National Struggling in the Polls as Election Year Heats Up

Two new polls published this week paint an anxious picture for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the National-led coalition, with New Zealand’s general election now just seven months away and National’s party vote failing to break back through the 30 percent barrier.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll, conducted on April 1 and 2, placed Labour at 35.6 percent and National at 30.8 percent. Under that scenario, the country would be left in political limbo, with both the current coalition and the Labour-Greens opposition bloc each winning 60 seats in Parliament. That kind of deadlock would require intensive negotiations with minor parties to form a workable government, and neither side can currently claim a clear mandate.

The Taxpayers Union-Curia poll, also conducted across the same two days, offered a slightly more encouraging picture for the government. National came in at 29.8 percent, up 1.4 points from March, while New Zealand First recorded what pollsters described as a record result, rising 3.9 points to 13.6 percent. ACT gained 1.5 points to finish on 9 percent. Under that polling aggregate, the three-party coalition would retain the numbers to govern.

But two polls showing such different results underline the genuine uncertainty now gripping the political landscape heading into the campaign year. What both polls agree on is that Luxon’s personal ratings have softened considerably. In the RNZ-Reid Research survey, Luxon recorded a net approval score of -20.6 when voters were asked whether he was performing well as prime minister, with half of all respondents, 50.4 percent, saying he was doing poorly. That is his weakest result in the Reid Research series since he became National leader in 2021. His preferred prime minister rating dropped 2.1 points to 17.3 percent, behind Labour leader Chris Hipkins at 20.7 percent and not far ahead of New Zealand First’s Winston Peters at 13.1 percent.

In the Taxpayers Union poll, both Hipkins and Luxon dipped slightly, with Hipkins on 21.7 percent and Luxon on 20.5 percent. The thinness of the gap between the two leaders in the preferred prime minister rankings is itself a story. Hipkins led New Zealand through the final stages of the previous Labour government and has spent more than two years rebuilding the party from opposition. That his numbers have held, and that Luxon has not managed to open clear water between them despite being the incumbent prime minister, will concern those inside the National Party who hoped the office itself would lift their leader’s standing.

Luxon has had a difficult few months. The fuel crisis sparked by conflict in the Middle East has dominated domestic policy, forcing the government to introduce a temporary $50-per-week boost to the in-work tax credit for around 143,000 lower-income working families. That package was passed into law in late March after Parliament approved an amendment to the annual tax bill, and payments began flowing in early April. Whether the relief is seen as decisive action or an admission that the government was caught off guard by the fuel shock is still being debated.

The government also reshuffled its cabinet at the start of April, with Prime Minister Luxon making changes he described as a reflection of his team’s growing experience. Among the most discussed moves was the effective demotion of Housing Minister Chris Bishop, who lost his roles as Leader of the House and National’s campaign chair. Bishop took on the attorney-general portfolio, which carries prestige but is a less prominent public-facing role than the ones he relinquished. Simeon Brown was named as the new campaign chair, and first-term MP Mike Butterick was elevated into a ministerial position. Analysts noted that Bishop had faced persistent leadership speculation in the latter part of last year, and the reshuffle has done little to quiet that background noise.

For Luxon, the political calculus at this point in the electoral cycle is genuinely difficult. His coalition depends on New Zealand First maintaining its elevated support, and Peters has proven over many decades that his party is capable of attracting protest votes from people who feel overlooked by the major parties. The Taxpayers Union poll’s record result for New Zealand First at 13.6 percent reflects the unusual dynamics of this political environment, in which a significant portion of the electorate appears to be parking its vote with a minor party rather than rallying to either of the two main options.

Labour, meanwhile, has held its footing under Hipkins with consistent polling in the mid-to-upper 30s. The party has benefited from being in opposition during a period of genuine economic strain for many New Zealanders, and from the perception held by some voters that the government’s management of the fuel crisis and its broader economic programme has not delivered visible improvements to everyday life. National came to office in late 2023 promising to get the economy moving and to bring down the cost of living. The polling suggests that for a large share of the voting public, that promise has not yet been felt.

The two polls also capture a New Zealand First in rude health, at least in the survey data. Peters’ party appears to be drawing support from voters who might otherwise lean National but who feel the government’s economic management has been too cautious or too slow. Whether that support holds through the campaign, or whether it returns to National as the prospect of a change of government becomes more immediate, is one of the defining questions of the 2026 race. New Zealand First has a history of outperforming polls in one election and then retreating sharply in the next.

New Zealand’s general election is scheduled for November 2026. The next several months will test whether Luxon can mount a credible recovery in the polls and whether the government’s economic and fiscal decisions begin to translate into improved household confidence. Both major parties will be ramping up their campaign operations in the weeks ahead. National has already made structural changes to its campaign team, and Labour will be seeking to build on its current polling lead as it develops its election platform.

What New Zealanders across the political spectrum are making clear through their survey responses is that this election is not yet decided, and that no party should assume they have a clear path to victory without serious work between now and polling day.

What do you make of the current polls? Do you think the government can turn the numbers around before November? Share your thoughts in the comments below.