Add news
News Every Day |

Here's how Jerome Powell could surprise markets with his Jackson Hole speech

  • Goldman Sachs says Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday could deliver some surprises.
  • It wouldn't be the first time he used the event as an opportunity to reset investors' expectations.
  • Markets are eyeing rate cuts of 100 basis points between now and the end of the year.

All eyes are on Jerome Powell's speech at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, and Goldman Sachs says the central bank's chairman could still surprise investors despite their confidence in the Fed's path for the rest of the year.

It wouldn't be the first time Powell used his Jackson Hole speech as an opportunity to reset the market's expectations.

In 2022, when inflation was hitting a 40-year high, Powell delivered a short but direct eight-minute speech that reinforced the Fed's path to raising interest rates to combat inflation even though the stock market was in the middle of a painful bear market.

Bond yields surged, and the S&P 500 lost nearly 8% in the week after Powell's hawkish Jackson Hole speech.

But with inflation almost under control and the labor market showing signs of deterioration, Powell could strike a much different tone on Friday.

And according to Goldman Sachs, there are a few ways the Fed boss could catch markets off guard.

"Possible dovish surprises could include a more concerned take on the labor market or any suggestion that the high level of the fed funds rate is inappropriate in light of the progress made on inflation," David Mericle, a Goldman economist, said in a note on Tuesday.

Such an event would likely be bullish for the stock market, as it would reinforce the idea that the Fed will start to cut interest rates at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September and that the bar for a cut of more than 25 basis points or a string of consecutive cuts is lower than most expect.

The CME FedWatch tool suggests investors see 100 basis points of rate cuts through the rest of this year.

On the other hand, Powell could shock markets to the downside if he adopts a more hawkish tone than investors expect.

"A possible hawkish surprise might be highlighting instead that broad financial conditions are still quite easy, which could imply that the high level of the funds rate, while perhaps unnecessary, is not an urgent problem," Mericle said.

Mericle ultimately expects Powell to be more dovish in his Jackson Hole speech, given the weak July jobs report and recent data that indicates inflation is falling closer to the Fed's long-term target of 2%.

The recent downward revision to employment growth of 818,000 jobs also doesn't help the Fed's case for remaining hawkish.

"This might mean expressing a bit more confidence in the inflation outlook and putting a bit more emphasis on downside risks in the labor market," the note said. "Powell might also reiterate that the FOMC is watching the labor market data carefully and is well positioned to support the economy if necessary."

Goldman Sachs also gave a rundown of Powell's Jackson Hole speeches and their impact on Treasury yields since he became the Fed chairman in 2018.

Read the original article on Business Insider
Реклама
The most beautiful beach towns with cheap living

A huge number of people around the world dream of one day breaking out of the daily routine

The Ashton Jeanty Bears Smoke Just Got Even Thicker

Wall Street gets rude shock as Bessent plays second fiddle on tariffs

Creating and sharing deepfakes through tools such as OpenAI is now a crime in New Jersey—punishable by up to 5 years in prison

UFC on ESPN 65 video: Rhys McKee blows up Daniel Frunza's face for doctor's stoppage TKO

Ria.city
Реклама
  • ИП Попов А.П.
  • ИНН: 602715631406
Ревматолог: "6 апреля 2024 в г.Вашингтон запущена квота"

Каждый человек с больными суставами имеет право получить...






Реклама
  • ИП Попов А.П.
  • ИНН: 602715631406
Ревматолог: "6 апреля 2024 в г.Вашингтон запущена квота"

Каждый человек с больными суставами имеет право получить...


Реклама
  • ИП Попов А.П.
  • ИНН: 602715631406
Ревматолог: "6 апреля 2024 в г.Вашингтон запущена квота"

Каждый человек с больными суставами имеет право получить...

Read also

Quetta braces for BNP long march as impasse persists

F1 legend Michael Schumacher becomes granddad for the first time

Is the president no longer homesick?

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on Today24.pro

News Every Day

Creating and sharing deepfakes through tools such as OpenAI is now a crime in New Jersey—punishable by up to 5 years in prison

Today24.pro — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here


News Every Day

Wall Street gets rude shock as Bessent plays second fiddle on tariffs



Sports today


Новости тенниса
Надежда Петрова

Петрова презентует книгу «Теннис. Методические рекомендации» 5 апреля в Москве



Спорт в России и мире
Москва

Гол Соболева помог "Зениту" избежать поражения в матче РПЛ против "Локомотива"



All sports news today





Sports in Russia today

Москва

Охрану общественного порядка и безопасность на хоккейном матче в Москве обеспечила Росгвардия


Новости России

Game News

Atomfall surpasses 1.5 million players to become Rebellion's most successful game launch in 32 years


Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this

Реклама
The most beautiful beach towns with cheap living

A huge number of people around the world dream of one day breaking out of the daily routine

Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this

Russian.city

Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this


Москва

Водителей предупредили о сильном снегопаде на трассе под Тулой


Губернаторы России
Владимир Жириновский

Отвергнутый, ушедший и наследница. Что известно о детях Жириновского


Иван Панферов и Алла Сидорова выиграли забег «Апрель»

Синоптик Ильин: Москву занесло снегом в апреле из-за встречи двух циклонов

Ведущие ГПМ Радио – Санкт-Петербург станут чтецами «Тотального диктанта»

Московский Экономический Форум: главное


Студенты музыкального колледжа Шопена из Иркутска дали концерт в Китае

VK Fest 2025: Баста, L'One и BLIZKEY рассказали что происходит за кулисами фестиваля

Певец Буйнов рассказал историю про очки на интимном месте

Рок-группа Linkin Park подала заявку в Роспатент на регистрацию нового логотипа


Петрова презентует книгу «Теннис. Методические рекомендации» 5 апреля в Москве

Александр Зверев назвал отсутствие отдыха после AO-2025 причиной своего спада

Александрова вышла в полуфинал турнира WTA в Чарльстоне

Хьюстон (ATP). 1/4 финала. Бруксби сыграет с Ковачевичем, Юбенкс встретится с Накашимой, Тиафу – с Микельсеном


Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this


Рилсмейкер. Услуги Рилсмейкера. Рилсмейкер в Москве.

Минобороны подало иск к ЦМКБ «Алмаз» о взыскании неустойки в 11,5 млн рублей

МО РФ требует взыскать 11,5 млн рублей с проектировщика боевых кораблей

LEON Вторая лига А. «Торпедо» Миасс – «Спартак» Кострома, «Машук-КМВ» принимает «Ленинградец»


Соболев забивает дебютный гол за "Зенит" в ничейном матче с "Локомотивом"

Отвергнутый, ушедший и наследница. Что известно о детях Жириновского

Внук Никиты Михалкова — Андрей Баков: «Хожу на модные показы, чтобы уехать оттуда с девушкой. Я не однолюб»

Рилсмейкер. Услуги Рилсмейкера. Рилсмейкер в Москве.


Миллиарды Чубайса арестовали

Когда в Москве растает снег? Прогноз синоптиков на ближайшие дни

Стартовали съемки второго сезона детектива «Черное солнце» с Максимом Стояновым и Юрием Чурсиным

Собянин: В Москве обнаружены уникальные артефакты XVI–XVIII веков


Реклама
The most beautiful beach towns with cheap living

A huge number of people around the world dream of one day breaking out of the daily routine


Путин в России и мире
Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this



Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this



Реклама
The most beautiful beach towns with cheap living

A huge number of people around the world dream of one day breaking out of the daily routine



Реклама
Top 6 nutrition questions men should ask themselves after 40

To maintain health and remain full of energy, men will be helped by this

Персональные новости Russian.city
OG Buda

Рэперу OG Buda грозит штраф за пропаганду наркотиков в интернете



News Every Day

UFC on ESPN 65: Best photos from Las Vegas




Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости