piece of uncertainty for investors is how long the biggest oil-market disruption in history will be felt. What happens if the $100-per-barrel level stays breached for an extended period, as we continue to absorb aftershocks?

That's the concern that keeps some investors up at night — and continues to make oil-price data appointment viewing for me every Sunday evening.