How will the Royals balance short-term and long-term winning?
Are the Royals in “win-now” mode?
The Royals have surprised many around the league by playing well to begin the year. Already projection systems like ZIPS have revised their predicted win total for the Royals upwards to around .500 due to what looks like an “objectively stronger roster” than it appeared to be a few weeks ago with their playoff odds rising to 25 percent.
In a Central Division where no other teams made significant additions, the Royals have a very real chance of hanging around in contention for a few months and possibly even making a post-season run, something that seemed unthinkable for a team coming off an 106-loss season. The Royals are playing loose and without expectations, or as Matthew LaMar wrote earlier this year, they are playing with “the most fun cards in all of sports: the “nothing to lose” card.”
But how seriously will the Royals take their title chances this year? They have significantly improved but still have flaws on the roster. Objectively, this isn’t a team that should be able to hang with the Yankees, Braves, or Dodgers this fall if they even make the post-season. They have a young roster, with many players under club control for several seasons, particularly star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. This is a team that could have several bites at the apple, with perhaps better teams down the road.
There was a report this week that the Royals had preliminary talks with the Marlins about acquiring Luis Arraez, a trade that certainly would have required a package of 3-4 prospects. It is encouraging to see the Royals explore any avenue to improve this team. But it also raises the question of how much of the future they are willing to sacrifice to win now?
We have already seen the Royals sacrifice a bit of the future when they traded David Sandlin to Boston for reliever John Schreiber. While not a top prospect in the system, Sandlin was ranked #20 by Baseball America and had shown some promising improvement with his pitches this off-season. It certainly wasn’t the kind of move a team typically makes while rebuilding, but it showed that the Royals wanted to move into the next phase of development - winning.
But how far are they willing to move into the “win now” phase? The farm system is a bit thin right now, so to acquire a significant piece that would move the needle this summer might require moving a Ben Kudrna or Blake Wolters or even a Frank Mozzicato or Blake Mitchell. Will the Royals sacrifice what little farm system talent they have in order to win now?
One could argue that the farm system is in such bad shape, it makes more sense to try to win now. The Royals have struggled in player development for several years, maybe the best way to build their organization is to use prospects to acquire proven talent, rather than try to develop players on their own. The Royals have a window of opportunity this year. They have pitchers that are off to a great start, Bobby Witt Jr. is playing at an MVP level, Salvador Perez is still a productive offensive player, they have stayed relatively healthy. Things have gone well. There may not be more reinforcements coming the next few years. What if 2024 is the best chance of contention?
One of the most underrated skills a general manager has to have in baseball is honest, objective self-evaluation of the organization. Dayton Moore did a lot of great things, but over his last few years his ability to judge where the organization was in the success cycle was impaired. If you feel you’re closer to contention than you actually are, you make bad decisions like failing to trade players at their peak value. The Royals failed to trade players like Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield, and Scott Barlow for their peak value because they thought they were close to contention
But at the same time, if you fail to strike while the iron is hot, thinking better teams are to come, you lose out on your opportunity to make a post-season run. When the Royals had a surprise run in 2003, they only made mid-season trades at the fringes, reluctant to trade prospects that were part of the future. Most of the prospects didn’t pan out and the team wouldn’t sniff contention for another decade.
J.J. Picollo’s Royals have played much better than expected, so this is a nice problem to have. But how the Royals confront this summer will have major implications for the future of the organization. Hopefully the team is able to accurately assess when their best chance of success will be, whether that is this year or down the road.