DIMES: The Warriors’ 2024 Draft Lottery chances and conventional wisdom

Warriors beat writer Danny Emerman shares his thoughts on the NBA playoffs and beyond.

General consensus says this is a good year for the Warriors to give up the first round draft pick they traded away in 2019.

Experts consider this a weak rookie class. If the Warriors’ top-four protected pick owed to the Blazers doesn’t convey this year, it rolls over to the next year, as a top-1 protected pick in the hyped Cooper Flagg draft. The Warriors would be better off with a 2025 pick than a top one this year, the thinking goes.

But conventional wisdom, in this case, is overthinking it. Of course, the Warriors should want to luck into a top-four pick on Sunday night’s Draft Lottery.

If the ping pong balls bounce the Warriors from 14 into the top-four (3.37% chance), they’d keep the pick and get to select either a potential plug-and-play contributor or flip the asset to a team in search of instant rookie gratification.

In an environment in which the degree of difficulty for building a contender around 36-year-old Steph Curry increases with each passing year, having a top pick now would speed things up. It would give general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. more options in an offseason that requires a home run swing to return Golden State to title contention.

The 2013 Giannis Antetokounmpo draft was also considered a weak class by prognosticators. So was the 2020 COVID draft with Anthony Edwards (and James Wiseman). History says that there will be a gem this year. Get Dunleavy — who crushed last year’s draft — a chance to unearth one.

Prying open the championship window for Curry should remain the omnipresent goal. Waiting for a pick in a “better” draft next year runs the risk of Curry (and Draymond Green) diminishing in the intervening season, making a 2025 rookie extraneous to the late-dynasty cause. 2025 might be too late.

Given the Warriors’ unique situation, think about it like the time value of draft picks. A pick now is worth more than a pick tomorrow.

Catapulting from 14 into the top-four wouldn’t be unprecedented, either. Golden State has better odds than the 1993 Magic, who won the first overall pick (Chris Webber) with 1.5% odds. The Bulls in 2008 had a 1.7% chance of winning the Derrick Rose lottery.

All it takes is a little luck. Getting a dynasty off life support requires plenty of that.

The Minnesota gap

It’s clear the Warriors have a lot of work to do to return anywhere close to title contention.

To see how much ground they need to make up to catch the remaining playoff field, look no further than the Timberwolves’ defense.

The Timberwolves’ traps, full-court pressure, rotations and close-outs are clinical. What Minnesota wings Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker — tenacious athletes with length — did to Jamal Murray in the first two games of the teams’ Western Conference Semifinal series was stunning.

Minnesota’s defense swarms. The Timberwolves are aggressive and handsy. Most of all, they make multiple efforts each possession — something only the most disciplined, athletic teams can do.

There’s no clear path for Golden State to get to that level of activity. The Warriors can get more disciplined, stay in their shell and funnel action towards Green and Trayce Jackson-Davis, but making consistent multiple efforts isn’t going to be in the cards for veterans like Curry and Klay Thompson. Without major personnel changes, defense might just be out of the question.

Is Steph still the NBA’s best point guard?

On his podcast, Draymond Green was asked if Jalen Brunson’s epic playoff run has made the New York Knicks star the best point guard in the NBA.

“Steph Curry (is the best) in the NBA,” Green said after using an expletive. “Dude, are you crazy? Next. That’s ridiculous.”

Brunson has been a revelation, but there’s levels to this. Any team starting from scratch would rather have Curry.

Still, Curry’s time atop the positional ladder might be over. Again, he’s 36. He’s not going to be the greatest forever.

Much of Curry’s impact goes beyond the box score, but his statistical case is waning.

A look at 2023-24 leaders among point guards

Points per game:1. Luka Doncic (33.9)2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30.1)3. Jalen Brunson (28.7)4. Devin Booker (27.1)5. De’Aaron Fox (26.6)6. Steph Curry (26.4)

Win Shares per game: 1. SGA (14.6)2. Luka (12.0)3. Brunson (11.2)4. Booker (9.2)5. Tyrese Haliburton (9.0)Big gap11. Steph Curry (7.2)**Curry ranked behind Mike Conley, James Harden, Fred VanVleet, Damian Lillard and Tyrese Maxey

True Shooting Percentage: 1. SGA (.636)2. Mike Conley (.627)3. Luka (.617)4. Curry (.616)

Player Efficiency Rating: 1. SGA (29.3)2. Luka (28.1)3. Brunson (23.4)4. Haliburton (23.3)5. Booker (21.9)6. TJ McConnell (20.9)7. Jamal Murray (20.7)8. Curry (20.6)

Box Plus-Minus: 1, Luka (9.9)2. SGA (9.0)3. Haliburton (6.9)4. Brunson (5.8)5. Curry (5.2)

You can’t trust every statistic — especially those that rank TJ McConnell over Curry — but good luck finding a category outside of 3-point makes that Curry still leads.

Still elite? For sure. Best point guard in the game? You be the judge.

First-team All “He’s Still In The League?” (playoff edition)

PG: Patty Mills

Guards in Mills’ 2009 draft class: Curry, James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, Ricky Rubio, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, Tyreke Evans, Darren Collison, Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson, Jonny Flynn. What a list!

SG: T.J. Warren

He’s bounced around after his 2021 foot surgery, and now has a front-row ticket to the greatest show in the world with the Timberwolves. Warren averaged one point in 11 minutes per game this season. We’ll always have Bubble TJ Warren.

SF: The Morris Twins

Marcus (Cleveland) started a game in Round 1, while Markieff is getting DNPs in Dallas. The twins have played for a combined 16 teams in their careers. Being 6-foot-8 sure helps with career longevity.

PF: James Johnson

Also an all-time “Don’t Mess With Him” enforcer. One wrong step from Bobby Portis in the first round against Johnson’s Pacers and things could’ve ended very, very poorly for Portis. One vote for Johnson to have a Udonis Haslem-esque end to his career, with whichever franchise he fancies.

C: Tristan Thompson

The inspiration for this esteemed honor.