Follow Up To 2024 Presidential Prediction…
By Ron Signore
Friday, I gave my final prediction that Kamala Harris will become Madam President after the conclusion of this election. I did leave some grey area on the final tabulations, because the reality of how close this election should and could be, makes it like the “game of inches” speech from Any Given Sunday. Conceptually, one inch too far or too short, you don’t quite get the outcome you desired. But my gut spoke to me to believe the inches were adding up for the hopeful Harris victory. Where the inches fall is the difference between a win and a landslide in the electoral college.
It was also noted that should anything crazy between then and tomorrow happen, with the notion it could change that outlook, that I would put out my thoughts for all. Something crazy, in a sense, did happen, along with other continued nonsense that really was just par for the course, that made me want to affirm my belief from Friday to an extent.
The polls have continually showed a race tighter than squeezing 2 pounds of bologna into a 1-pound bag. However, I also mentioned the use of herd polling, and a likely fear of being the outlier out there in polling, essentially taking the safe route on predicting the election. Until the gold standard of pollsters in Ann Selzer released her findings in her polling methodology with the state of Iowa. She has been as close to dead on, if not right on the money, in her polling during elections. She released her final poll for the election using the Iowa data emphasizing the claim that Harris leads trump by 3 points, 47-44 respectively.
As much as I am not into polls, or trusting, it does bring faith when we consider trends on behalf of Harris. What specifically draws me to hope when this poll gets considered is Selzer’s methodology on polling, which she considers forward polling. She isn’t trying to capture what happened in 2020, 2016, etc… she is looking for specifically 2024. She considers the norm when we consider polls we see broadcast by the media as backward polling because of the effort of collected data that has some foundational importance to the previous election, and maybe where their polling missed last time. This is always an effort to make sure they are not that far of an outlier as the contest rolls around.
Iowa used to be a swing state, or battleground state. As of late, it has donned the RED designation without concern. This analysis puts Iowa, a state in which that was considered a lock for the right, in play. Then you match that with other accounts of what is happening during the last few weeks with early voting and conceptually why people are voting, and you get a more favorable BLUE outlook.
Stories like tighter races in North Carolina, Kansas, Texas, and Florida along side the already key swing/battleground states give an optimism that even if close, very little is a guarantee for Bunker Boy. Stories like Florida and Texas denying the DOJ to send people in to help with overseeing voting rights in the state leads me to believe they know there is something to hide. The Cheeto Campaign already filing lawsuits against Bucks County, PA over a voting concern of ballots being returned for improperly being done yet allowing people to rectify on election day. I am not a constitutional lawyer federally or by state, but it was my understanding that if something like that happens, those individuals need to show up at the polls with enough identification and knowledge to support why they are able to cast a vote. I would also venture to guess, additionally, this may be how people have to proceed in the cases where ballots were destroyed by setting fire to the ballot boxes in Oregon, Washington, and any other state that experienced this domestic terrorism.
While I believe these types of things, lawsuits, are just further foundation for a knowing loser to stall results of what I feel is inevitable, I do not disagree with investigating anything to make sure all is on the up and up. With that said, I also believe that the stem of this lawsuit is a way to actually confirm elections are not rigged. Identifying anything as the process goes on that may warrant a looksee is fine with me…to an extent. In this case, while I appreciate eyes on the process, it really does come back to my mind as there is clarity from whatever polls the Garbage Campaign that identifies him being down, triggering his actions to continue running on a platform of rigged elections.
There was one other thing I saw over the weekend that adds to some logical comfort. Logic would tell me that Chump lost supporters naturally from death, disdain for J6, and other extreme agendas on his platform. I had always felt that was going to be the case in this election. However, this weekend continued another trend of video evidence of smaller crowds at his rallies with evidence of people leaving early while the dope was still rambling on about whatever nonsense he was throwing out there. I have never thought rally crowd size was such a big topic, and likely if it wasn’t DonOLD Dump, no one would focus on that. But the enthusiasm momentum clearly lies with the left. She is packing venues with excited supporters. She is doing that without pretending to deep throat a microphone, either.
If all of these things mean what I interpret them to mean, then I can truly believe this will end up being a landslide victory for Harris. She will dominate the popular vote, which in the grand scheme of things does not really matter as far as winning is concerned. However, if turnout matched with early voting data continues, then the quantities should put Harris in the positive in most critical places. When we look at the battleground states, she should win WI, MI, and PA which would be all that matters. But, that trend may be present in those previously mentioned states in Kansas, Texas, and Florida that were previously identified as RED strongholds. Even if they do not turn blue overall, it’s a reality that trends show less support for Diaper Donny.
I feel really good with saying I believe she will win 377 to his 161 electoral votes. Let’s ride the blue wave to the White House and block out any possibility of red deeds that slow that down!
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