Phillies’ likeliest NLDS opponent is the next on their schedule

Steaming toward a bye in the wild-card round of the playoffs, the Phillies’ likeliest first October opponent is the next on their schedule: the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Phils begin the week firmly occupying the National League’s No. 2 seed, 4.5-games ahead of the Dodgers, a lead that will be difficult to relinquish and highly improbable unless they’re swept.

The top seed is also still a possibility but the Phillies trail the Brewers by two games (three because of the tiebreaker) with 12 to play.

So … what to make of the team the Phillies face next, which could very well be the same one coming into Citizens Bank Park for Game 1 of the NLDS on October 4?

Headed in different directions

It’s been quite a while since the 2025 Dodgers were at their best. The Phillies were a half-game behind them after play on Aug. 9 and since that time have gone 22-12 while LA has been 16-16, largely because of a slumping and banged-up offense.

An important part of the Dodgers’ success through Aug. 1 was the two-way play of catcher Will Smith, who spent a bulk of the first four months leading the NL in batting average and/or on-base percentage. After several years of fast starts and slow finishes, the Dodgers built more off-days into his first-half schedule and it seemed to work until a brutal month of August. Smith then caught a foul ball to the right hand while behind the plate on Sept. 3 and was finally placed on the injured list Saturday. The Dodgers have acknowledged he will have to play through the hand injury the rest of the way, which could suppress one of their biggest offensive threats.

Third baseman Max Muncy has been on and off the IL this season and cannot catch a break. He returned again last Monday, was hit by a pitch on the wrist that forced his exit Friday, returned Saturday, was hit in the head and missed Sunday.

Shohei Ohtani is always extremely dangerous, though, and a few key hitters may have woken up during the weekend in San Francisco when the Dodgers scored 23 runs Saturday and Sunday.

Freddie Freeman, batting .196 from the final series of August through the weekend, had six hits. Teoscar Hernandez, unplayable for months and essentially the Dodgers’ version of Nick Castellanos, exploded by going 7-for-11. Hernandez is so important for them now without Smith in the cleanup spot.

The Dodgers’ hottest hitter at the moment was their coldest star for most of the season, Mookie Betts, who needed to hit .340 over more than a month to raise his OPS above .730.

The who’s hot/who’s not component of LA’s offense could certainly change over the next three weeks but that’s the composition of the top half of their lineup at the moment.

Difficult lefty matchups

From a starting pitching perspective, it does look like the Dodgers will finally be healthy heading into October. If the Phillies draw them in the NLDS, they’d likely face some combination of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow in the first three games, with Ohtani and Clayton Kershaw possibilities as well.

Phillies hitters have done very little historically against Snell, batting .175 with three home runs and 32 strikeouts in 80 at-bats.

Yamamoto didn’t allow an earned run over six innings at CBP on April 4. Bryce Harper was peppered with questions about Yamamoto from Japanese reporters after that game and was coy about giving much away, likely knowing he’d see him again at a more important time.

Yamamoto has become the Dodgers’ ace and will almost certainly start Game 1 of their wild-card series. No matter who starts Game 1 of the wild-card round for the Dodgers would be starting on short rest in Game 1 of the NLDS, so if it’s Yamamoto to begin the wild-card round it will likely be Snell to begin the NLDS.

As for Glasnow, he walked five and allowed five runs in just two innings the last time he toed the slab at Citizens Bank Park. He can be a tough customer on any given night.

Then there’s Ohtani, who will face the Phils at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday. The Phillies have never faced Ohtani the pitcher. It can only help their hitters to see him up close this week in case they face him next month. Ohtani has allowed one or no runs in nine of his 12 starts this season and has a 3.75 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 36 innings.

Best-laid bullpen plans

In the bullpen, the Dodgers added so many arms to protect against injury and it still hasn’t worked. Closer Tanner Scott, who allowed a walk-off grand slam on Friday, has a 5.01 ERA. Veterans Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates haven’t been nearly as reliable as they were a season ago. Michael Kopech has barely been available. Dave Roberts’ most trusted reliever come playoff time might be lefty Alex Vesia.

Aligning the staff

It will hurt for Rob Thomson and the Phillies not to be able to send Zack Wheeler out for the first start of their 2025 playoff run, their foremost built-in advantage over any team the last four years. Cristopher Sánchez has been excellent at containing his nerves since breaking out in the summer of 2023 but walking out to the mound for Game 1 of the NLDS will be a different level of intensity.

Sánchez beat the Dodgers twice last season and allowed four runs over 5 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts against them this season. He’s never been intimidated by their superstars.

Ranger Suárez, who could start Game 2, has had a lot of trouble with Betts and Freeman (9-for-22 combined with three doubles and two homers).

Aaron Nola, meanwhile, has handled every hitter in the Dodgers’ lineup except Betts. Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Smith, Hernandez and Andy Pages have hit a combined .195 against him in 149 at-bats, though Nola obviously has not been the same guy in 2025. He made a pivotal step in the right direction last Monday with six scoreless innings to beat the Mets but then took another step back Sunday against the Royals.

It looked for months like Sept. 15-17 at Dodger Stadium would determine NL playoff seeding. The Phillies have played so well lately that it’s not nearly as crucial from that perspective, though it’s still a very real playoff preview and these late-season head-to-head matchups — as we saw a year ago with the Phils and Mets — can provide meaningful glimpses of what to expect.