ACC Preview #16 - Duke, Part III: The Returnees
Duke lost a lot but two quality guards return.
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Duke suffered heavy losses last spring as nearly everyone either entered the NBA Draft (Jared McCain and Kyle Filipowski) or transferred (Jaylen Blakes, Jeremy Roach, TJ Power, Sean Stewart, Jaden Schutt, Christian Reeves and Mark Mitchell). Only Ryan Young used up his eligibility.
In years past, that would have been a red flag for any program, but it happens a lot today. And while it’s jarring, it’s not that big of a deal. You can replace them in the portal and, in the more traditional way, with recruits.
Duke does return five players: Spencer Hubbard (5-8 senior) is back, as are 7-0 senior Stanley Borden and 6-9 grad student Neil Begovich. None of them are going to have a major impact on the game, but as Justin Robinson demonstrated, a walk-on or lightly used player can still have a profound impact on a group. At a minimum, they know what to do in practice and can instruct their new teammates accordingly. They can also transmit the values of the program.
The other two returnees are likely to start: 6-5 junior Tyrese Proctor and 6-5 sophomore Caleb Foster.
Proctor is an excellent and dogged defender. His offense was erratic at times, especially his perimeter shot. Proctor hit 35.2 percent of his threes, which is not wretched but not ideal. He did get into some good runs offensively, but so far, it hasn’t been his strength. He shot 42.3 percent overall.
He did average 3.7 assists per game and 3.0 boards and his defense, as noted, was quite solid. People criticize his shooting a lot, but that’s fixable. Proctor works on defense. Blakes was the best defender Duke had last year, but Proctor wasn’t bad at all. He’s really dogged on that end. If he can be a more consistent shooter, he’s going to be a major problem. By the way, he looks notably stronger than he has before. That’ll help.
Foster went out for the season after the Wake Forest game on February 24th with an ankle injury. He was a fairly typical freshman in many ways: he lit up Michigan State for 18 in his third game, shooting 7-8 and 4-5 from behind the line.
The game prior, against Arizona, he didn’t score and he didn't hit double figures again until Duke’s loss at Georgia Tech about two weeks later. At times he wasn’t very productive offensively but that’s fairly typical for freshmen.
He had a better campaign from behind the line than did Proctor, shooting 40.6 percent there, and overall he was slightly better at 43.7 percent to Proctor’s 42.3 percent.
He averaged 2.1 apg and 2.4 boards and a respectable 1.1 turnovers to Proctor’s 1.3, although in fairness, Proctor played more minutes (30.4 to 25.4) and had the ball in his hands a lot more than Foster did.
Still, Foster’s instincts were good and Jon Scheyer clearly trusted him to make good decisions.
Our criticism of Foster, if you want to call it that, is that he was probably too conservative. We saw Proctor do some daring things, particularly when he drove. CFOS, as he likes to call himself on the Brotherhood Podcast, didn’t penetrate as much as we thought he would and that’s an area where we think he can improve.
Like a lot of freshman, he was learning an enormous amount and being risk-averse in that environment is probably smart, at least until you establish a role. Certainly he didn’t do any glaringly foolish things.
As a sophomore, we’d expect him to be much more comfortable and productive. Hosting the podcast has pushed what seems to be a quiet young man out of his comfort zone in a good way and he’s really grown as a host. We’d expect a similar process on the court too.
Duke is in a good situation with both Foster and Proctor overall. The Blue Devils won’t be as dependent on them for three point shooting as they were last year, when really only Roach was a consistent threat from behind the line. Proctor or Foster might heat up. Filipowski could too. A random guy might get hot and hit a couple - Mitchell maybe, after his epic slump early in the season.
Both guys are willing defenders and they should be improved offensively, with Foster possibly making a bigger leap.
As noted, they’re both almost certain to start at least at the beginning of the season. If either one falters or is injured though, well, Duke has options...lots of options, actually. And we’ll get to those in Part IV.