Fight Picks: Deontay Wilder vs. Zhilei Zhang

Heavyweight power-punchers Deontay Wilder and Zhilei Zhang will headline the Queensberry vs. Matchroom 5×5 at The Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Saturday.

The intriguing matchup is one neither fighter can afford to lose. It will be broadcast on DAZN Pay-Per-View. The event begins at 2 p.m. ET/ 11 a.m. PT. and also on TNT Sports and DAZN in the U.K. at 7 p.m.

Wilder, rated at No. 9 by The Ring at heavyweight, claimed bronze at the 2008 Olympics before he turned professional and won his first 32 fights inside the distance. He outboxed Bermane Stiverne (UD 12) to win the WBC title and made ten successful defenses.

The Alabama native displayed his much-vaunted power icying Stiverne (KO 1) in a rematch and Luis Ortiz (TKO 10 and KO 7) to set up the eagerly anticipated showdown with Tyson Fury. He benefitted from the scorecards to retain his title on a draw but was beaten down in the rematch and stopped in seven rounds, and then lost an exciting third fight in 11-rounds. Wilder returned with a violent knockout of Robert Helenius (KO 1). However, the 38-year-old looked lost as he was outhustled by Joseph Parker (L UD 12) in his most recent outing.

Zhang, rated at No. 5 by The Ring at heavyweight, captured silver for China at the 2008 Olympics and lost narrowly to eventual gold medal winner Anthony Joshua at London 2012. “Big Bang” turned professional in 2014. His progress was slow until he stepped up and faced unbeaten Filip Hrgovic, losing a contentious 12-round unanimous decision.

However, the 41-year-old Chinese southpaw scored a career-best win over Joe Joyce (TKO 6) in April and followed that up with an even more emphatic third-round knockout in their rematch. Nevertheless, he was subsequently beaten by Parker, despite scoring a pair of knockdowns.

This one appears to be a very intriguing match up between two flawed but big punchers, which figures to end in dramatic fashion. Wilder (43-3-1, 42 knockouts) has had to over-rely on that power to get him out of a few sticky situations during his career and struggled when he couldn’t pull the trigger against Parker last time out. The New Zealander gave Wilder some movement, which Zhang won’t, since he’ll be a much more stationary target. However, at this stage of his career the real question is whether he still has the desire he once had.

Zhang (26-2-1, 21 KOs) is usually strong in the first half. We’ve seen him outboxed in the second half by Hrgovic and Parker in his two loses but he also has to be weary of Wilder’s nuclear power. He’s never been hit by anyone like the American. How will Wilder deal with the much bigger physique (Zhang figures to be around 75 pounds heavier) and southpaw stance of the Big Bang? Zhang will be there to be hit, but how will he hold up under a right hand from Wilder?

Online gambling group William Hill lists Zhang as an 8/11 (-138) favorite, while Wilder is priced at 6/4 (+120); the draw is 20/1 (+2000).

Here’s how the experts see it:

THE RING 

ANSON WAINWRIGHT: ZHANG TKO 5

“This is fascinating because this fight has so many questions. We have no clue what to expect from these two big-punching fighters. I could see any outcome in this fight. Wilder looked awful last time out and maybe he is a shot fighter. Zhang had moments against Joseph Parker but also struggled. It seems if you can get through the early going against Zhang you can outhustle him in the second half of the fight but that’s not Wilder’s style. Both have the power to hurt the other and it’s probably who strikes first. I don’t think this fight goes into the second half with both knowing one mistake could likely spell the end. I think Zhang’s southpaw stance and extra weight could be key. I’ll go without too much conviction for Zhang to catch and stop Wilder in five rounds.”

LEE GROVES: ZHANG KO 7

“Talk about a great pairing of nicknames — “The Bronze Bomber” versus “Big Bang” Zhang. This is a fight that demands a knockout ending, and according to the oddsmakers who have Zhang a slight favorite, one has the right to assume they’re most swayed by the difference in punch resistance that favors Zhang as well as Wilder’s dismal performance against common conqueror Joseph Parker, a man Zhang floored twice before losing on points. If Zhang lands his lethal left cross on Wilder’s chin, especially early, there will be no opportunity for Wilder to exploit Zhang’s biggest weakness, stamina. That’s what happened in the Joe Joyce rematch and the pick is that Zhang’s “Big Bang” will be enough to take out the “Bronze Bomber.”

DIEGO MORILLA: WILDER UD

“It’s been a while since we’ve seen Wilder perform to our best expectations, but the basics are still there. Zhang may be surging and enjoying a good moment, but in terms of speed and even power he is noticeably a notch below Wilder. Zhang has a puncher’s chance, but if the best Wilder shows up on fight night, Zhang will be in trouble. My money is on the latter.”

MARTIN MULCAHY: WILDER TKO 5

“I have never been a big backer of Deontay Wilder… nor Zhilei Zhang. When evaluating both, I feel Zhang is the perfect opponent for Wilder to get his grove back and some of his reputation as a finisher. Wilder has been beaten by good boxers who understand the use of space, and has problem with boxers that are quick fisted or faster with their feet. Zhang is none of those, but I do rate his toughness and ability to deliver shots at close range. I don’t think Zhang can crowd Wilder or cut off the ring, thus leaving that punching space Wilder wants to unfurl his long armed bombs. Unless Wilder is completely shot, I see him avoiding Zhang’s charges and countering at will, eventually catching Zhang so often his corner or referee is forced to step in before the halfway point has been reached. Going with a fifth round stoppage, probably by the referee jumping in as a barrage of punches leaves Zhang helpless in the corner.”

MICHAEL MONTERO: ZHANG TKO

“Both men suffered losses to Joseph Parker in their last fight. However, Wilder was dominated, while Zhang kept it close. As long as he has stayed in shape over the last few months, I like Zhang to beat up and stop Wilder. This feels like a cash out for the American. Gimme ‘Big Bang’ by late stoppage.”

RON BORGES: WILDER TKO

“Not so long ago I would have picked Wilder by KO and not thought twice about. But Wilder’s recent performances have me wondering if, like many KO guys, they fade quickly. Wilder looks to be in that fading point of his career. Having said that Zhang is a step down from Tyson Fury and Joseph Parker. Then again, Parker dominated Wilder while Zhang lost to him by majority decision in a close fight. So who wins? Zhang could easily beat Wilder if the latter continues to fade but this is also a crossroads fight for Wilder. He has to understand, one would think, that a fourth loss in his last five fights means an end to him as a legitimate contender and big payday money maker. So I’ll go with the more desperate fighter in Wilder and pick him by TKO. But I’m not doing it with a lot of conviction, to be honest.”

BOXING INSIDERS

DUKE MCKENZIE (FORMER THREE-DIVISION TITLEHOLDER/TV ANALYST): ZHANG TKO 10

“I won’t state the obvious and I would be disappointed if either tried to change tactics in this mouth-watering battle.  Zhang’s southpaw style will cause Wilder problems. Neither of these two have great stamina which only spices things up even more. They will have to stand and trade blows, Wilder’s only hope of getting the TKO has to come early. If Zhang can get past the early rounds it’s his fight, bigger, stronger and has a better ring IQ than Wilder. Zhang wins inside 10-rounds by TKO and sends Wilder into retirement.”

TOM GRAY (FORMER MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE RING): WILDER TKO 4

“Zhang might be the perfect opponent for Wilder at this point. The Chinese colossus is 41 years old, he fights at a slow pace and he’s very heavy footed. Wilder’s ability to position himself to punch is massively underrated, and Zhang, while he judges distance well, can’t match him in this area. The former champ needs to watch what’s coming back at him because Zhang is a murderous hitter himself. I’ve just got a hunch that Wilder is going to land with something supersonic and end this fight in an instant.”

STEVE KIM (THE 3 KNOCKDOWN RULE): ZHANG TKO 

“This is a fight between two heavyweights that can really bang. Unlike Joseph Parker, Zhang will be much easier to find for Wilder. There are clear pathways for his right hand to land versus the huge Chinese southpaw. But just as he did against Fury, he is facing a huge weight deficit, and if he gets pushed back, his right hand is that much less effective. If Zhang come in a bit lighter (and therefore a bit more mobile than he was in his last fight) I expect him to put Wilder on the back foot and eventually stop Wilder in the seventh or eighth round. Wilder is still somewhat dangerous, but I wonder if he has his legs underneath him.”

JOE ROTONDA (MATCHMAKER, MAIN EVENTS): ZHANG TKO

“I like this fight a lot, two giant heavyweights in a situation where a loss could be the end any hopes of getting to the top of the division. I think Wilder has to be in desperation mode here. He’s only won a single bout since 2019 and he’ll be 39-years-old in just a couple of months. He has had an incredible career, but I don’t like what I saw in his last bout with Joseph Parker. The legs just were not present and neither was any killer instinct on Deontay’s part. Although Zhang lost his previous bout as well, also to Joseph Parker, I think even at 41-years of age he has a lot of fight left in him. I think he overwhelms the Bronze Bomber en route to a stoppage win halfway through the bout.”

ROBERT DIAZ (MATCHMAKER): WILDER KO 9

“Interesting fight, anytime you have two big boys who can punch, expect a barnburner, this will not be the exception. It is a must win for both, while I am hearing Wilder may fight again on August 3 against Jared Anderson he needs to stay focused as Zhang can derail that. I see a slow beginning as they will both be cautious of each other’s power in the early rounds. Deontay will use his reach to keep Zhang outside and Zhang will use his size and weight to muscle his way inside. In the fourth or fifth round, the first big bomb lands and I expect a knockdown. I can see Wilder getting caught and going down. He gets up and in Wilder fashion begins to land his bombs. The fight is on, Zhang has shown some stamina issues in the past and begins to tire in the seventh. By the ninth round both are exhausted but the famous Bomb Squad lands Wilder KO 9!”

RICH MAROTTA (COMMENTATOR): ZHANG KO 8

“Here’s another intriguing fight in a whole series of 2024 interesting matchups. Two big old guys, two big punchers. This could go a number of ways, and I’m hoping its not a boring, plodding affair. My feeling is that it will go to the other side of the coin. It should provide tense, edge-of-the-seat stuff because of the thudding power each possesses. I would not be at all surprised to see each man knocked down in this one. Wilder looked like he was seriously deteriorating in the match against Parker, who boxed smartly. However, Parker has a whole different skillset than Zhang, so I don’t see the Chinese star being able to use the same strategy. In trying to visualize, I see both landing power shots, but Zhang better able to absorb, and eventually knocking out Wilder somewhere around the eighth round.”

JOLENE MIZZONE (MANAGER): ZHANG UD

“Let me start off by saying, you know when it is a good fight when you go back and forth with your pick. My first pick was Wilder because of his power and how he did well with Ortiz who is a southpaw, but then I go back to Zhang who has been in with punchers and did well (i.e. Hrgovic and Joyce). They both fought the same guy in Parker, and both didn’t look great, but I am going to go with Zhang simple because he had Parker down twice in the fight with him. This is why you have to love heavyweight fighting because one punch can change it all. They both have power so I think someone will go down.”

ALEX STEEDMAN (COMMENTATOR): ZHANG KO

“The big question here is which version of Zhang and Wilder is going to show up? Because both men, in different ways, were notably poor last time. Wilder looked like he’d been toking on pacifiers for months while Zhang was simply too heavy and incapable of sustaining attacks. But at both their best and their worst, this pair could still come together to create a memorable firefight. Wilder only needs one moment and Zhang needs to get close to be effective so he will be in danger. But we simply can’t trust Wilder’s approach or mindset right now and Zhang is one of the more technical opponents he’s been in with. Zhang, if motivated, can carve out the openings for a spectacular win.”

CAMILLE ESTEPHAN (PROMOTER, EYE OF THE TIGER): ZHANG KO

“I believe this one is of the don’t-blink material. Both guys have devastating power, so needless to say the odds of going the distance are very slim. Although Wilder does have the faster hands, overall I feel Zhang is in a better place physically at the moment and is more able to handle a shot than Wilder is. I favour Zhang to win by knockout.”

STEVE FARHOOD (TV ANALYST): WILDER PTS

“Ouch! Wilder has won once since 2019! Zhang is over 40 and can be outboxed. My guess is that if Wilder fights a controlled fight, he’ll win on points. I just can’t see him fighting as poorly as he did in his loss to Parker.”

AGIT KABAYEL (HEAVYWEIGHT CONTENDER): ZHANG KO

“I think it will be a tough fight because both are big punchers. The open question for me is how Deontay deals with a big southpaw like Zhang? For some reason my gut feeling tells me Zhang will win by KO and end the career of Deontay Wilder.”

MATTHEW MACKLIN (FORMER WORLD TITLE CHALLENGER/ COMMENTATOR): ZHANG KO

“A really tough one to call because it’s really hard to tell where Wilder is at. Prior to the Joseph Parker fight I’d have said Wilder as Zhang ain’t that hard to find and Wilder’s power is devastating. Now, obviously ring rust would have been a factor for Wilder’s poor showing but also Joseph Parker’s movement and self-belief were also factors. On top of that, listening to Wilder in interviews, he seemed like a guy that was on a spiritual journey trying to find himself. Now whilst that might make him a better person, it probably strips him of that vicious streak you need as a fighter. In summary, from what I can gather from the outside looking in, I don’t think Wilder really wants to box anymore and is most likely cashing out, so I go with Zhang by KO, but obviously Wilder only needs one clean punch so who knows?”

WAYNE MCCULLOUGH (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/ TRAINER): WILDER KO 3

“The winner of the upcoming fight between Deontay Wilder and Zhilei Zhang should set them up to get back into the mix of the heavyweight division. Ironically, they are both coming off loses to Joseph Parker. They can both bang hard but they lack basic boxing skills. I think Zhang will give Wilder problems early on with his southpaw right jabs and straight lefts to the head. He could catch Wilder with the left and drop him. But I think Wilder will be smart enough to use his jab following it up by a straight right to Zhang’s head, a punch that works well against southpaws, dropping him to get the knockout win inside three rounds.”

RUDY HERNANDEZ: (TRAINER): WILDER TKO

“Strong punchers, according to Parker who fought them both. Wilder is training knowing this is his last chance at getting a title shot or he’ll have to retire. I see this fight at a slow pace, round after round. Both touching, when the explosion happens and Wilder right hand lands flush and hurts Zhang, he may not get dropped but the ref steps in and waves the fight off somewhere between six and eight rounds.”

Final Tally: Zhang 12-8

Questions and/or comments can be sent to Anson at elraincoat@live.co.uk.

Follow @AnsonWainwright

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