2024 ACM Awards predictions: Male and Female Artist of the Year

The 2024 Academy of Country Music Awards are coming up on May 16, honoring the best in country music. The nominees include a top-notch collection of stars including Chris Stapleton, Lainey Wilson, Kacey Musgraves, Morgan Wallen, Jelly Roll and Luke Combs, among others. All of these and more are nominated in different artists categories, which can either be a good sign of awards momentum for the coming season, or the culmination of a successful (or not) awards season depending on the timing of each artist’s rollout. But what’s even more important than getting nominated? Winning, of course. Let’s consider who will take home two of the biggest awards of the night, and whether we’re in for a repeat of last year’s champs.

Male Artist of the Year
This is a tough race where all five nominees pose a serious threat to win. Chris Stapleton should, on paper, be the least likely, since his album “Higher” didn’t really make a huge splash on country radio nor was it particularly celebrated among his discography. Then again, Chris Stapleton is Chris Stapleton, and he has won before even when not at his peak (he’s a three-time winner overall). That said, momentum is not really on his side.

One could then assume it’s going to Morgan Wallen. He did win last year, and he has even more reason to do so this year after the blockbuster success of his album “One Thing at a Time.” It launched a myriad of hit singles, including the number-one hit of the entire year, “Last Night,” and additional country-radio chart toppers “Thinkin’ Bout Me,” “Thought You Should Know” and “You Proof.” Then again, voters could also default to Luke Combs, who, although not as commercially dominant as Wallen, had a huge hit with his cover of “Fast Car” and also had two more number-ones in 2023 with “Going, Going, Gone” and “Love You Anyways.”

But what if it goes to Jelly Roll? The breakout star has had a fantastic year, topping the country charts with his hits “Need a Favor,” “Save Me” and “Son of a Sinner.” What Jelly Roll has that the others don’t is a great narrative. The star has been going viral in the last year for his uplifting life story: he didn’t give up on his dream despite having been incarcerated. Such a compelling narrative, along with his hits and a Grammy nomination for Best New Artist, could mean that the star is bound to win something. After all, voters will surely want him to get up there and give another captivating speech like he did at the CMAs.

Last but not least, there’s Cody Johnson, who has had a big year with the success of his chart-topping single “The Painter,” and he also did really well in the nominations overall, receiving five. I’m going out on a limb and saying Jelly takes this, simply because his story seems too good to pass up on. Combs, Stapleton and Wallen have all won before, so there might not be any urge to give this to them again. If the narrative isn’t enough, though, Wallen might repeat.

Female Artist of the Year
Just like last year, a Lainey Wilson victory here is pretty much inevitable. The singer-songwriter has taken Nashville by storm ever since her debut, and last year’s Album of the Year-winning “Bell Bottom Country” has elevated her status even more. She’s also the only woman this year nominated for the all-gender Entertainer of the Year award, which shows how strong she is in the female category.

But if there’s a chance that someone else triumphs to mix things up, maybe it’ll be Kelsea Ballerini, who is also nominated for Album of the Year this year for “Rolling Up the Welcome Mat,” due to her acclaim and the fact that she has never won this particular category before despite being nominated almost every year since her breakout (this is her seventh nom).

Or it might be Megan Moroney, who’s having a breakout year thanks to her country radio hit “Tennessee Orange” and seems to be the next big thing as far as female country stars go. That said, considering Wilson just won a Grammy and swept last fall’s CMAs, it’s hard to think voters won’t go for her again. And it’s deserved: last year she notched a couple more major hits, including the number-one “Watermelon Moonshine.”

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