Biden advisers optimistic about taking back Florida

TALLAHASSEE—  President Biden’s reelection campaign insists it is bullish on Florida, investing money and people in the Sunshine State to try to reclaim it from Republicans.

“Florida is absolutely in play,” Dan Kanninen, the battleground states director for Biden, said in a phone interview with the Orlando Sentinel.

While Florida is not a top-tier battleground state in 2024 like it has been in past presidential elections, Democrats say they are not rolling over.

The campaign has hired 28 full-time staff, a political director and communications director. and opened 13 offices in key cities across the state from Miami to Pensacola. Its state headquarters are in The City Beautiful.

“We’ll have a presence in all the major markets in Florida,” said Kanninen, whose job is to decide in which states to invest campaign dollars. “Unlike Trump, who is not investing in this state, we have a strong team of leaders on the ground who are building organizing teams.”

But Evan Power, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, said the Biden folks are not being realistic.

“We’re going to win Florida, and we’re going to win it big,” Power said.

Florida hasn’t gone for a Democrat since 2012 when voters chose Barack Obama over Mitt Romney.

Since then, it’s grown increasingly and solidly Republican. Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Florida by 1 percentage point in 2016 and he won by 3.3 points over Biden in 2020. The GOP solidified its base in the 2022 midterms with Gov. Ron DeSantis clinching his reelection by nearly 20 points over Democrat Charlie Crist.

The Biden campaign say its top priorities are states he won in 2020 —  Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The campaign is also focused on one state they narrowly lost — North Carolina.

Biden Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillion said she considered those six and North Carolina as battleground states that represent the main path to reelection. In a podcast on Sunday, she said “no” when asked if Florida was a battleground state, prompting debate about how committed the Biden campaign was to Florida.

But campaign staff said this week Florida remains important to the Biden reelection effort and recent polls have given them hope the state could provide an alternate path to victory.

It’s why Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison came to Florida last week — to reiterate that Florida is winnable. “I feel good about the direction that we’re going,” Harrison told ABC’s Action News last week.

In Florida, Trump has seen a 6 point lead over Biden drop to four points according to a recent FOX poll, and last week’s Redfield poll showed the lead shrinking to 3 points. A CBS News poll released Tuesday shows nationwideTrump leading Biden by 1 point.

Florida will still be tough, Kanninen said, but conservative Republicans like Trump and DeSantis are out of touch with the concerns of most Floridians, like rising insurance rates and inflation, he said.

“With a changing and diverse electorate and with Donald Trump’s overturning of Roe v Wade paving the way for a six-week abortion ban in Florida, Democrats inside and outside of the state know that there is a pathway to victory in Florida,” said Abhi Rahman, deputy communications director of the DNC. “Floridians know Trump and Desantis’ failures firsthand and Florida Republican MAGA extremism, and are ready to send Trump back to Mar-a-Lago for good in November.”

Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff have all made recent campaign stops in Florida. Grassroots groups such as Seniors for Biden rolled out successfully, Kanninen said, and the Democrats have launched an ad for the second anniversary of the Dobbs Supreme Court decision that sent abortion regulation back to the states.

He also thinks the Biden campaign can build on the recent modest wins Democrats have had in Florida, including flipping the Jacksonville Mayor’s office blue and state Rep. Tom Keen winning a Central Florida seat left vacant when Republican Fred Hawkins resigned to become president of South Florida State College.

The fact that Florida Democrats have put up candidates in all 168 state and congressional races strengthens the Biden campaign, Kanninen added. That kind of showing “generates turnouts that cut into margins,” he said.

Taking back Florida would be a decisive blow to Trump’s reelection chances, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said.

“We’re not naïve about the challenges ahead,” she said, “but we’re building the foundation of Democratic success, not just for this cycle, but for the years and decades to come. Don’t count Florida out.”

Trump has nearly caught up to Biden in national fundraising, but is sitting on the money and not using it to build up his campaign infrastructure, Bloomberg reported.

Trump raised $217 million in April and May, but his campaign and the RNC spent just $33.5 million — $54 million less than Biden and the DNC over the same period, Bloomberg reported.

But Republicans said they were in good shape in Florida.  Between the Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee and the Republican Party of Florida, Power said, “We have plenty of resources on the ground.”

According to Bloomberg, Biden had $212 million cash on hand at the end of May, “a record amount for a Democratic candidate at this point in the election.”

Steve Schale, a Tallahassee-based Democratic political consultant, said Democrats’ fastest path to election victory is through the key battleground states. But Florida shouldn’t be ignored and could prove crucial.

“I do think there’s a middle ground and that’s where it feels like they are — hiring staff, dedicating some principal time and investing in infrastructure and paid communications,” Schale said. “That’s not that different from Georgia or Arizona last time.”

Those two states were considered unwinnable for Democrats but wound up being hotly contested races where Biden ultimately prevailed.