Joey Cantillo Pitching Analysis
Introduction
My name is Joseph and I enjoy pitching. It has been very fun going through all this data and writing my thoughts, so I hope you enjoy! I have all the data I used listed below the writing, so feel free to scroll down below and skim through it to get an idea of who Joey Cantillo is as a pitcher. The heat maps (via FanGraphs) are Pitcher view: RHH on Right, LHH on Left. The data/info is from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard.
Fastball
48.2% FF -> 92.5 MPH, 17.4 iVB, 4.3 HB, 6.0 vRelh, 7.5 Ext.
Joey Cantillo throws a low 90s fastball with 17 inches of induced vertical break at an average release height (6.0 ft), the vert at that release is average, nothing special or bad. What’s special is his 99th percentile Extension on the fastball. It makes the fastball appear faster than it really is. Fangraphs has it as a 99 Stuff+ pitch, which puts it at a smidge below average (I think that’s valid, maybe 100–101).
The four-seamer is the pitch he throws the most, yet it’s his worst performing pitch. I don’t think is a stuff thing. I pin it on a combination of location and situation.
His main location intent when throwing the fastball is up and glove-side (same intent against RHH). But, it’s pretty much down the middle which is not good! Against lefties, the main location is down the middle, so it’s getting punished heavily there, too.
Situationally, he goes to his fastball 62.0% of the time when behind in the count, which is a good amount. He seems to be behind in the count way more than he should be, so he’s exposing his fastball more than he should be, and hitters are probably sitting on it at that point. When he’s ahead in the count, he loves going more up with it, and locating it better actually. Probably tries to get whiff or setup breaking/offspeed.
Location needs to be better, and stop getting behind in the count man!
Changeup
22.9% CH -> 77.9 MPH, 12.5 VB, 9.1 HB, 6.0 vRelh, 7.4 Ext
The pitch Joey is known for is his Changeup. It is a very interesting pitch. The release height and extension stay the same. But it is the 3rd slowestchangeup among LHP (at least 24 thrown) at 77.9 MPH, but has the 3rd highest induced vertical break of any LHP at 12.5 inches. The horizontal break is the 5th lowest of any LHP at 9.1 inches. Very unique pitch characteristics.
The total xSLG is .204 and the total xwOBA is .229, both are spectacular. He is locating it well, with low and arm-side being his main location. It has a 40.7 Whiff%, so it gets a ton of whiffs. Occasionally, it leaks down the middle, but that’s normal.
Against righties, it’s his most used non-fastball at 26.5%, with a 36.0 Whiff%. It’s his most used non-fastball when behind in the count vs. righties, at 17.8% and has a 60.0 Whiff% (he’s majority fastball when behind, no matter the handedness). In 2-strike counts against righties the usage shoots up to 34.0%, his most used non-fastball in those situations. He doesn’t really use it versus lefties which makes sense.
Overall, his best pitch!
Curveball
16.9% CU-> 75.9 MPH, -19.0 iVB, -6.0 HB, 6.1 vRelh, 7.2 Ext
His curveball is slow and big, having -19 inches of induced vertical break at 75.9 MPH, but not too much sweep with only -6 inches of glove-side break. FanGraphs has it as an 87 Stuff+ pitch, so below average.
The curveball has the highest PutAway% of any pitch against righties at 23.%. The xSLG is .194, and the xwOBA is .141. It has the highest Whiff% of any of pitches against righties in 2 strike counts, at 22.2%. It performs at an high level against righties. He has such a weird location with it though. The general location is up and arm-side, not a normal location for a curveball. It’s his least used pitch against lefties at 10.1%.
He uses the curveball the most of any non-fastball when the count is 0–0, and it is mainly down and glove-side (locates it the best in 0–0 counts?). Definitely a pitch to try and steal a first-pitch strike, which I like. With two strikes, his main location is up and arm-side, which again is not usual. There are a good number of curveballs being scattered at the bottom that are not centralized.
To say the least, his locations with the curveball baffle me. They seem to be inconsistently thrown, with him missing up and arm-side the most (natural miss?). If he can get the curveball down more it could be just as good as his changeup. But it still performs really well, so it’s a bit confusing!
Slider
12% SL -> 82.3 MPH, 1.9 iVB, -6.8 HB, 6.0 vRelh, 7.2 Ex
Lastly, his slider. He throws his slider the least of any pitch, at 12.0%. He throws it around 82 MPH, with positive iVB at 1.9 inches, and above average sweep at -6.8 inches. FanGraphs has it as his best pitch stuff-wise, with an 120 Stuff+ grade. I would say the slider is behind the changeup stuff-wise, but Stuff+ for changeups are wonky.
He throws it low and glove-side, with majority of his sliders in-zone. Against lefties, he throws the slider 21.5% of the time, making it his most used non-fastball. He has good location with it, being low and glove-side. A very good pitch to utilize versus lefties, and he does it well! Against righties, it is his least-used pitch at 7.6%, which makes sense. His location with it is very bad against righties, with it being down the middle and up most of the time. When he does throw a slider to a righty, he throws it when he is behind or even in the count 84% of the time.
What I Would Change
I would lower his 4-seam usage (RHH and LHH), probably closer to 40–43%. It is his worst performing pitch, and he throws it the most by a lot. I would move his fastball location to the arm-side (RHH and LHH). This could help set up his pitches better, like a cutter. I would then throw this cutter up and glove-side, like he is with his 4-seam right now. I think this would mesh his pitches well. It would also take off the heat the 4-seam, and would replace the slider against righties. I would also move his curveball location down and glove-side (self-explanatory). I would up the slider usage and lower the 4-seam usage against lefties. His slider has a 50 Whiff% against lefties and has been locating it well.
One thing he needs to fix (I’m sure he knows this) is to stop getting behind in the count. It is forcing him to go to his fastball, and hitters end up sitting on it. His cutter could help this, being a pitch he goes to when behind in the count. They added a cutter to Gavin Williams arsenal, so why not Joey Cantillo?
Below is my usage/location changes layed out in a visual style.
VS. RHH
FF arm-side (40%) — — — — — — — CT up and glove-side (15%)
CH low arm-side (25%) — — — — -CU low and glove-side (20%)
VS. LHH
FF arm-side (40%) — — — — — CT up and glove-side (15%)
CH low (10%) — —SL low and glove-side (30%) | CB low and glove-side (5%)
DATA IS BELOW!
TOTAL Pitches/Specs:
48.2% FF -> 92.5 MPH, 17.4 iVB, 4.3 HB, 6.0 vRel, 7.5 Ext
22.9% CH -> 77.9 MPH, 12.5 VB, 9.1 HB, 6.0 vRel, 7.5 Ext
16.9% CU-> 75.9 MPH, -19.0 iVB, -6.0 HB, 6.1 vRel, 7.2 Ext
12% SL -> 82.3 MPH, 1.9 iVB, -6.8 HB, 6.0 vRel, 7.2 Ext
SPLITS
VS RHH:
45.9% FF -> .770 xSLG (14 BBE)
26.5% CH -> .204 xSLG (6 BBE)
20% CU -> .194 xSLG (7 BBE)
7.6% SL -> .302 xSLG (4 BBE)
VS LHH:
53.2% FF -> 1.163 xSLG (9 BBE)
21.5% SL -> .681 xSLG (3 BBE)
15.2% CH -> 0 BBE
10.1% CU -> 0 BBE
PITCHER BEHIND COUNT
Pitcher Behind vs. RHH:
55.6% FF -> 1.521 xSLG (5 BBE)
17.8% CH -> .167 xSLG (1 BBE)
13.3% CU -> .150 xSLG (1 BBE)
13.3% SL -> .193 xSLG (1 BBE)
Pitcher Behind vs. LHH
70.6% FF -> 1.442 xSLG (5 BBE)
20.6% SL -> .309 xSLG (1 BBE)
5.9% CH (2 pitches) -> 0 BBE
2.9% CU (1 pitch) -> 0 BBE
PITCHER AHEAD IN COUNT
Pitcher Ahead vs. RHH:
42.6% FF -> .067 xSLG (1 BBE)
38.3% CH -> .081 xSLG (1 BBE)
14.9% CU -> .329 xSLG (1 BBE)
4.3% SL (2 pitches) -> .480 xSLG (1 BBE)
Pitcher Ahead vs. LHH:
50.0% FF (6 pitches) -> .163 xSLG (1 BBE)
33.3% SL (4 pitches) -> 0 BBE
16.7% CH (2 pitches) -> 0 BBE
Sources
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joey-cantillo-676282?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/chamb117/viz/PitchLeaderboardv6/Dashboard