State of the Emmys race: ‘Unfrosted’ gets a post-premiere boost
Given its warm critical reception and past PGA and SAG Award notices, it makes sense that “Mr. Monk’s Last Case” has maintained a massive lead over its Best TV Movie competitors ever since we opened our 2024 Emmys predictions center. However, because the original “Monk” was never even nominated for Best Comedy Series during its eight-season run, the one-off Peacock continuation can’t exactly be considered a shoo-in. In truth, it faces quite a few strong challengers, including the laugh-packed Netflix offering “Unfrosted.”
Hours before its May 3 premiere, “Unfrosted” rose above its 100/1 Gold Derby odds and pulled ahead of both “Finestkind” and “Genie” to become this year’s seventh most likely TV movie nominee. Its next immediate challenge is passing sixth place runner “Scoop” (also from Netflix), which is currently a predicted nominee among our editors and experts.
Limited series acting hopefuls Nicole Kidman (“Expats”) and Johnny Flynn (“Ripley”) also recently improved upon their 100/1 odds, although the same can’t yet be said for Kidman’s show. Conversely, “Ripley” has now replaced “Masters of the Air” as the first alternate outside of our predicted Best Limited Series lineup, while star Andrew Scott has moved into second place behind Best TV Movie/Limited Series Actor frontrunner Jon Hamm (“Fargo”).
Over the past week, our 2,300+ Emmy prognosticators came to a consensus on two new predicted nominees. The first was Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”), who joined Hamm and Scott by displacing the three-time Best Comedy Actor-winning star of “Mr. Monk’s Last Case,” Tony Shalhoub. Our Best Drama Series roster was then shaken up by the addition of “Fallout” at the expense of “Loki,” possibly previewing a similar switch involving respective lead actors Walton Goggins and Tom Hiddleston, the former of whom already has our editors’ support.
Aside from Scott, other already predicted performers who moved closer to first place this week are Anna Sawai (“Shōgun”), Lionel Boyce (“The Bear”), Kristin Scott Thomas (“Slow Horses”), and Mark Duplass (“The Morning Show”). Actors on the rise who have not yet reached overall predicted nominee status include Carol Burnett (“Palm Royale”), Nava Mau (“Baby Reindeer”), and “Shōgun” cast mates Moeka Hoshi and Tadanobu Asano.
Several of our predictor subgroups are already on board with Hoshi or Asano being nominated, with the All-Star Top 24 expecting recognition for both dramatic featured players. In another deviation from the general consensus, our experts are backing Burnett in the comedy supporting actress race rather than her costar, Allison Janney.
Further predictor subset analysis proves that not everyone is sold on the generally expected acting winners. Both our editors and experts predict that drama actress and limited supporting actress leaders Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”) and Jennifer Jason Leigh (“Fargo”) will be beaten by Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) and Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”). Also worth noting is that Jean Smart (“Hacks”) outranks general comedy actress frontrunner Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) in the opinion of our Top 24 users, who earned that distinction by achieving last year’s best prediction scores.
Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.
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