Free Agent Profile: Austin Hays, LF

Austin Hays, LF

Position: LF B/T: R/R
Player Data: Age: 30 (07/05/1994)

2025 Traditional Stats: 103 G, 416 PA, .266/.315/.453/.768, 101 H, 16 2B, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 29 BB, 107 SO
2025 Advanced Stats: 105 WRC+, 25.7% K%, 7.0% BB%, .326 BABIP, .300 xwOBA, 1.2 fWAR, 0.8 WAR, 1 OAA, -2 DRS, 0 FRV

Rundown

Austin Hays entered the open market following a 2025 season that served as a partial rebound. After a borderline disastrous 2024 split between Baltimore and Philadelphia, Hays posted a 105 wRC+ in Cincinnati, indicating slightly above-average offensive production.

Availability, however, was the defining theme of his 2025 season. Recurring lower-leg injuries—primarily calf and hamstring issues that also plagued him in 2024—limited Hays to 103 games in 2025 after he played just 85 the year prior. That stop-and-start pattern has become the norm, preventing him from compiling the counting stats needed to be an everyday starter.

Even with the missed time, Hays remains an elite weapon against left-handed pitching. In 2025, he torched southpaws to the tune of a .319 average and an OPS north of .900. He can still carry an offense in those matchups, though he is best shielded from high-end right-handed sliders (a pitch he saw 31.6% of the time in 2025, by the way, a career high by more than four percentage points). For teams focused on matchup optimization, his bat still has significant value.

Advanced metrics from 2025 show a hitter actively adjusting to the aging curve. Hays posted a career-high 50.5% pull rate, well above his career average of roughly 44%. This indicates a conscious effort to generate power by selling out to the pull side, perhaps to compensate for any decline in bat speed. That adjustment helped him maintain a decent .187 ISO, but it also increased his exposure to breaking balls away, with his strikeout rate climbing to nearly 26% from 23.1% in 2024.

Defensively, Hays has transitioned almost exclusively to left field, where he profiles as roughly average. He no longer offers any meaningful positional versatility, but his arm is still a significant asset. Earlier in his career, he possessed one of the more valuable outfield arms in the league. That wasn’t the case in 2024 or 2025, but he still ranked in the 88th percentile in arm strength, so there’s no reason to believe that aspect of his game couldn’t bounce back.

Durability is the larger concern. His body has struggled to hold up, making him a risky bet for any club expecting full-season availability. Defensive metrics have long disagreed on his value: from 2020-22, DRS rated him at +4 or better each year, while OAA and FRV were less lenient. He graded out particularly well across all three in 2023, was terrible across the board in 2024, but was serviceable in 2025, finishing with -2 DRS, +1 OAA, and 0 FRV.

Contract

Lefty crushers always have a place on a roster, but they rarely command significant paydays. MLB Trade Rumors recently compared Hays to Rob Refsnyder, who just signed a one-year, $6.25 million deal with the Mariners. That figure likely represents the general range of Hays’ next contract. A two-year deal wouldn’t be surprising, though, especially if the annual value stays modest. A $5-8 million AAV feels realistic whether the contract runs one year or two.

Recommendation: Worth Checking In

When I first heard the Mets were interested in Hays, my immediate reaction was confusion. Another Darin Ruf scenario, I thought? And would he be blocking Carson Benge? Those were the first two things that came to mind.

After further analysis, I’d be comfortable signing him. On a one-year deal, he wouldn’t be a deterrent; rather, he’d be more of a safety net. Entering 2026, the Mets have clear vacancies in two of the three outfield spots alongside Juan Soto. Adding Hays would allow David Stearns to maintain flexibility with Benge while still addressing the need for another bat.

Signing Hays creates a “choose your own adventure” scenario for the rest of the offseason.

Option A: Hays/Benge platoon

The Mets add a primary center fielder such as Luis Robert Jr., allowing Benge to platoon with Hays in left field. In this setup, Hays can shield the rookie from tough left-handed starters early in the year, while Benge can gradually takes on the lion’s share of the reps against right-handed pitching.

Option B: Sign a star corner outfielder

The Mets sign a star left fielder like a Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. This would push Benge into a platoon with Tyrone Taylor in center field. In this look, Hays serves as a fourth outfielder and a specialized weapon off the bench.

Both options come with trade-offs. The first would be easier on the budget and allow Benge to ease into major league duties, but the team would be weaker on paper. The second would provide proven star power, yet it would place Benge at a position that prioritizes defense and likely force him into more playing time simply because Taylor is a weaker hitter than Hays.

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