2023-24 Season In Review: Rickard Rakell

Rickard Rakell had a terrible start to the 2023-24 season that helped drive the narrative around his performance for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Vitals

Player: Rickard Rakell
Born: May 5, 1993 (Age 31 currently, 2023-24 was his age-30 season)
Height: 6’ 1”
Weight: 195 pounds
Hometown: Sundbyberg, Sweden
Shoots: Right
Draft: 2011 first round (30th overall) by the Anaheim Ducks
2023-24 Statistics: 70 games played, 15 goals, 22 assists = 37 points
Contract Status: Rakell is signed through the end of the 2027-28 season at a salary cap hit of $5 million per season. He has a modified no-trade clause for the remainder of that contract.

Monthly Splits

Via Yahoo

Rakell was probably one of the biggest disappointments on the roster this season, especially when compared to how productive he was during the 2022-23 season when he was one of the Penguins’ best and most consistent forwards. Every line he was a part of played better and produced more when he was a part of it, and he was looking like one of the few bright spots to come out of the Ron Hextall years.

He did not repeat that same level of play this season, especially over the first three months.

Rakell got off to an absolutely brutal start with just two goals in his first 23 games and was mostly a non-factor through the end of December. The impact play and ability to help drive any line he was on also seemed to disappear.

He did finish a lot stronger with 13 goals over his last 47 games, a goal-scoring rate that comes out to around 23 goals per 82 games.

Story of the Season

After scoring 28 goals and being a useful player up and down the lineup in 2022-23, Rakell failed to score a goal and had just five assists through the first 19 games of the season. In a lot of ways that set the tone for the perception and narrative of his season, even as his production started to increase later in the year.

Once he finally scored a goal he did score closer to the rate we saw last season. He just didn’t always seem as impactful or look as consistent, and you still can not erase how unproductive he was in the first quarter of the season. The Penguins could have used some additional scoring at that point and were relying on Rakell to provide a lot of it as part of their top-six forward group.

It did not always happen.

They did find some success late in the season when Rakell and Evgeni Malkin were united alongside new forward acquisition Michael Bunting.

In 193 minutes together the Malkin-Bunting-Rakell line outscored teams by a 15-9 margin and averaged 4.66 goals per 60 minutes together.

Regular season 5v5 advanced stats

Data via Natural Stat Trick. Ranking is out of 17 forwards on the team who qualified by playing a minimum of 150 minutes.

Corsi For%: 54.2% (3rd)
Goals For%: 53.0% (8th)
xGF%: 51.8% (9th)
Scoring Chance %: 53.7% (4th)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 53.4% (10th)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 10.1% (3rd)
On-ice save%: .904% (14th)
Goals/60: 0.69 (10th)
Assist/60: 1.07 (8th)
Points/60: 1.75 (8th)

— There were a few areas where Rakell rated pretty favorably, especially when it came to controlling total shot attempts and scoring chances, while the Penguins also maintained a fairly high overall shooting percentage when he was on the ice. But while he was generally among the top-eight or nine forwards on the team in most categories, that is a small drop from the 2022-23 season where he was consistently among the top-four or five in those same categories.

Highlights

Rakell scored career goal No. 200 this season with a spinning rocket of a shot against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

He can be a great playmaker and that was on display here to set up Sidney Crosby for an incredible deflection goal.

This is probably one of the biggest highlights of the 2023-24 season, not just for Rakell, but also for the Penguins as a whole. The Penguins overcome a 3-1 third period deficit with a huge comeback in New Jersey for a regulation win. Rakell scored the game-winning goal with just under four minutes to play. This is around the time it looked like the Penguins might actually be able to pull it off and actually make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Questions to ponder

Was the overly production 2022-23 season the outlier for Rakell, and was this season more in line with a realistic level of production for him?

Especially now he as he starts to get into his 30s?

Overall, Rakell averaged 0.21 goals per game and 0.53 points per game for the season.

I made this point here recently, but just compare that to his production from the past few years:

2023-24: 0.21 goals per game, 0.53 points per game
2022-23: 0.34 goals per game, 0.73 points per game
2021-22: 0.29 goals per game, 0.59 points per game
2020-21: 0.17 goals per game, 0.54 points per game
2019-20: 0.23 goals per game, 0.65 points per game
2018-19: 0.26 goals per game, 0.62 points per game

It is pretty clear which season over the past six years was the outlier and what the consistent level of production has been. He has basically been around a 17-18 goal and 43-45 point scorer with a shooting percentage under 10 percent per 82 games.

That percentage jumped up to nearly 12 percent a year ago. He did not repeat it or sustain it this season.

Ideal 2024-25

There is a good chance that Rakell can still be a solid possession and scoring chance driver, and there is always a need and role for that. At a minimum, he seems likely to score 15 goals and roughly 40 points. Ideally if he gets a little puck luck back and can see his shooting percentage take a spike back up above 10 percent it is not out of the question to see 20 goals or more. Especially if he can continue to build some chemistry with Malkin and Bunting.

Bottom line

Rakell’s contract is now one of the many long-term contracts on the roster for players over the age of 30 that have probably already played their best hockey. There is a chance he bounces back, but there is a greater chance what we saw in 2023-24 is what we should expect in 2024-25 and in future seasons. If the Penguins could find a taker for his contract this offseason to clear out some salary cap space they would probably be wise to strongly consider it.