Add news
March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010
August 2010
September 2010 October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015 April 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019 January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 November 2020 December 2020 January 2021 February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 August 2021 September 2021 October 2021 November 2021 December 2021 January 2022 February 2022 March 2022 April 2022 May 2022 June 2022 July 2022 August 2022 September 2022 October 2022 November 2022 December 2022 January 2023 February 2023 March 2023 April 2023 May 2023 June 2023 July 2023 August 2023 September 2023 October 2023 November 2023 December 2023 January 2024 February 2024 March 2024 April 2024 May 2024 June 2024 July 2024
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
News Every Day |

Trump's convictions show no distinct effect on voter backing

Trump's convictions show no distinct effect on voter backing

With Donald Trump’s felony convictions inscribed in the historical record and the first debate of the presidential cycle about to take place, time is ripe for both more accountability and additional iconoclasm. 

First, accountability. 

I recently argued here against the proposition that voters would punish Trump if a jury of his peers convicted him of felonies.

How has that prediction fared? 

Listening to many of television’s talking heads, you’d think the sharp decline in Trump support predicted by the pre-trial polls had materialized in real life. The facts say otherwise. 

Instead of cherry-picking individual polls, start with changes detected by poll aggregators who average all the polls using somewhat different rules.

One baseline is just before the trial began on April 15. 538’s average gave Trump a margin of .8 points over Biden on April 14

The day after the verdict was rendered, Trump’s margin grew slightly to 1.4 points. 

Of course, during the weeks of the trial a variety of other events could have intervened to alter the race. What happens if we bound the dates more tightly?

The day before the verdict, Trump led by 1.2 points; the day after, 1.4 points; the week after, 1.2 points.

So, altogether, somewhere between no change and the tiniest movement toward Trump,

but the convictions produced no evidence of sharp decline in Trump support.

RealClearPolitics generates a slightly different average but yields similar results, with Trump very slightly improved from the day before the trial to the day after the verdict, though .4 of point lower the day after the verdict than the day before. Hardly meaningful in a polling context.

The Hill collaborates with Decision Desk HQ to produce yet a third average, which moved against Trump by 0 to .2 points, depending on your chosen start date. Taken as a group, these aggregated data reveal no consistent evidence of meaningful, verdict induced, punishment of Trump.

A second approach compares individual polls from the same company before the trial started and after the verdicts were rendered. I found six such polls. The change in Trump’s margin ranged from a decline of 2 points to an increase of 6 points, with an average of less than a 1-point movement toward Trump.

In only two of the six polls was Trump faring worse after the convictions than before them. 

Again, no clear evidence that the felony convictions hurt Trump. 

Finally, two pollsters conducted recontact surveys, reinterviewing voters after the verdict that they had interviewed previously. Both appeared to show about 2 percent deserting Trump. 

Some may debate whether that constitutes a sharp decline; however, the sample was so small that only seven people moved away from Trump and five of those seven shifted to undecided. Nearly as many—five people—moved away from Biden between their two surveys.

The New York Times/Siena Poll reinterviewed a much larger cohort, 1,897 voters they had interviewed in April and May nationally and in their swing state surveys. They found a 2-point shift in the margin, with Trump shedding 1 point and President Biden picking up 1 point. 

That’s a small movement at most. Moreover, since these respondents were interviewed in April and May and many reside in swing states that were subjected to intense campaigning, there is no reason to believe that all, or even most, of them switched because of the convictions.  

Add it all up and there’s a bit of evidence of tiny movement away from Trump, a bit of evidence of tiny movement toward Trump, a good deal of evidence of no impact and no evidence of a sharp decline in Trump support as a result of his felony convictions.  

Now the iconoclasm.

Commentators are expecting big things from the forthcoming Biden-Trump debate.

If one of the candidates drools into the camera for five minutes (or the functional equivalent), the effects could be substantial. Otherwise, history suggests not risking a big bet on big impact. 

Debates have probably never decided a presidential election. Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton all “won” their debates, but none won the presidency.

That does not mean debates have no effect — their effects are just usually small and not sustained.

For a host of reasons, it could be different this time, but the tendency to overestimate the impact of campaign events, anointing them “game changers,” seems as irresistible as it is inaccurate.  

Mellman is a pollster and president of The Mellman Group, a political consultancy. He is also president of Democratic Majority for Israel.


Более 30 жителей Одинцова прошли обследование в Единый день диспансеризации

Suspect arrested for ‘threatening to kill Trump and his VP pick JD Vance’ in Florida days after assassination attempt

Actors Who Died With Unfinished Roles

Faculty of International Journalism and Mass Communications Eurasian International University is conducting an additional intake of applicants!

Exclusive - Sayantani Ghosh expresses happiness as sets of her show Dahej Daasi shifted close to her home; says 'I've been manifesting this for quite some time now'

Read also

Columbus gas price increase propels average to $3.50 per gallon

The first wave of AI innovation is over. Here’s what comes next

Coronation Street fans slam soap’s ‘forgotten storylines’ as another devastating death looms

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on

News Every Day

Suspect arrested for ‘threatening to kill Trump and his VP pick JD Vance’ in Florida days after assassination attempt — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here

News Every Day

Exclusive - Sayantani Ghosh expresses happiness as sets of her show Dahej Daasi shifted close to her home; says 'I've been manifesting this for quite some time now'

Sports today

Новости тенниса
Андрей Рублёв

Тарпищев: Рублёву надо не играть, а заняться своим здоровьем

Спорт в России и мире

Министр спорта Забайкалья принял участие во Всероссийском семинаре-совещании по вопросу перспектив развития спортивной отрасли в Москве

All sports news today

Sports in Russia today


До конца июля анимационная компания «ЯРКО» проведет еще одно мероприятие в ТРЦ «Ривьера» – развлекательную программу по мотивам мультсериала «Команда МАТЧ» (‍27 июля).

Новости России

Game News

According to BioWare, Dragon Age: The Veilguard is the first entry in the series where "the combat's actually fun" and where characters are "intentionally" the focus of the storytelling, which seems pretty unfair on the first three games


Филиал № 4 ОСФР по Москве и Московской области информирует: С начала 2024 года 140 тысяч женщин и новорожденных Московского региона получили услуги по родовым сертификатам

Губернаторы России
Сергей Собянин

Собянин рассказал о работе Московского международного дома музыки

Отрытый конкурс красоты и таланта «Одна на миллион»

ЦБ придумал, как рассчитывать доллар и евро после санкций против "Мосбиржи"

Прощай, ЕС! Россия будет поставлять газ в Иран по сверхмощному трубопроводу

Певец Дмитрий Камский готовит к релизу новый сингл "Песня Земли"

Художники Калмыкии представили «Мелодию степи» в Москве

Shaman связал выход Байдена из гонки со своим концертом перед посольством США

Главред журнала Musicus представит новгородцам лекции о жизни и творчестве Сергея Рахманинова

Shaman объяснил, почему выступил у посольства США в Москве

Теннисистку из Красноярска допустили до Олимпиады в Париже

Рафаэль Надаль проиграл в первом финале тура ATP в преддверии своей последней Олимпиады

Рейтинг ATP. Рууд обошел Рублева, Берреттини вернулся в топ-50, Надаль поднялся на 100 строчек

Медведев в матче против Синнера на Уимблдоне проявил характер, заявил Ольховский

Отрытый конкурс красоты и таланта «Одна на миллион»

Несколько авиарейсов в Томск задерживаются из-за тумана

Филиал № 4 ОСФР по Москве и Московской области информирует: С начала 2024 года 140 тысяч женщин и новорожденных Московского региона получили услуги по родовым сертификатам

Бизнесмен вакцинировался от суда // Дело об особо крупной растрате рассмотрят в заочном режиме

Цены на аренду жилья в России выросли за год на 40%

Google отказалась от ИИ-функции поиска в сервисе Фото из-за технических проблем

На «Атомайз» состоялась первая в России цифровая секьюритизация портфеля кредитов

Владимир Минеев под крики "русские вперёд" избил и уложил на ринг Магомеда Исмаилова


Актрису Нину Гуляеву экстренно госпитализировали с холециститом

Пациента с грыжей диаметром 10 сантиметров спасли врачи в Одинцове

За сколько часов можно научиться вождению транспортного средства?

Путин в России и мире

Персональные новости

У посольства США в Москве прошел митинг-концерт Shaman против блокировки на YouTube

News Every Day

Exclusive - Sayantani Ghosh expresses happiness as sets of her show Dahej Daasi shifted close to her home; says 'I've been manifesting this for quite some time now'

Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости