Georgia GOP fears bruising primary in race to unseat Ossoff

Republicans are bracing for what could be another brutal primary as they look to unseat Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) next year.

Former football coach Derek Dooley and Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Mike Collins (R-Ga.) have all launched bids for the Republican nod to take on Ossoff. Not long after Dooley — who’s seen as Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R) preferred candidate — entered the race, the two congressmen quickly trained their fire on the political outsider.

The early friction underscores the tall task ahead of Republicans: avoiding a messy primary that leaves the nominee bruised and battered heading into the general election, while also dodging a major clash between Kemp and President Trump, who has yet to weigh in on his preferred candidate. 

“As Republican strategists, we're always concerned that we're better at eating our own than winning in November,” said Heath Garrett, a friend of Dooley’s since law school who is not involved in the campaign, “and so, we also have to balance that with the reality that voters want a choice.”

“But can we mitigate the collateral damage so that we can all still win in November?” Garrett added. 

Dooley, whose father is former University of Georgia football coach and Georgia icon Vince Dooley, became the latest entry in the Republican contest to take on Ossoff when he launched his campaign for Senate earlier this month. 

The younger Dooley has leaned hard into his own football background, best known for his time coaching at University of Tennessee, while touting himself as a political outsider. More importantly, he’s seen as Kemp’s preferred pick in the race after the governor declined an opportunity to run himself despite much courting from his party.

A source close to the campaign told The Hill that Dooley has visited at least 16 counties since his launch, saying there was a “really, really positive response to him entering the race.”

Carter so far has a financial edge in the race with more cash on hand than Collins, who’s been in the race for several weeks. Carter has loaned himself $2 million so far, though observers are watching to see how much money he ultimately pours into his bid.

Carter’s campaign has sought to align itself with the president, with a campaign spokesperson asserting that the congressman “has stood with Trump from Day One.”

“Georgians know the difference between a fighter who stands with Trump versus a product of the same establishment machine that tried to stop him,” the spokesperson said.

Collins, who has also sought to align himself with Trump, has started to establish himself as a serious candidate several weeks after launching his bid, including by organizing a 159-county operation across the state and racking up endorsements from even some of Kemp’s allies.

By comparison, the Georgia GOP is formally organized in only 142 counties. 

“To get organized in all 159 counties in two weeks is relatively unheard of in Georgia,” said one Georgia Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly.

“I think there's probably some prevailing thought in D.C., like, ‘Oh, it's a congressman, like, how much widespread support can he really have, right, across the state?’” the strategist said. “But Mike has clearly built an infrastructure very quickly.”

The next marker observers will be watching for is third-quarter fundraising reports, which will highlight how serious all three candidates are.

All three men are also vying for the coveted Trump endorsement. A source close to Carter said the Savannah-area congressman met with the White House about the race; a source close to the Collins campaign said Collins has talked to Trump about his Senate bid. Dooley has also visited the White House.

Just hours into Dooley’s entry, the tenor of the race quickly turned negative, with Carter and Collins attacking the former football coach.

“I will tell you this, and we're all proud of our dads, and I'm sure both my opponents are proud of their dads as well. But at the same time, we better take this serious,” Carter said while speaking to Henry County Republicans earlier this month, a thinly veiled shot at Dooley.

“You got to have somebody who can go toe-to-toe with this kid, and I'm that person who can go toe-to-toe with him,” he added, referring to Ossoff.

Meanwhile, Collins’s campaign has taken to mocking Dooley, such as when the former football coach posted that “In coaching, we have a saying, ‘Your film is your resume.’”

“‘Your film is your resume.’ So true, Coach!” replied Collins’s campaign, posting a clip of Louisiana State University defeating the University of Tennessee, where Dooley formerly coached, 16-14 in a 2010 SEC game.

In Dooley's first interview since launching his Senate bid, conservative radio show host and former Kemp aide Martha Zoller noted he had only been in the race for about a week.

“It doesn't feel that way,” Dooley chimed in, “because there's never — there's never been a candidate who's not a candidate, and never been in politics, get attacked more in a three-week span.”

Georgia Republicans are no strangers to messy primaries, including in 2020, when then-Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.) challenged then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) for the Republican Senate nomination. The two traded barbs and negative attack ads, with Loeffler ultimately beating Collins by 6 points. But she was later defeated in the runoff against then-Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock.

“There are a lot of concerns, particularly after going through 2020, 2021, in the Senate race there and the runoff and the Kelly Loeffler situation — there are a lot of concerns by a lot of Republicans about that,” said conservative radio show host Erick Erickson, referring to concerns about a messy primary.

“But also it's notable Collins and Carter firing so hard at Dooley right now, who's got low name ID, because I do think they realize he can be a competitive threat,” he added.

Republicans are equally — if not more — eager to avoid a clash between Kemp and the president, who have had a complicated relationship ever since the Georgia governor flouted Trump’s ask to overturn the 2020 election results in his state.

Several reports last month indicated Trump’s and Kemp’s orbits were at odds yet again, particularly over Kemp’s reported push for Dooley.

A GOP operative confirmed to The Hill that there had been a sense of “annoyance” between Trump’s and Kemp’s camps over how to handle the race, but there have been efforts to smooth things over.

“Both sides recognize it’s best if they’re on the same side in the end,” the operative said. “I think it’s still TBD where that ends up.”

A GOP source familiar with the matter also told The Hill “there have been successful efforts to lower” the temperature.

Still, there’s a split between some members of the party over who should take the lead on the search to find the best consensus candidate.

“Kemp knows how to win statewide. Last time they picked a candidate, Herschel Walker didn’t do so well,” one Senate GOP member said, referring to the dynamic with the White House and noting that members still remember the debacle that led to wins by Ossoff and Warnock in January 2021. “His instincts are not necessarily the best. Kemp’s are, and they need to get over the chemistry issue.”

Meanwhile, others are eager to see the White House gets involved.

“I think most people here are still holding out hope that the White House steps in before the end of the year. Now is that wishful thinking? Maybe,” the Georgia Republican strategist said, adding that he wasn’t concerned yet about a messy primary. 

But “every day that goes by is another day that Ossoff is untouched, is raising more money and … is padding his cash advantage over our nominee.”