Parliamentary elections viewed as de facto presidential primaries, new poll finds

A new Noverna Analytics survey conducted on behalf of Politis indicates that most voters see the upcoming parliamentary elections as a decisive stage in the selection of potential presidential candidates for 2028.

The findings, published on Tuesday, are based on 1,005 interviews carried out between March 27 and April 6.

The survey shows that parliamentary elections are increasingly viewed not as a standalone contest but as a qualifying round for the presidential race.

The report states that electoral outcomes are expected to “legitimise or undermine future presidential choices”.

The poll also measures sentiment toward possible 2028 presidential candidates and finds no figure with strong positive momentum.

President Nikos Christodoulides records 30 per cent positive and 60 per cent negative sentiment.

Former auditor-general Odysseas Michaelides stands at 29 per cent positive and 54 per cent negative.

Former negotiator and presidential candidate Andreas Mavroyiannis records 27 per cent positive and 57 per cent negative.

House speaker Annita Demetriou follows with 26 per cent positive and 64 per cent negative sentiment.

Former Disy leader Averof Neophytou and former Akel MP Irene Charalambides each record 24 per cent positive ratings, alongside rejection rates above 60 per cent.

Party leaders also show high negative sentiment, with Akel secretary general Stephanos Stephanou recording 17 per cent positive and 72 per cent negative views.

Elam leader Christos Christou records 14 per cent positive and 77 per cent negative sentiment.

The report describes this as a “generalised deficit of political acceptance”.

In regard to government policy, approval ratings remain low, with only 24 per cent approval of the state’s handling of the recent foot and mouth disease outbreak, while 57 per cent disapprove.

On defence policy, approval falls to 23 per cent, with 67 per cent disapproval.

The government’s support mechanisms for livestock farmers also poll poorly, with only six per cent describe measures as “very adequate” and fifty-seven per cent considering them wholly inadequate.

External financial pressures also feature prominently, with seventy-two per cent of respondents say they are “very concerned” about rising electricity and fuel prices linked to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Concerns over tourism and refugee flows follow at around 40 per cent.

Age analysis shows older respondents are more concerned about prices and tourism, with respondents aged 55 to 64 recording the highest concern over security.

The report also remarks that around one in four voters remains undecided, or unlikely to vote, with most of this group having previously supported Disy or Akel in the last elections in 2021.

Disy and Akel lead neck and neck, as Elam holds third, Direct Democracy of Cyprus stands at fourth, and Alma slips to fifth place.

The analysis adds that parliamentary fragmentation remains likely, due to the inclusion of six or more parties, with the largest bloc potentially holding as few as 13 seats.