The ‘Donroe’ Doctrine at Sea
The Skipper, the oil tanker fresh from filling up in a Venezuelan port, was seized by U.S. forces last week and is being taken to a U.S. port where its cargo — and possibly the ship itself — will be sold. President Trump appears to want Venezuela’s socialist dictator, Nicholas Maduro, to resign but Maduro says he isn’t going anywhere.
The deployment of CSAR aircraft indicates that the president is deadly serious about war with Venezuela.
It’s all part of Trump’s corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. For those just joining us, the Monroe Doctrine, born in the 19th Century from President Monroe’s policy, was to prevent foreign nations — principally Europeans — from colonizing the Western Hemisphere. The “Donroe Doctrine” is Trump’s idea that attempts to ensure that no power — China, Russia, Iran or others — can have major influence in our Hemisphere. Which brings us to Venezuela.
Venezuela is a socialist country allied to Russia and China as well as Cuba. Both Russia and China have provided financial assistance to Venezuela but it is so sunk in corruption that this aid is essentially unnoticed. Dictator Nicholas Maduro and his henchmen absorb whatever financial assistance may be given except for the monies that are used to keep Venezuela’s oil flowing.
Since September 2, U.S. forces have blown up more than 20 alleged drug smuggling boats and killed many — presumably all — of their crews. The September 2 strike is of particular import because, according to several news sources, a second strike was ordered when some of the crew survived the first.
To do so would at least be a violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice which prohibits the killing of former combatants, civilians and POWs. The situation would be entirely confused but for the fact that Special Operations Command boss Adm. Frank Bradley reportedly admitted ordering the second strike.
The president’s legal authority to strike the alleged drug boats is questionable. His authority to seize and bring to a U.S. port ships such as the Skipper is not.
The Skipper is a VLCC — a very large crude oil carrier which typically can carry about two million barrels of oil — and has a long, sordid record of thwarting U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil. It was reportedly not using its ship locater and falsely flying a Guyanese flag, both of which are violations of international maritime regulations. The ship reportedly has the ability to perform a ship-to-ship transfer of oil so that it can either transfer the oil to a Chinese ship or carry it directly to China.
The Skipper had been specifically sanctioned and its carrying of prohibited cargoes of Venezuelan and Iranian oil qualified it for seizure under U.S. law. Trump said we would keep its cargo of oil.
We may be dissuading other crude oil ships from going to Venezuela for a time. But for how long will we be willing to seize those ships and what will we do with them after we’ve seized them? The ships could be sold to legitimate oil traders but would soon create a glut on the market.
Meanwhile, Maduro has accused us of piracy. So far, the president’s pressure on Maduro has not had much effect.
Our latest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, has been in the waters off Venezuela since November. We have built up both naval and Air Force assets in places such as the Roosevelt Roads base in Puerto Rico. So far, reports indicate that we have KC-135 and KC-46 tanker aircraft, E/A-18G Growler aircraft (designed to interfere with enemy electronic transmission and such) as well as F-35s to that base. The president has also deployed combat search and rescue (CSAR) aircraft.
But what is it all in aid of? President Trump came to office in his first term promising to end our “endless wars.” But he has indicated that we may be commencing ground operations in Venezuela very soon. Perhaps he has in mind a “splendid little war” with Venezuela which could oust Maduro in a few weeks. But no war plan survives first contact with the enemy. And in this case the enemy includes both our allies, enemies, and the media which would castigate Trump as an aggressor and war monger.
If Trump wants to start a war with Venezuela, he could do so for 60 days without violating the War Powers Act which, as I pointed out last week, is of questionable constitutionality and was passed over President Nixon’s veto. After that, he would have to seek either a declaration of war against Venezuela or an Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) which, so far, he hasn’t done. Or he could take yet another case to the Supreme Court challenging the War Powers Act which he might not win.
Any war with Venezuela would break the bond of trust between the military and the president. That trust — spend my life if you must — is based on the concept of a vital national security interest without a threat to which no president should start a war.
Iran and China are trading with ships going between their ports and Venezuela and China. Russia and China are Maduro’s closest allies, but they show no sign of willingness to defend Venezuela with financial or military aid.
Maduro may be content to wait us out. He knows, as do all the world’s leaders, that Trump doesn’t usually follow through on the threats he makes. But this threat is different because Trump is apparently positioning our forces to take on Venezuela’s defenses.
The deployment of CSAR aircraft indicates that the president is deadly serious about war with Venezuela.
In the times of the Monroe Doctrine, our nation was united in its pursuit. The “Donroe Doctrine” has no such unity to rely on. If, as it seems, the president wants a war with Venezuela, he needs to explain why it is in our vital national security interest to do so. At this point, that seems entirely doubtful.
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