Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' faces crucial hours as Johnson courts Freedom Caucus

The marquee event in the run-up to potentially passing the so-called "big, beautiful bill" began at 3 p.m. ET as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and members of the Freedom Caucus headed to the White House to meet with President Donald Trump.

The White House is really amping up the pressure now on the Freedom Caucus. A White House statement says "The Administration strongly supports passage of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act." It adds that "President Trump is committed to keeping his promises, and failure to pass this bill would be the ultimate betrayal. If H.R. 1 were presented to the President, he would sign it into law."

Fox is told that the House GOP brass would like to pass the bill "today." There is an increasing scenario that "today" means very late tonight, overnight, or the early hours of tomorrow morning. They are banking on the idea that pressure from the president will force the Freedom Caucus to vote "yes." They also need to provide a fig leaf for the Freedom Caucus so they can exit these negotiations with a "win."

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The Freedom Caucus is upset that the SALT Caucus achieved a victory with an increase in the deduction for state and local taxes. So the Freedom Caucus is asking, "where is our deal?"

We expect House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to parachute a "manager’s amendment" or two into the bill at the end. This would be introduced before the House Rules Committee and made a part of the bill. The manager’s amendment is essentially the final change to the bill. The key is to make sure that it sweetens the measure in a way that it drags the final outstanding votes across the finish line.

Here’s the dynamic: House GOP leaders are worried about losing members from an attendance perspective tomorrow. So they feel it’s best to move sooner rather than later. Also, there’s the potential of losing votes the longer this sits open. So Republican leaders want to lock this down as soon as possible. That’s why an overnight/early morning scenario is very much in play right now.

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Here are the concrete steps which must happen to pass the bill:

– Johnson introduces his manager’s amendment to tweak the bill and court reluctant Republicans to vote yes.

– The Rules Committee incorporates that amendment into the bill.

– The Rules Committee votes on the overall "rule" which sends the "new" version of the bill – with the changes via the manager’s amendment to the floor.

– The House debates the "rule" to set the table for the actual debate.

– The House must adopt the "rule" in order to put the bill on the floor. If the Rules Committee fails to send the rule to the floor or if the GOP stumbles in its effort to get it out of the Rules Committee, they’re stuck. So these two procedural steps are crucial.

– The House then debates the bill on the floor, based on the ground rules approved earlier by the rule.

– Then the House goes to final passage.

Those are a lot of steps. But things can move very fast when they get these things in place in the House. That’s why Republican leaders want the pressure of the president to force the issue in the next 12 to 24 hours.

That said, there is a distinct possibility of this unfolding overnight or in the wee hours of the morning on Thursday.

There is also a possibility that this stalls, and we are staring at a Thursday night/wee hours of Friday scenario, too.