Ongoing Uncertainty Sees CFOs Embracing ‘Chess Master’ Planning Role

In today’s challenging operating environment, the role of the finance department is evolving from managing the books to shaping the future.

Few periods have tested the finance function’s strategic mettle like the current landscape.

While the role of the chief financial officer (CFO) has been transformed significantly over the past decade, CFOs today must deal with ongoing economic uncertainty due to trade wars and cross-border dynamism, while navigating complex global supply chains, digital transformation and market unpredictability.

This requires CFOs today to be dynamic thinkers, constantly evaluating a range of possible future scenarios and preparing their organizations for multiple outcomes, drawing from real-time data and solutions for insights.

The modern CFO is deeply embedded in business strategy, playing a crucial role in scenario planning, risk management and capital allocation.

As PYMNTS Intelligence data in the March 2025 Certainty Project reveals, escalating trade tensions marked by the recent imposition of tariffs have introduced a wave of uncertainty across various sectors, notably impacting mid-sized companies. These firms, often operating with intricate global supply chains, now face challenges that demand strategic recalibrations to maintain operational resilience.

The most successful leaders may end up being those who can think multiple moves ahead akin to chess masters, anticipating challenges before they arise and turning uncertainty into opportunity.

See also: What Treasurers Can Learn From How Central Banks Approach Risk

The Uncertainty Landscape’s Impact on Business Operations

CFOs are being forced to think not just as financial stewards, but as strategic visionaries, navigating intricate scenarios and actively shaping the competitive futures of their organizations.

At the heart of this new strategic posture is a single compelling driver: uncertainty. Economic volatility, geopolitical instability, technological disruption and regulatory flux have created an environment in which predictability is rare. CFOs, traditionally tasked with financial stewardship and reporting, now find themselves at the strategic nexus, required to foresee multiple moves ahead, much like a chess grandmaster contending with the variable moves of an opponent

PYMNTS Intelligence data indicates that 60% of middle-market CFOs anticipate that tariffs will exacerbate economic unpredictability and complicate planning processes. This sentiment intensifies among firms already experiencing high uncertainty, with 77% expressing heightened concerns. The apprehension is not confined to the goods sector; service-oriented companies also foresee indirect repercussions, as increased prices on goods could reduce consumer spending on services.

The current environment necessitates a proactive approach to compliance. CFOs are now integral to strategic decision-making, focusing on cost management, supply chain resilience and regulatory adherence. Leveraging technologies like automation and artificial intelligence(AI)  can enhance compliance efforts, ensuring that firms remain agile amidst policy shifts.

Crucially, there is a correlation between preparedness and confidence; 58% of firms with contingency plans express strong confidence in navigating supply chain disruptions, compared to lower confidence levels among less-prepared companies.

Read more: Tariffs and Business Uncertainty: The Current State of Play

The Role of Digital Transformation in Driving Certainty

In response to the evolving trade landscape, businesses are increasingly turning to digital procurement solutions, automated payables and receivables and AI-powered financial dashboards.

These next-generation platforms can offer advantages relative to legacy methods such as automated supplier matching and real-time contract management. However, the shift to digital also heightens the need for robust Know Your Business (KYB) protocols to verify supplier legitimacy and mitigate fraud risks.

But integrating these digital innovations is not as simple as flipping a switch.

“Lack of operating procedures when it comes to AI, particularly GenAI, is like putting a speed bump on a highway,” Jeff Stangle, director of product (AI and platform) at Coupa, told PYMNTS. “Your framework needs to be practical. You don’t want to miss things. You don’t want things to fall through the cracks.”

PYMNTS Intelligence’s CAIO Report, encompassing 60 chief financial officers from U.S. firms with annual revenues exceeding $1 billion, showed that CFOs are embracing AI-powered financial modeling, risk management and forecasting tools, but they’re doing it on their own terms and with their own data.

Many are turning to alternative financing, including the use of virtual cards and supply chain financing, to keep their business engines running smoothly.

Findings from the “2024-2025 Growth Corporates Working Capital Index: Industry Factbook,” a PYMNTS Intelligence and Visa collaboration, revealed several trends redefining working capital management across industries that range from agriculture to media and technology.

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