Add news
March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010
August 2010
September 2010 October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015 April 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019 January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 November 2020 December 2020 January 2021 February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 August 2021 September 2021 October 2021 November 2021 December 2021 January 2022 February 2022 March 2022 April 2022 May 2022 June 2022 July 2022 August 2022 September 2022 October 2022 November 2022 December 2022 January 2023 February 2023 March 2023 April 2023 May 2023 June 2023 July 2023 August 2023 September 2023 October 2023 November 2023 December 2023 January 2024 February 2024 March 2024 April 2024 May 2024 June 2024 July 2024
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
News Every Day |

Only Iran can benefit from the coming war between Israel and Hezbollah

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, says that the most intense phase of Israel’s assault on Gaza is ending. Units of the Israel Defense Forces are being moved to the Lebanese border where there are signs that fighting with Hezbollah is intensifying.

Since the war began after the October 7 Hamas attack, citizens living in northern Israel have been subjected to almost continuous rocket fire from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. More than 61,000 Israelis have been displaced, 28 killed and thousands of buildings destroyed or severely damaged. Thousands of acres of orchards and forest have been burned.

Directly inside Israel’s border with Lebanon, citizens are regularly forced to take refuge in bomb shelters as Hezbollah gradually extends the range of its attacks – local press noted that 50 new mobile bomb shelters were being brought in to supplement more than 120 already installed in the region. Israel has responded with attacks on Hezbollah missile sites and with assassinations of Hezbollah commanders, to little avail.

Though it is easy to conflate Hamas in Gaza with Hezbollah in Lebanon, these two organisations are very different. Hamas is a fundamentalist Sunni organisation, though sufficiently pragmatic to form alliances with its ideological opponents – whether that’s the Alawite-dominated regime in Syria (till the start of the civil war in 2011) and, more recently, with Shia Iran.

For its part, Iran is only too happy to provide Hamas with the arms and training to pursue its war with Israel, but has no direct control over its actions.

Hezbollah, by contrast, is not merely an Iranian proxy, but an extension of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is effectively Iran’s proconsul in the Levant. The movement is both a Lebanese political party and a militia that can call up as many as 100,000 trained fighters, making it more powerful than Lebanon’s official military.

To understand its recent behaviour, one must understand how Iran may be changing its strategy. Iran’s most cherished goal is to chase the United States from the Middle East and then dominate its immediate surroundings, particularly the Arab lands to its east. The 2003 US invasion of Iraq and toppling of Saddam Hussain’s Sunni minority government created a power vacuum that was quickly filled by Shia militias and pro-Iranian political parties.

In the long run, eliminating Israel means removing a rival power as well as America’s closest ally. There is also a theological element to Iran’s eliminationist ideology.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has repeatedly predicted that Israel, founded in 1948, would not reach its 80th anniversary. Nonetheless, until the night of April 13 to 14, when it launched over 300 drones and missiles against Israel, Iran avoided direct confrontations with the Jewish state.

Instead, in a policy reminiscent of that maintained by Egypt’s president, Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 1950s and 1960s, Iran’s goal has been to gradually weaken Israel through an endless war of attrition. Forcing the country to keep its reserve force permanently mobilised would undermine the economy and sap morale. To avoid direct retaliation, it arms irregular forces, such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels, to operate from their territory.

Change of plan

The last time Hezbollah launched a serious assault in 2006, Israel invaded and only agreed to withdraw after Nasrallah agreed to abide by UN security council resolution 1701. That stipulated that Hezbollah would be disarmed and the Lebanese Army deployed to the border. None of this was actually implemented.

Yet aside from occasional exchanges of fire, Israel’s northern border remained relatively quiet. Iran, having spent billions of dollars into building up Hezbollah, kept it in reserve as a deterrent against Israeli or US attacks on its nuclear facilities.

The calculus in Tehran now appears to have changed. As the Biden administration looks for ways to extricate itself from the Middle East and focus on the Pacific, the likelihood of a US strike against Iran’s nuclear programme has receded. In the wake of the October 7 attacks, Israel appears weaker, its government deeply unpopular and deeply divided in a way that makes strategic planning nearly impossible.

One expression of the government’s ongoing dysfunction is the determination of Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, to preserve “coalition funds” that prop up the government by supporting narrow sectoral interests at a time when the budget deficit is already 7% of GDP.

In May, the Governor of the Bank of Israel, Prof Amir Yaron warned that the direct and indirect costs of the war will reach about US$67 billion (£53 billion).

So far, the war in Gaza has shown the Israeli economy to be remarkably resilient to large shocks. Investors remain broadly optimistic about the country’s long-term economic outlook. But the cost of a protracted struggle in Lebanon will be far higher and place enormous strain on the economy.

Dangerous moment

Iran, meanwhile is sufficiently emboldened to have recently accelerated its processing of highly enriched uranium. Meanwhile, Nasrallah not only announced that his elite Redwan fighters are ready to invade and capture Israel’s Galilee region, but threatened to attack shipping in the Mediterranean and even strike Cyprus should the country continue to cooperate with Israel. Cyprus is an EU member where the UK maintains two military bases.

Nasrallah indicated that Hezbollah could soon extend its fire to Haifa, the country’s third-largest urban area, home to one-tenth of the country’s population, with the largest concentration of heavy industry. Haifa is also the site of Israel’s main port and naval base. An attack on Haifa would prompt an immediate invasion of Lebanon and a full-scale war.

Moreover, Hezbollah has 150,000 rockets trained on Israel, many of which can reach Tel Aviv and beyond. Aside from the physical damage and loss of life, a war of this scale would dwarf the substantial cost of the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

The impact of war on Israel will be dire and the effects on Lebanon – already effectively a failed state – much worse. Much of Hezbollah’s arsenal of missiles are buried in silos hidden in civilian areas. Lebanese villages are often located on the sides of mountain passes where Hezbollah will dig in. Given the need to get to the silos quickly, before all the missiles can be launched, a ground invasion will be necessary – but will be costly in Israeli lives, with huge collateral damage and civilian deaths.

In the event of full-scale war, Iran may also launch its own ballistic missiles again and try to overwhelm Israel’s defences. Demands for Israel to exercise restraint, as it did in April after Iran attacked it with 300 missiles, are unlikely to be heeded if major Israeli cities are being hit. It’s impossible to predict how much farther the conflict could spread from there.

The Conversation

Michael Ben-Gad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.


Суд арестовал бывшего силовика по делу о подрыве 20-летней давности

Warner will not be considered for 2025 Champions Trophy: Bailey

UFC Denver video: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage ends in no-contest after illegal blows

Bears Reportedly Played A Big Part In Giants Losing Saquon Barkley

‘He walked just fine’: Pros react to Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage ending in controversial no-contest

Read also

Frumpy Mom: Who does the dishes in your house?

Two people found dead at Reynoldsburg home

End in sight for East Bay fire district? West County agency could lose independence

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on

News Every Day

Warner will not be considered for 2025 Champions Trophy: Bailey — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here

News Every Day

‘He walked just fine’: Pros react to Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage ending in controversial no-contest

Sports today

Новости тенниса
Новак Джокович

Алькарас – четвертый теннисист, который дважды обыграл Джоковича в финале «Большого шлема»

Спорт в России и мире

Тульские спортсмены завоевали медали Кубка России по плаванию

All sports news today

Sports in Russia today


Тульские спортсмены завоевали медали Кубка России по плаванию

Новости России

Game News

CD Projekt's Pawel Sasko tells the inspiring tale of how an Estonian beet farmer in Australia became a senior quest designer on The Witcher 4


Триумфальное возвращение выставки «Мусор в моих карманах»

Губернаторы России
Алла Пугачёва

Бомжи поселились в эксклюзивном лимузине Пугачевой

Пожарный вертолёт вместе с водой сбросил огромную рыбу в центре Москвы

Daily Mail: бразильский эксперт Мораэс реконструировал внешность Ивана Грозного

Студия звукозаписи в Москве. Студия звукозаписи цена.


SHAMAN посетил концерт Лепса в компании любимой жены

Что приготовит зрителям «Рекорд Оркестр» в ЦДКЖ 18 августа в Квартирнике с Маргулисом?

Розенбаум поблагодарил движение «МотоАнгелыДетям» и вручил им гитару

Анастасия Решетова рассказала про «аварийный период» сына от Тимати

Алькарас уверенно переиграл Джоковича и выиграл Уимблдон

«Исхудавшая, но с сияющей улыбкой»: онкобольная Кейт Миддлтон появилась на финале Уимблдона

Крейчикова о своем тренере Новотной, которая умерла в 2017-м: «Я даже не мечтала, что однажды выиграю тот же трофей, что и Яна»

Надаль, Шаповалов, Опелка, Томлянович сыграют на US Open по защищенному рейтингу, Осака не попала в основу

Зампредправления Сбера Анатолий Попов рассказал о продуктах исламского финансирования Сбербанка

Выборы мэра Сочи могут отменить из-за нарушений

Красочная фотозона и «Дискотека Детского радио» для гостей фестиваля «Вкус Лета»

Письмо генеральному прокурору и отмена выборов - чем может обернуться избрание нового главы города Сочи?

Создание Афиши Выступления или Концерта, Мероприятия, События.

Студия звукозаписи в Москве. Студия звукозаписи цена.

В СЛД «Абакан» филиала «Красноярский» компании «ЛокоТех-сервис» поступили новые электровозы 3ЭС5К

«Химки» подписали контракт с экс-игроком ЦСКА Гогуа

Экс-глава департамента культуры Москвы Кибовский арестован на два месяца

В Подмосковье рассказали, как подготовиться к отдыху с питомцем на природе

Стройготовность школы на 2 тыс мест в Котельниках составляет 80%

В Москву идет долгожданное снижение температуры. Правда, с дождями и сильным ветром...

Путин в России и мире

Персональные новости
Большой театр

Большой театр впервые в новейшей истории побывал в Кирове с гастролями

News Every Day

UFC Denver video: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage ends in no-contest after illegal blows

Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости