New Zealand’s Fuel Stocks Look Safe. The Refineries Supplying Us Tell a Different Story

New Zealand’s fuel stocks look stable on paper. The real danger lies thousands of kilometres upstream, at the refineries that keep us supplied and the crude oil they can no longer easily get.

Twice a week, the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment publishes a reassuring set of numbers. As of 8 April, New Zealand had 59.7 days of petrol, 49.1 days of diesel, and 50.7 days of jet fuel. Ships are arriving. The pumps are running. There is, officials say, no need for New Zealanders to change how they buy fuel.

That is all true. But it is also incomplete. Because the question most New Zealanders should be asking is not how much refined fuel is on its way here. It is whether the raw crude oil is still getting to the refineries that make it.

Since the closure of the Marsden Point refinery in 2022, New Zealand imports every drop of its refined petrol, diesel, and jet fuel. It arrives mostly from refineries in South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia, countries that sit at the end of the world’s most disrupted supply chain.

The Strait That Stopped

The Strait of Hormuz, a passage barely 34 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, carried roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day before the war. That represented about a fifth of all the world’s seaborne oil trade. Since the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran began on 28 February, tanker traffic through the strait has dropped to virtually zero.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard issued warnings forbidding passage, launched confirmed attacks on at least 21 merchant ships, and reportedly laid sea mines. Major shipping firms suspended operations. Oil exports from the Gulf region fell by around 60 percent. Iraq declared force majeure on all foreign-developed oil fields. Saudi Arabia cut production by 20 percent after two offshore facilities were shut down.

Tanker transits through Hormuz have fallen from approximately 60 per day to near zero. Gulf oil exports dropped from roughly 25 million barrels per day to around 10 million. Brent crude peaked at US$126 per barrel, up from around US$60 in late 2025. The International Energy Agency described it as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

As of 12 April, the situation worsened. US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed and President Trump declared a naval blockade on the strait, announcing that the US Navy would intercept vessels entering or exiting.

Where New Zealand’s Fuel Really Comes From

To understand New Zealand’s exposure, you need to trace the supply chain backwards. The refined fuel in our service stations starts as crude oil, pumped in the Middle East, West Africa, or the Americas, loaded onto tankers, shipped to refineries across Asia, processed into petrol, diesel, and jet fuel, and then loaded onto product tankers bound for Aotearoa. It is a chain with many links, and the most important ones are now under strain.

South Korea

South Korea is New Zealand’s most critical supplier. Before the crisis, roughly 68 percent of South Korea’s crude oil imports transited the Strait of Hormuz. That supply has been largely severed.

To keep its refineries running, the South Korean government has scrambled to secure 110 million barrels of crude for April and May from 17 alternative countries, from Congo and Gabon to Brazil, Canada, and the United States, plus Saudi oil routed via the Red Sea port of Yanbu and UAE crude via Fujairah, both bypassing Hormuz. Korean refiners are adapting to unfamiliar crude grades, often from much further afield, at significantly higher cost.

But even with this improvisation, South Korea has already imposed a five-month restriction on naphtha exports, a signal that it is beginning to prioritise domestic supply. If pressure on crude feedstocks intensifies, restrictions on refined fuel exports could follow.

Singapore

Singapore’s position is somewhat more resilient. It has always sourced crude from a wider range of suppliers, and its government has said refineries are maintaining stable operations on diverse supply. But even Singapore is not immune. Reports indicate that Southeast Asian refineries, including facilities in Singapore and Malaysia, have cut back output due to constrained crude availability.

The Wider Asian Picture

Across the region, the picture is one of tightening supply and rising competition for non-Gulf crude. China, the world’s biggest crude importer, which received a third of its oil via Hormuz, has been curbing fuel exports. India has raised export duties on diesel and aviation fuel. Japan, which normally sources 93 percent of its crude through the strait, has asked its government to release strategic stockpiles.

The refined fuel is still flowing for now. But the refineries supplying New Zealand are running on borrowed time, sourcing alternative crude from further afield, at higher prices, with no guarantee the workarounds will hold.

Asian demand is already estimated to be down by nearly 2 million barrels per day as the supply crunch forces consumption cuts. Analysts warn that if the strait remains closed for a second month, global energy markets will become a fight for supplies, benefiting buyers who can outbid others and leaving smaller, more distant importers like New Zealand increasingly vulnerable.

What the New Zealand Numbers Actually Show

The government’s twice-weekly fuel stock updates are more granular than they used to be. Since late March, MBIE has split on-water stocks into two categories. Fuel within New Zealand’s Exclusive Economic Zone (up to two days from port), and fuel on ships outside the EEZ (up to three weeks away).

The headline figures as at 8 April were 59.7 days of petrol (of which 25.6 days in-country), 49.1 days of diesel (21.7 days in-country), and 50.7 days of jet fuel (25.1 days in-country).

Those headline figures include fuel on ships up to three weeks away. That is fuel New Zealand has contracted for but does not physically possess. If something were to disrupt the shipping pipeline, a diversion of product tankers to higher-paying Asian markets, an export restriction from a supplier country, or simply a delay in refinery output, those on-water numbers could evaporate.

The in-country figures are the ones that matter in a crunch. At around 22 to 26 days across the three fuel types, they sit very close to the Minimum Stockholding Obligations that only came into force in January 2025. The mandated minimums are 28 days for petrol, 21 days for diesel, and 24 days for jet fuel. In-country petrol stocks at 25.6 days are already below the 28-day MSO threshold. There is very little fat.

According to independent monitoring site NZ Fuel Watch, the margin by which in-country petrol stocks exceed the MSO is as little as 0.3 days when measured against total obligation. One delayed cargo could push stocks below the legal floor.

The Vulnerability No One Planned For

New Zealand’s fuel security architecture was designed for a world where oil flows freely through open sea lanes. The Marsden Point refinery closure in 2022 removed the country’s last domestic backstop. The MSO regime, introduced in 2025, was a step forward, but it set minimum stockholdings based on normal commercial rhythms, not a prolonged global supply crisis.

There is no government-held strategic reserve of diesel. The Labour government planned one in 2023, an additional seven days of diesel storage, but the incoming National government shelved it. That decision is now being revisited under crisis conditions, with funding approved to recommission storage tanks at the former Marsden Point site.

New Zealand also holds International Energy Agency “oil tickets”, agreements with the US, UK, and Japan that count overseas oil toward our 90-day IEA obligation. But as one energy commentator noted, paper tickets are a long way from a tanker full of oil. If those countries are simultaneously stressed, and all three are, the tickets may be worth less than they appear.

What Happens Next

The immediate outlook depends on two things New Zealand cannot control. Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and whether Asian refineries continue to prioritise exports to smaller markets like ours.

For now, the government says fuel importers have confirmed their orders and shipments through to the end of May. The Prime Minister has expressed confidence. MBIE says it has received no reports of material issues with future deliveries.

But the global context is darkening. The US-Iran talks have failed. A US naval blockade adds a new layer of escalation. Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel. Asian refiners are cutting back output and hoarding supply. And New Zealand, a small, distant, import-dependent country at the end of the world’s longest supply chain, has no refinery, limited storage, and roughly three weeks of fuel actually sitting in tanks on its own soil.

The ships keep coming. The question is whether anyone upstream is still filling them.

New Zealand sits at the end of the world’s longest fuel supply chain. It has no refinery, limited storage, and roughly three weeks of fuel on its own soil. Everything depends on what happens thousands of kilometres away, at refineries we do not own, processing crude we cannot guarantee. The case for reducing this dependence by building domestic renewable energy has never been stronger.

Sources

• MBIE fuel stocks updates, April 2026
• IEA Oil Market Report, March 2026
• S&P Global Platts
• RNZ, 1News, NZ Herald, Newsroom, The Spinoff
• Bloomberg, The Diplomat, Time
• NZ Fuel Watch

This article draws on publicly available reporting and government data. Fuel stock figures are as published by MBIE and may not reflect real-time conditions.

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