REPORT: Texas could eclipse California as most populous state by 2045
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Move over, California: New findings from Realtor.com anticipate the Lone Star State will become the most populous in the country come 2045.
The prediction comes as part of Realtor.com's 2025 Texas State of Real Estate report. As of 2024, California led with 39.2 million residents, with Texas coming in second with 30.9 million residents and Florida rounding out the top three with 23 million.
However, the report found Texas shattered the competition and led as the state with the most population growth between 2014 and 2024, with 3.9 million new residents calling Texas home during that timeframe. Within the same 10-year period, Florida added 2.9 million residents and North Carolina welcomed approximately 962,200 new ones; by contrast, California ranked sixth and added around 803,700 new residents.
The real estate company's estimations expect Texas to reach nearly 42 million residents by 2045.
And the Texas-California competition continues, as the vast majority of new residents moving to Texas are coming from California. Between 2009 and 2023, the report found more than 781,000 Californians left the west coast for Texas; Florida ranked second with an exodus of nearly 495,000 people to the Lone Star State, and Oklahoma ranked third with over 476,000 people crossing the border into Texas.
Other popular states new Texas residents originated from included east coast ones like New Jersey and New York, Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest and Louisiana, Alabama and South Carolina within the south. The report's findings revealed more than one out of every four people shopping for homes in Texas were from out of state.
When reviewing the same 2009-2023 time period, more than half of Californians relocating to Texas (56%) were searching for cheaper housing. Other popular responses included a change of climate (37%), a new job or job transfer (36%), a desire to own a home and not rent (31%) and 10% included those seeking work or who had lost a job.
On the housing affordability front, the report found the state led in its affordable homebuilding efforts, but elevated housing costs still contributed to affordability issues. More than half (51%) of Texans make less than $75,000 annually, but only 16% of housing inventory for sale on the market was affordable for that salary threshold, Realtor.com found.
"While cheaper housing has certainly been a boon to both households and businesses in Texas, the competitive advantage is at risk of waning because of rising prices and rents," the report noted.
Other risk factors that could impact Texas' growth longevity included climate concerns, with almost half of homes in Texas found to be at "severe or extreme risk" of hurricane wind damage and almost 90% of homes in the state are subjected to severe or extreme heat.
Read the full report online.