2023-24 Season in Review: Reilly Smith

He was supposed to be the team’s big addition up front, it didn’t work out so well

Vitals

Player: Reilly Smith
Born: April 1, 1991 (Age 33 currently, 2023-24 was his age-32 season)
Height: 6’ 1”
Weight: 185 pounds
Hometown: Mimico, ON
Shoots: Left
Draft: 2009 third round (69th overall) by the Dallas Stars
2023-24 Statistics: 76 games played, 13 goals, 27 assists = 40 points
Contract Status: Smith is signed for one more season through 2024-25 on an Iannual average value (cap hit) of $5.0 million. As of July 1, he will have an eight teams listed on his no trade clause.

Monthly Splits

via Yahoo!

It was a season that started out with so much promise and then one you can see fizzle out in January. Smith started red hot, was productive and played his way up to being a 16-17 minute per game player in November and December. There was an injury involved, Smith was knocked out with an upper body injury on Jan. 12th vs Vancouver (but was already shuffled to the third line by then). Smith returned to game action in February following the All-Star break and bye week.

Another interesting split is November 13th. Why that date? Smith was excused from a Penguin practice to make his way down and attend the Golden Knights’ ceremony at the White House in DC to celebrate with his former teammates one last time. The splits for Smith around the event were startling.

Pre-Nov 13th: 13 games: 6 goals, 6 assists = 12 points
Post-Nov 13th: 63 games: 7G+21A = 28 points

Call it a coincidence or not, but the player who returned from DC only produced a single assist (and no goals) in the next 12 games after his torrid start in Pittsburgh. Granted, he wasn’t expected to keep a hot start forever and it’s mighty convenient to point this string out, but there was much made out and read into whether Smith “wanted to be in Pittsburgh” and how he played. Gonna go out on a limb and understand that no one wants to win the Cup then become a salary cap causality before the hangover wears off. It surely wasn’t intentional or for a lack of effort but conscious or not the cold streak started right after the time he saw his old friends one more time.

Story of the Season

Smith himself summed his personal year up well at the end of the season in April.

“Frustrating. Obviously, (I) didn’t live up to my own standard or expectation that I wanted to,” Smith said of his first year in Pittsburgh. “So those things, they’re hard to swallow.”

GM Kyle Dubas also added context in that Smith’s line got jostled around and after the first six weeks of the season was a tough time for him to find a place to fit in.

“Reilly Smith (had a) great start to the year with (Malkin) and (Rakell), especially when (Rakell) wasn’t doing well,” Dubas said. “Then, from mid-November on, (Rakell) was hurt, (Malkin) wasn’t as good and I thought that affected Reilly. Very different linemates than what he played with in Vegas, (Jonathan) Marchessault and (William) Karlsson, so big adaptation for him.”

By the end of the season, Smith found himself playing on a line with Lars Eller and Valtteri Puustinen. They were one of the better lines Pittsburgh had all season, with a 70% goal share (7 for, 3 against) and had strong expected numbers (via Moneypuck). The Smith-Puustinen winger pairing also popped up as looking like it could work when centered by Evgeni Malkin, albeit in another short sample.

Regular season 5v5 advanced stats

Data via Natural Stat Trick. Ranking is out of 17 forwards on the team who qualified by playing a minimum of 150 minutes.

Corsi For%: 51.5% (9th)
Goals For%: 53.2% (7th)
xGF%: 53.1% (7th)
Scoring Chance %: 52.6% (7th)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 54.8% (7th)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 8.35% (12th)
On-ice save%: .922% (6th)
Goals/60: 0.73 (8th)
Assist/60: 1.09 (6th)
Points/60: 1.82 (7th)

—Reconciling Smith’s numbers can be a challenge. From strictly a puck possession year, he was as advertised and performed well in many respects. The Pens out-shot and out-chanced opposition while Smith was out there. He didn’t shoot a ton (10th among forwards in shots/60) and didn’t shoot well when he did. But he did create via his playmaking.

—The power play adds into why Smith’s offensive numbers fell short. He had just one PPG on the season and a modest 3.55 P/60 there. (He had six PPG in 2022-23 in Vegas). Smith wasn’t brought in to be a top-unit power play player but added very little to the Pens’ man advantage.

Charts n’at

Via HockeyViz and JFresh Hockey

Smith found his most success in the early going of the year with Rickard Rakell and Evgeni Malkin. That line didn’t last long as mentioned above, and gradually Smith got shuffled down to Lars Eller. The team tried one more time post-injury to give Smith/Malkin a chance, but it wasn’t to be. For most of the second half of the season, Smith did skate and form that intereresting partnership with Puustinen.

Come to Pittsburgh, fit in by leaving goals on the ice. Smith was unable to convert from in tight and as a result ended up with fewer actual goals than the accumulated chances.

But, as usually is the case, it’s not just as simple as “get to the net, find goals”. Smith’s shot chart shows plenty of activity from in tight. Many of his goals (in red) were from a little bit of distance in the middle of the ice, as also evidenced in the shading one graph up. This looks like a player who can still use his shot to find the back of the net, just ended up shooting 5.6% and failed to convert or have much good luck.

Smith’s WAR% in the top right went from 74% in 2022-23 down to 33% in Pittsburgh. He had some good things going with assists and defense, but the lack of finishing was a big bite.

Aside from the finishing, there’s a lot to like. Smith was one of the few Penguins to be dangerous off the rush. He’s not a fast skater but still finds ways to be effective in the offensive zone as far as generating chance

And while Smith’s season offensively can only be described with words like frustrating and lacking, his defensive results deserve a little spotlight and praise. His expected 5v5 goals against in the public modeling was in the 38-39 range over 76 games. His results were as good, only being on the ice for 37 actual goals. For $5 million and a big piece of the forward revamp, the Pens were understandably looking for a little more than “very solid middle-six winger” but that is what they ended up receiving.

Highlights

Questions to ponder

Questions about Smith’s status with the Pens may get sorted out this offseason. The Penguins found the left wing juice they were looking for in Michael Bunting, who surely has passed Smith on the depth chart and will take a top-six spot. Does the team look to get younger and free up some cap space by moving Smith in a trade this summer? Are they content with him as a third line or swing player for depth? At 33, Smith’s days of being a 25G-50-55ish point winger might be over. Or just need the right spot to be showcased.

Ideal 2024-25

The ideal would be a bounce-back of what’s been a solid pro that has produced over 500 points in 840 career games. Maybe he’s the power on the third line (again potentially with Puustinen), helps more on the PK and gets back near 20 goals and 50 points while bringing the suppressive defensive numbers. That’s not flashy and not the best use of the cap space if he fails to hit an ideal scenario, but a team can do worse than having a reliable, well-rounded winger who can reasonably play on any line they want to put him on for a given game.

Then again, maybe the ideal would be an “easy come, easy go” situation where the Pens move on from Smith just as they got him in an offseason trade to shuffle the deck and give all parties a fresh start in 2024-25. Change will certainly be coming to Pittsburgh’s lineup and by way of only having one year left on his contract and a quality resume/reputation, Smith ought to be a moveable asset if the team opts to move in that direction.

Bottom line

Reilly Smith was supposed to be a value add and help set the tone for the Pens in the 2023-24 season. Maybe in retrospect he did just that, but it didn’t work out the way anyone would have hoped. His goals went from 26 last season in Vegas to 13 this year. His playmaking and defensive impact were there — it wasn’t a total disaster or as empty as it felt in moments, but Smith left everyone wanting a little bit more and the Penguins came up empty themselves.