Will your tax refund actually be bigger this season?
Getting a refund when you file your taxes is a nice financial boost. This year, there are claims that tax refunds could be bigger than ever before.
President Donald Trump has said “this will be the ‘largest tax refund season of all time’ following the 2025 changes enacted via his ‘big beautiful bill,’” said CNBC. The White House in January released an estimate saying the “average refund could increase ‘by $1,000 or more,’” said CNBC. But will refunds actually be bigger — and if so, will yours be among those that are? Here is what to know.
What is the average tax refund for 2026?
The average tax refund this year is “higher by about $350, or nearly 11%, when compared to last year, according to the latest Internal Revenue Service data as of March 13,” said CNN. At its highest point so far this tax season, the average refund size “peaked at $3,804 on Feb. 20, an increase from $3,453 about one year prior,” before that average “gradually declined over the next two weeks,” said CNBC.
However, the deadline for tax filing is not until April 15, which means that the average could very well shift, though “refund sizes typically level off after late February,” said CNN, citing Erica York, the vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation.
How did the One Big Beautiful Bill Act impact tax refunds?
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law in July, introduced a number of changes that could affect how much money people get back this tax season. Alongside making permanent many provisions that were set to expire and would have increased many people’ s tax bills, the bill introduced four new tax deductions: deductions for tips, overtime pay, new car loan interest and seniors age 65 and up.
Additionally, “standard deductions have been adjusted for inflation twice for 2025,” said Experian — once as part of the “regular 2025 inflation adjustments” and then “again with the passage of the OBBBA.” At the same time, “tax brackets have been adjusted by about 3%” for 2025, a change that “can reduce the amount of tax you pay by taxing more of your income at lower rates,” said the outlet.
Lastly, “when the OBBBA was passed into law, the IRS did not update withholding tables,” which meant that “some taxpayers became eligible for additional deductions but were still paying more toward taxes with each paycheck,” said Yahoo Finance. As a result, those taxpayers may get more money back than usual.
What else affects the size of your tax refund?
While deductions, tax brackets and excess withholdings can all certainly influence the amount of your tax refund, they are not the only factors determining how much you get back, if anything. Other things that may have an impact include:
- Any changes in eligibility for tax credits
- A change in income, or the addition of side income
- Changes to your tax filing status
- The sale or purchase of a home
- Updates to your retirement account contributions
- Capital gains, interest or dividends from investing
So before you go betting on a bigger-than-ever tax refund this year, realize that the reality actually comes down to your specific financial and tax situation. If you are in luck, that could mean more money back from Uncle Sam.