A messy California governor’s race raises Democratic fears of potential loss
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Democrats have run California for years, but in a nationally critical election the party is being confronted by the limits of its own power: the race for governor is out of control.
Barely a month before the start of mail-in voting, Democratic leaders are openly dreading the possible loss of a statewide election for the first time in two decades. As candidates jockey in a crowded field, the contest has degenerated into finger-pointing over debate eligibility, identity politics and 2025 ballot counting, issues distant from voters struggling with the soaring cost of gas and groceries.
“Squabbles about debates or other inside baseball politics are likely under the radar for most voters and seem almost absurd, given what’s facing us,” Kim Nalder, director of the Project for an Informed Electorate at California State University, Sacramento, said in an email.
Candidates agree that a large number of voters remain undecided on the question of who should take charge of the nation’s most populous state that, by itself, represents the world’s fourth-largest economy. There are more than 50 candidates on the ballot — including eight established Democrats and two leading Republicans.
Dominant Democrats contend with uncertainty
For the first time in a generation the governor’s contest is being defined by uncertainty, not inevitability — former Gov. Jerry Brown and outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom coasted through their elections. How do Democrats reassert their political clout and regain control of the race in a state where the party holds every statewide office, dominates the legislature and outnumbers registered Republicans by nearly 2-to-1?
“I have no idea and anybody who tells you they do, they don’t know either,” said veteran Democratic consultant Dan Newman, who is not involved in the race.
For Democrats, the party’s dicey chances in the June 2 primary stem from the state’s unpredictable “top two” primary system that puts all candidates on one ballot, with only the top two vote-getters advancing to November, regardless of party. The fear is the party’s 24 listed candidates will undercut each other and divide the Democratic vote into small fractions, clearing the way for the two leading Republicans — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both supporters of President Donald Trump — to advance.
While affordability is a top issue around the country, the race for governor has detoured into messy personal attacks and squabbles that have given the campaign a chaotic aura. A major televised debate was canceled after an uproar over the selection criteria that resulted in six white candidates qualifying for the stage while Black, Latino and Asian candidates were snubbed.
The University of Southern California, where the debate was to be held, said the dispute “created a significant distraction from the issues that matter to voters.” The school’s decision to cancel the event followed accusations of discrimination by candidates of color who were not invited.
The scratched debate came shortly after state Democratic Chair Rusty Hicks pleaded with lagging candidates to drop out of the race. Meanwhile, Rep. Eric Swalwell, one of the leading Democrats, accused Trump of trying to influence the contest after reporting that administration officials ordered FBI agents to gather documents about a decade-old investigation into the congressman’s ties to a suspected Chinese spy. The probe did not result in criminal charges.
Earlier this week, Bianco, after seizing more than half a million 2025 election ballots, said he paused a probe into election fraud allegations, citing mounting legal challenges from the state and a voting rights group.
A ripple effect down the ticket?
Elsewhere in the country, Democrats have been heartened by victories in a string of races — even on Trump’s home turf — that they see as promising signs ahead of this year’s midterm elections, when control of Congress will be in play. Democratic officials in California fear a vacancy at the top of the ticket in November could depress turnout in critical U.S. House races.
Such a scenario could “imperil Democrats’ chances to retake the House,” Hicks, the state Democratic chair, has warned.
The contest to succeed Newsom is playing out with Trump the ubiquitous foil for Democratic candidates — California is regarded as the home of the so-called Trump resistance. Simultaneously the state is beset with a long-running homeless crisis, commonplace seven-figure home prices and projected future budget shortfalls, while residents contend with some of the nation’s highest gas prices, taxes and utility bills.
Polling in early February by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found the field had broken into two distinct groups, with Bianco, Hilton and three Democrats — Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer — in close competition, with other candidates trailing.
The volatile race has recalled the surprise outcome in 1998 — the last wide-open race for governor — when underdog Democrat Gray Davis surged past two leading Democrats in the primary who relentlessly attacked each other, with Davis going on to win in November.
The rules have changed in the attention economy, where candidates must compete with digital platforms and content creators to connect with distracted voters.
“Normally people would be paying attention,” Newman said. “The whole campaign has been in slow motion.”